Russia invades Ukraine

Russia will have more benefits from abiding by the peace deal than from continuing a war (or starting another war, for that matter), and so will Ukraine. The US no longer has to finance a war in Ukraine it cannot win. So in my opinion, a peace deal under Trump would be a win-win-win situation.

Peace is always better than war, though the root cause of the problem which is the need for a new security architecture in Europe that satisfies Russia would not be addressed.

In my view, Trump wants to make deal in order to stop bleeding of USD, separate Russia from China and divert USA focus to China while Europe would take on Russia in the long term.

Nothing too noble but at least they are engaging with the other side, unlike the previous administration.
 
Yes. We can debate all we want about the background of the war, and how a possible peace deal should or might look once it happens. But from what we observe, the Trump administration is showing with its actions that it does not intend to force Russia to make any concessions.

When Trump said to Zelensky that he's got no cards to play, it is because he and his administration have taken them away. Including cards that do not really cost the US taxpayers anything. Or what does it cost the US taxpayers that the US gives Ukraine early warnings about oncoming RU missile strikes? When the US stops sharing intelligence with Ukraine, that's what it means in practice.

And as it happens at a point where Ukraine are indeed taking the initiative on parts of the frontline, it shows all to clearly that the US leadership are in no way or form interested in anything that could strengthen the Ukrainian position before (potential) negotiations.
 
Neither the cost to the taxpayer nor an isolationist policy can be considered the basis of Trump's stance. Like most of his stances - I can't call them policy because they're not coherent - it's mostly about upping his own profile, either in the business-political world with 'contacts' like Putin, or within a select social media audience. It's like watching multiple standalone reality TV programmes, and I'm convinced that's how he sees it too. Short term ratings.

I'm glad to see Europe acting more independently. I didn't think most of Europe would have done anything without the explicit backing of America as of a few months ago. Now most leaders realise that the American leadership's stance can turn on a sixpence, so they have little choice but to make their own decisions. It's going to cause a lot of friction, but realistically, they can't sit and wait to find out what sort of tangent Trump is going to go off on in the next day or two
 
.....This is more of a rhetorical question, posted here for the record. It’s mostly aimed at one user who has put me on their ignore list, so don't bother responding (because all that pacifistic nonsense isn’t solving anything).
.....The question itself: How’s the "don’t escalate politics" approach going? Pretty well, I suppose? "We can’t risk the lives of millions of people" and all that nonsense (because putin is apparently willing to risk them).
.....Also, to the other user who keeps saying, “Tell me how Biden was bad” — yada yada. Yes, he was an angel compared to Trump, but he clearly miscalculated the possibility that he might not be re-elected, which has now put Ukraine and Europe in grave danger. His half-measured approach to Ukraine brought us to this point.
.....putin needed to be contained in the early years of his aggression. The cost of not addressing the problem then is growing every day. And it will continue to grow. Like I said, as long as Ukraine is fighting, Europe has time. But of course, it’s not your country bordering Mordor, so you can sit back and preach leftist pacifism while doing nothing. Keep sitting in your Ivory Tower.
.....(There’s no doubt that Europe must be able to defend itself without the USA. The question is whether it’s too late and how serious the biggest European countries will be about it.)

 
I heard rumours that the master of dealmaking, a certain Mr. Trump, had a talk with Mr. Putin yesterday. How did that go? Did they agree on a date where Russian soldiers should be out of Ukraine and hostilities brought to an end?

Or did Putin stick to his previous demands, showing that he is a master of the art of "no deal", and follow up with another missile strike later the same day?

/sarcasm.

Unless something very surprising happens, I am convinced that Putin is willing to take the chance on Trump being more inclined to just let Ukraine down 100% than to up the support if Russia refuses all deals. Trump has not said or done much to make him think otherwise.

It is a very dark situation for Ukraine that instead of having the backing of the US in negotiations, they will see the US backing Putin. Unless something drastically different is going on behind the curtains.
 
Absolutely anything can happen where Trump is concerned, including spontaneous U-turns. It's all about ratings with him, not coherent policy.

Reading into some of the reports I've read in recent days, I get the impression Trump can't handle people not doing what he wants, and that may include Putin. If Trump gets egg on his face publicly, I wouldn't put it past him taking completely the opposite stance re Ukraine.
 
Absolutely anything can happen where Trump is concerned, including spontaneous U-turns. It's all about ratings with him, not coherent policy.

Reading into some of the reports I've read in recent days, I get the impression Trump can't handle people not doing what he wants, and that may include Putin. If Trump gets egg on his face publicly, I wouldn't put it past him taking completely the opposite stance re Ukraine.

Something I admire and enjoy in you is how almost all your posts have a calm tone, pure logic and detached from drama.
 
Absolutely anything can happen where Trump is concerned, including spontaneous U-turns.
True, but so far the "Ukraine bad, Russia not as bad as everyone says" stance is one where Trump has been more consistent than he usually is. On other issues, like tariffs, he has changed his mind back and forth more times than I can remember since he took office in January. But on Russia, he has been consistently softer than on most other countries the US deals with. Except of course Israel, but the US-Israel relation is a topic on its own.

