Russia invades Ukraine

paedubucher said:
Russia will have more benefits from abiding by the peace deal than from continuing a war (or starting another war, for that matter), and so will Ukraine. The US no longer has to finance a war in Ukraine it cannot win. So in my opinion, a peace deal under Trump would be a win-win-win situation.
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Peace is always better than war, though the root cause of the problem which is the need for a new security architecture in Europe that satisfies Russia would not be addressed.

In my view, Trump wants to make deal in order to stop bleeding of USD, separate Russia from China and divert USA focus to China while Europe would take on Russia in the long term.

Nothing too noble but at least they are engaging with the other side, unlike the previous administration.
 
Yes. We can debate all we want about the background of the war, and how a possible peace deal should or might look once it happens. But from what we observe, the Trump administration is showing with its actions that it does not intend to force Russia to make any concessions.

When Trump said to Zelensky that he's got no cards to play, it is because he and his administration have taken them away. Including cards that do not really cost the US taxpayers anything. Or what does it cost the US taxpayers that the US gives Ukraine early warnings about oncoming RU missile strikes? When the US stops sharing intelligence with Ukraine, that's what it means in practice.

And as it happens at a point where Ukraine are indeed taking the initiative on parts of the frontline, it shows all to clearly that the US leadership are in no way or form interested in anything that could strengthen the Ukrainian position before (potential) negotiations.
 
Neither the cost to the taxpayer nor an isolationist policy can be considered the basis of Trump's stance. Like most of his stances - I can't call them policy because they're not coherent - it's mostly about upping his own profile, either in the business-political world with 'contacts' like Putin, or within a select social media audience. It's like watching multiple standalone reality TV programmes, and I'm convinced that's how he sees it too. Short term ratings.

I'm glad to see Europe acting more independently. I didn't think most of Europe would have done anything without the explicit backing of America as of a few months ago. Now most leaders realise that the American leadership's stance can turn on a sixpence, so they have little choice but to make their own decisions. It's going to cause a lot of friction, but realistically, they can't sit and wait to find out what sort of tangent Trump is going to go off on in the next day or two
 
.....This is more of a rhetorical question, posted here for the record. It’s mostly aimed at one user who has put me on their ignore list, so don't bother responding (because all that pacifistic nonsense isn’t solving anything).
.....The question itself: How’s the "don’t escalate politics" approach going? Pretty well, I suppose? "We can’t risk the lives of millions of people" and all that nonsense (because putin is apparently willing to risk them).
.....Also, to the other user who keeps saying, “Tell me how Biden was bad” — yada yada. Yes, he was an angel compared to Trump, but he clearly miscalculated the possibility that he might not be re-elected, which has now put Ukraine and Europe in grave danger. His half-measured approach to Ukraine brought us to this point.
.....putin needed to be contained in the early years of his aggression. The cost of not addressing the problem then is growing every day. And it will continue to grow. Like I said, as long as Ukraine is fighting, Europe has time. But of course, it’s not your country bordering Mordor, so you can sit back and preach leftist pacifism while doing nothing. Keep sitting in your Ivory Tower.
.....(There’s no doubt that Europe must be able to defend itself without the USA. The question is whether it’s too late and how serious the biggest European countries will be about it.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1898359893192507784
 
I heard rumours that the master of dealmaking, a certain Mr. Trump, had a talk with Mr. Putin yesterday. How did that go? Did they agree on a date where Russian soldiers should be out of Ukraine and hostilities brought to an end?

Or did Putin stick to his previous demands, showing that he is a master of the art of "no deal", and follow up with another missile strike later the same day?

/sarcasm.

Unless something very surprising happens, I am convinced that Putin is willing to take the chance on Trump being more inclined to just let Ukraine down 100% than to up the support if Russia refuses all deals. Trump has not said or done much to make him think otherwise.

It is a very dark situation for Ukraine that instead of having the backing of the US in negotiations, they will see the US backing Putin. Unless something drastically different is going on behind the curtains.
 
Absolutely anything can happen where Trump is concerned, including spontaneous U-turns. It's all about ratings with him, not coherent policy.

Reading into some of the reports I've read in recent days, I get the impression Trump can't handle people not doing what he wants, and that may include Putin. If Trump gets egg on his face publicly, I wouldn't put it past him taking completely the opposite stance re Ukraine.
 
Brigantium said:
Absolutely anything can happen where Trump is concerned, including spontaneous U-turns. It's all about ratings with him, not coherent policy.

Reading into some of the reports I've read in recent days, I get the impression Trump can't handle people not doing what he wants, and that may include Putin. If Trump gets egg on his face publicly, I wouldn't put it past him taking completely the opposite stance re Ukraine.
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Something I admire and enjoy in you is how almost all your posts have a calm tone, pure logic and detached from drama.
 
Brigantium said:
Absolutely anything can happen where Trump is concerned, including spontaneous U-turns.
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True, but so far the "Ukraine bad, Russia not as bad as everyone says" stance is one where Trump has been more consistent than he usually is. On other issues, like tariffs, he has changed his mind back and forth more times than I can remember since he took office in January. But on Russia, he has been consistently softer than on most other countries the US deals with. Except of course Israel, but the US-Israel relation is a topic on its own.

On the conflict which this thread is about, Trump has been keen on using the whip on Ukraine while offering Putin the carrots.
 
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