Coronavirus

The other day I went for a walk and a kid on a bike waited for me to pass - on the other side of the road - before riding out of her driveway. That wouldn't have happened before. Later on I encountered a bloke walking his dog. The pavement was considerably less than 2 metres wide so I went to the other side of the road (where there was no pavement) so he could pass. He said "thank you" as he did so. New social norms are slowly being established ...
 
A few days ago in the 2020 tour thread there was a bit of debate about whether or not warmer weather in summer would have an effect on the spread of the virus. Thankfully the BBC has an article about this: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200323-coronavirus-will-hot-weather-kill-covid-19

To sum it up for those who can't be bothered to read it, there is basically conflicting evidence on both sides. Some studies suggest that warmer, drier weather may degrade the virus when outside of a human body, but other studies suggest that there may not be much seasonality to this virus because human activity also affects how the virus spreads. The virus which caused the SARS pandemic in 2002-03 (the virus causing this pandemic is very similar) was eliminated before any seasonality could occur so there is limited information from which any conclusions can be drawn for this pandemic.

I'm still hoping that warmer weather will at least limit the spread and effectiveness of the virus though. The downside is that a big heatwave will put further strain on health services with lots of elderly people being hospitalized from heat-related health problems.
 
The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments. However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log10) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%). The better stability of SARS coronavirus at low temperature and low humidity environment may facilitate its transmission in community in subtropical area (such as Hong Kong) during the spring and in air-conditioned environments. It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.
Click to expand...

The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus

The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on...
www.hindawi.com www.hindawi.com
 
In the last decade, more often than not, that was the typical summer mid day in the city. I can't remember was it last summer, but it was recent, for a month it was unbearable going to sleep with windows open, absolute tropic humidity and 30(c) at midnight. 2020 has been highly unpredictable, but raw statistics taken into account, the supposed transmission vector of the virus should diminish in the summer. If we maintain a linear infection rate without outbreaks, which so far we've been lucky to observe, I'm optimistic that civilian life will restore to its usual self by then.
 
I've read a number of books on the plagues hundreds of years ago. Now I hear things that sound like what happened then: an elderly people's home in Spain abandoned and inhabitants left to die, a cruise ship infected and unable to find a harbour, and areas closed in Finland, people isolated in their homes. I honestly never thought I'd live to see something similar to what those people experienced centuries ago.
 
Lamia020281 said:
I've read a number of books on the plagues hundreds of years ago. Now I hear things that sound like what happened then: an elderly people's home in Spain abandoned and inhabitants left to die, a cruise ship infected and unable to find a harbour, and areas closed in Finland, people isolated in their homes. I honestly never thought I'd live to see something similar to what those people experienced centuries ago.
Click to expand...
I've read books about the 1918 influenza epidemic and they are shocking. There are some rather... unsavoury experiences to be found in it, such as seriously ill people putting so much effort into simply breathing that their lungs simply gave up and let them die.
 
Zare said:

The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus

The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on...
www.hindawi.com www.hindawi.com
Click to expand...
...Another study showed that it was inactivated by ultraviolet light...

...high temperature at high relative humidity has a synergistic effect on inactivation of SARS CoV viability while lower temperatures and low humidity support prolonged survival of virus on contaminated surfaces...

...a separate study has shown that during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18.18-fold higher in days with a lower air temperature than in days with a higher temperature in Hong Kong...

This is for the original SARS virus so SARS-CoV-2 will probably respond differently to all these physical factors, but hopefully it's similar enough to be degraded in summer and the spread slows down.
 
Today has been one of the nicest days out since the virus hit Colorado, and it seems it’s true that nice weather will bring people out even with stay at home orders in place. Lots of traffic out, the grocery store I work at was packed, and there were many people out and about as I was headed home.

If the summer heat doesn’t kill the virus, expect a lot of Americans to die over the summer because social distancing isn’t going to be a thing anymore.
 
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