On the conflict which this thread is about, Trump has been keen on using the whip on Ukraine while offering Putin the carrots.
 
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Things like this are now happening within Russia's army. (Russian military commanders organize death matches in a pit between subordinates.)


And these things are happening in the West:

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And to me, those protests are beyond cringe. When I know—even just have a glimpse—of what barbarians are capable of, of what’s really going on behind enemy lines... and then I see these almost virtual attacks on art in the West… it feels hopeless. Because the canyon of misunderstanding between the West and authoritarian regimes is massive. In those regimes, brute force is exactly that—brutal. It means killing, murdering, wiping the weak and innocent from the face of the Earth.

Please, don’t take this the wrong way—I may not be explaining myself perfectly—but here’s what I mean: The West is moving toward prosperity, toward inclusivity, toward a “live and let live” mindset. And that’s good, it’s admirable. But sometimes it feels like the West is starting to forget what the real world is still like. Real, primal atrocities still exist. And they’re not some faraway myth—they're happening just across the fence.

We’ve all seen post-apocalyptic films. And deep down, we all know that if some catastrophe happened—no power, no fuel, no infrastructure—the civilized shell would crack within days. Maybe even hours. It would become about survival, and let’s not kid ourselves with “I’d never compromise my conscience.” In that scenario, we’d all do things we’re not proud of.

What I’m trying to say is this: dreams and aspirations for a better world are noble, they’re the goal. But reality—here and now—is still brutal. And democratic leaders need to wake up and ramp up their support for Ukraine. Because brute force can only be met with equal force. Negotiation and diplomacy are great, but only when both sides genuinely commit—not when one just pretends.

Maybe it’s unfair to compare two very different things—one, a vile and murderous war, the other, a performance protest—but in my view, that contrast helps reveal the disconnect. It shows how the West tries to operate these days… and what’s literally happening right next door.

That’s my take, as an Eastern European, if you will. I vote for the Western way of life with both arms and legs—but at the same time, I’m not fully integrated into it. I can still feel the monster breathing down our necks.

Reality is still horrific in many parts of the world. And if we, the collective West, truly want to live and thrive in a civilized way—yes, even to throw a paint at paintings sometimes—we must also have teeth. Fangs. Ones that are visible. Sharp. Dangerous. We need to remember how to growl. Because our enemies don’t speak any other language.
 
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I also don't like people with a program of Khmer Rouge v 2.0 making spectacle and potentially destroying cultural heritage in the process, but as for this actually fitting here in this thread, there's one thing I learned relatively recently (and which the West seems to conveniently forget) - Russia is the originator and to this day, the biggest world expert on hybrid wars.

Ever since the Tsarist regime, where they were trying many things in order to make their enemies destroy themselves (it is suspected that even the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, the most famous antisemitic conspirational pamphlet is a product of the Tsarist police; it is known that Russia used to spread the idea of Russo-centric Panslavism especially into the German sphere of influence in order to incite public unrest and disagreements - several of our historians have written and spoken on this and we were one of the foremost victims of that - but mainly from people who never went to Russia at all, those that have (like Borovsky) lost their illusions very soon), it continued in the Soviet Union and it still continues now.
This is still the same country.

In 1920s and 1930s, when the Communist party in my country took a hard turn towards more or less hardcore (pseudo-)Stalinism and lost members and especially money, about a quarter of its budget was paid directly from Moscow. After the war, that very Communist party managed to get ahold of the office that re-distributed property after the forced eviction of Germans - so the Communists like Smrkovsky were travelling across the country, handing out real estate in exchange for promise of a vote in the upcoming election. Literally.
Orwell writes in his diaries how disappointed he was to learn the "republican" side of Spanish Civil War was mostly getting eaten up from inside by the Moscow shills, despite it originally being an honest movement.

Why am I saying all this - it was only later (I think in the 80s) when it came to surface that the USSR was among other things sponsoring people in the west, including among the hippie movement, to promote the idea of "peace", "nuclear disarmament" and so on, in order to weaken their opponents. Now I'm not saying all of hippies were just that, many were probably sincere ... but since Stalin was hauled also as the promoter and the guarantor of "peace" (with children being forced to write poems and paint pictures with doves to the Eastern Father), we tend to be very careful about people clamoring for "peace". And especially in the context of Ukraine.

And also it makes people extremely wary towards, yes, Just Stop Oil and its comrades in our country as well. I believe that at least one of the prominent members of the movement, not sure if in Austria or here had dubious financing issues that were tracked back to Russia by an investigative journalist.
I'm not saying you can't be hardcore left, wish to dismantle airports, turn off the electricity (and who knows, potentially start hanging people who have glasses, so they are of the intelligentsia?), but from the experience of a country that has been oppressed and influenced subversively by Russia, this is exactly the thing they'd do to fuck us up. Just think about that before you laud it, in case you were so inclined.

(thankfully, it seems that for my country at least, the era of this "campbell soup on paintings" insanity is probably gone, it was a very, very niche thing anyway - the biggest problem now is of course "I just want peace" talks and "Ukrainians are bad, they should fuck off and go back to their country, they are stealing our jobs/women/sheep/whatever")
 
Ever since the Tsarist regime, where they were trying many things in order to make their enemies destroy themselves (it is suspected that even the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, the most famous antisemitic conspirational pamphlet is a product of the Tsarist police; it is known that Russia used to spread the idea of Russo-centric Panslavism especially into the German sphere of influence in order to incite public unrest and disagreements - several of our historians have written and spoken on this and we were one of the foremost victims of that - but mainly from people who never went to Russia at all, those that have (like Borovsky) lost their illusions very soon), it continued in the Soviet Union and it still continues now.
This is still the same country.

Why am I saying all this - it was only later (I think in the 80s) when it came to surface that the USSR was among other things sponsoring people in the west, including among the hippie movement, to promote the idea of "peace", "nuclear disarmament" and so on, in order to weaken their opponents. Now I'm not saying all of hippies were just that, many were probably sincere ... but since Stalin was hauled also as the promoter and the guarantor of "peace" (with children being forced to write poems and paint pictures with doves to the Eastern Father), we tend to be very careful about people clamoring for "peace". And especially in the context of Ukraine.

Exactly! russia is conducting countless covert hybrid operations, attacks, and long-term strategies—all aimed at weakening and eventually collapsing democratic countries from within. Hello, AfD! Bribes, blackmail—you name it. They’re absolutely exploiting mass immigration for that purpose (Syria, anyone?).

And the scary part is, they don’t even need their opponents to collapse outright. A pro-russian government in the West? That’s the real prize. They want the West to turn a blind eye to their true, vile nature while continuing to buy their oil and gas like obedient sheep.

And I suspect there are even people here on this very forum who still don’t believe that russia is relentlessly gnawing away at the very foundations of Western values and peaceful coexistence.

Yet there are still voices in the West calling for a return to “normal.” That world is gone. We are entering an age of daggers and deceitful grins.
 
Where in the hell did this thread just veer off to? Lol
Ah, just exchanging our experience with Russia. You know, it's funny, the closer the country is, the stronger the feeling. I'm almost 100 % sure Azas is from one of these countries (the big grey blob is Belarus and Ukraine, of which the latter would definitely like to prohibit Russians to enter, in fact it is trying to implement such measure very much, lol):

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Actually, fun fact, after Russian "visitors" (actually GRU agents) in our country have (inadvertently?) managed to explode some munition material and we refused to let it be and actually investigated the case, my country was added to Russia's list as the only "unfriendly country" next to the US. Then Ukraine happened.

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They’re absolutely exploiting mass immigration for that purpose (Syria, anyone?).

Yeah, immigration on Polish borders, where they (and Belarus) try to keep the flow and paint Poland as the bad guys for not letting them through, I forgot about that in the meantime, but we were discussing it a lot at the university.

And the scary part is, they don’t even need their opponents to collapse outright. A pro-russian government in the West? That’s the real prize. They want the West to turn a blind eye to their true, vile nature while continuing to buy their oil and gas like obedient sheep.

That said, mere destabilising is much easier than actually putting a puppet politician in office, methinks. At least in our country, they very often find the former to be sufficient.
 
Ah, just exchanging our experience with Russia. You know, it's funny, the closer the country is, the stronger the feeling. I'm almost 100 % sure Azas is from one of these countries (the big grey blob is Belarus and Ukraine, of which the latter would definitely like to prohibit Russians to enter, in fact it is trying to implement such measure very much, lol)
You got it right—I'm from Lithuania. And what’s happening now near Poland’s borders already happened to us. But we didn’t drag our feet (as Europe so often does) and we didn’t let the situation spiral into a massive, uncontrollable mess. Like Poland, my country built a fence and overall strenghtened the border with Belarus. Because this wasn’t about “human rights” or immigration—it was a clear act of hybrid warfare.

It was also a business for the Belarusian regime, which flew people in from the Middle East, charging them large sums with false promises of entering Europe—Germany, in particular. When your opponent plays a dirty game, you can’t sit down and play chess with them.
That said, mere destabilising is much easier than actually putting a puppet politician in office, methinks. At least in our country, they very often find the former to be sufficient.
Actually, one thing leads to another. For example: you destabilize Europe by triggering mass immigration (think Syria). Then, with the help of corrupt local politicians, you stir up public resentment toward those very immigrants. And voilà—you’ve got a powder keg ready to blow. Far-right parties are on the rise.
 
Exactly! russia is conducting countless covert hybrid operations, attacks, and long-term strategies—all aimed at weakening and eventually collapsing democratic countries from within.

Russia for sure, but US even more. And UK before that. And France. The list is long. If a country is or has been an empire, there's evil like this going on.
 
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