USA Politics
- Thread starter Genghis Khan
- Start date
Well, not going to attempt to predict the election this year because I feel like it could go either way and have felt that way pretty much since the DNC. Polls haven't moved significantly and there's been pretty clear evidence that polls aren't even that useful this year to begin with. I think you can squint at all kinds of data and see credible cases for a Trump win or a Harris win. With all of that being said, I think I have the slightest edge toward Harris for a few reasons (from weakest to strongest):
1: Vibes. Ultimately vibes don't win elections but I do think enthusiasm still matters especially in a marginal race. There are a lot of people excited to vote for Harris and I think she is able to bring the Democratic coalition together more effectively certainly than Clinton but possibly 2020 Biden as well. I've frequently said that it doesn't matter how excited Trump voters are this time around since they each only get to vote once no matter how excited they are, and the same applies here, but I just think there are more gettable voters out there for her compared to someone who is running for the third time and has never been able to crack 50% in the popular vote or in most of these swing states (if any, I'd have to double check). It's hard for me to believe that Trump voters are being undercounted again and somehow Trump is poised to win in majority landslides. He can still win with a plurality of course, but I think it's more uphill than it was in 16.
2: The Selzer poll, a similarly credible poll showing a closer than expected race in Kansas, and more recently John Ralston's prediction of a slight Harris victory in Nevada. First of all, even if the Iowa poll is wrong, it shows that Harris is able to hold on to the old white vote enough to hold the blue wall. Secondly, if the Iowa poll is accurate, this is going to be an Obama level landslide. If it's off by up to 10 points or all the undecideds break for Trump (the latter I can certainly see happening), you're looking at anything from still an Obama level landslide (D+2 to ~R+4) or Harris doing slightly better than Biden in 2020 which still translates to Harris carrying the blue wall. I have a really hard time seeing Harris winning Iowa, but I do think this poll is a clear warning sign that something is happening that the polls aren't capturing. Also, given Selzer's track record, the poll can only be off by so much.
3: The fact that Trump has run a horrible campaign and has been mired in some really rough scandals over the last week is going to give an edge to Harris the same way the Comey letter at the last minute in 2016 gave the edge to Trump. It's important to remember that Trump's campaign was able to let Clinton hang herself in that last week while Trump stayed out of the spotlight. The opposite has happened in the last couple weeks of this election. If this is a marginal race, I think that will give Harris a slight edge. Similarly, Harris' get out the vote operation is going to severely cut into any potential election day advantage Trump may have.
4: The gender gap in early vote. IMO if turnout among women is high it's a bit of a signal that abortion is going to drive the election and offset Trump's advantage on the economy. If there is a groundswell of young male voters on election day tomorrow, I think that will be a pretty bad sign for Harris, but the fact that there hasn't been any indications of these low propensity male voters coming out in droves despite Trump trying to court these voters and encourage early voting makes me increasingly skeptical there is a huge cohort waiting to vote on election day. On the other hand, it seems like Harris is getting the voters she needs early and they seem to be anticipating a pretty big election day contingency.
We'll see what happens.
1: Vibes. Ultimately vibes don't win elections but I do think enthusiasm still matters especially in a marginal race. There are a lot of people excited to vote for Harris and I think she is able to bring the Democratic coalition together more effectively certainly than Clinton but possibly 2020 Biden as well. I've frequently said that it doesn't matter how excited Trump voters are this time around since they each only get to vote once no matter how excited they are, and the same applies here, but I just think there are more gettable voters out there for her compared to someone who is running for the third time and has never been able to crack 50% in the popular vote or in most of these swing states (if any, I'd have to double check). It's hard for me to believe that Trump voters are being undercounted again and somehow Trump is poised to win in majority landslides. He can still win with a plurality of course, but I think it's more uphill than it was in 16.
2: The Selzer poll, a similarly credible poll showing a closer than expected race in Kansas, and more recently John Ralston's prediction of a slight Harris victory in Nevada. First of all, even if the Iowa poll is wrong, it shows that Harris is able to hold on to the old white vote enough to hold the blue wall. Secondly, if the Iowa poll is accurate, this is going to be an Obama level landslide. If it's off by up to 10 points or all the undecideds break for Trump (the latter I can certainly see happening), you're looking at anything from still an Obama level landslide (D+2 to ~R+4) or Harris doing slightly better than Biden in 2020 which still translates to Harris carrying the blue wall. I have a really hard time seeing Harris winning Iowa, but I do think this poll is a clear warning sign that something is happening that the polls aren't capturing. Also, given Selzer's track record, the poll can only be off by so much.
3: The fact that Trump has run a horrible campaign and has been mired in some really rough scandals over the last week is going to give an edge to Harris the same way the Comey letter at the last minute in 2016 gave the edge to Trump. It's important to remember that Trump's campaign was able to let Clinton hang herself in that last week while Trump stayed out of the spotlight. The opposite has happened in the last couple weeks of this election. If this is a marginal race, I think that will give Harris a slight edge. Similarly, Harris' get out the vote operation is going to severely cut into any potential election day advantage Trump may have.
4: The gender gap in early vote. IMO if turnout among women is high it's a bit of a signal that abortion is going to drive the election and offset Trump's advantage on the economy. If there is a groundswell of young male voters on election day tomorrow, I think that will be a pretty bad sign for Harris, but the fact that there hasn't been any indications of these low propensity male voters coming out in droves despite Trump trying to court these voters and encourage early voting makes me increasingly skeptical there is a huge cohort waiting to vote on election day. On the other hand, it seems like Harris is getting the voters she needs early and they seem to be anticipating a pretty big election day contingency.
We'll see what happens.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
I think trying to predict anything is next to impossible.
The only thing that seems like a reasonable bet is the Republicans will get to 51 in the Senate (West Virginia is a sure thing and Montana is really likely). But even if they pick up another seat or two, there are enough moderates and the filibuster to lock down anything too radical
The House is a toss up and whoever gets it will end up with small margins (under 10 seats for sure, most likely less) ... so at best a narrow working majority.
The White House is really a toss up, I just hope it does not come down to 1 state, there is a decent change I think one or the other will run most of the battle ground states. The only positive I could see for Trump is that the last 2 elections his support was undercounted in the polls. The question is if that has been rectified or not. We will find out soon enough (thank God)
Given I do not care for Harris (mainly on economic and regulatory policy) or Trump (personality and isolationism) ... having an essentially split Congress is the best thing possible IMO
The only thing that seems like a reasonable bet is the Republicans will get to 51 in the Senate (West Virginia is a sure thing and Montana is really likely). But even if they pick up another seat or two, there are enough moderates and the filibuster to lock down anything too radical
The House is a toss up and whoever gets it will end up with small margins (under 10 seats for sure, most likely less) ... so at best a narrow working majority.
The White House is really a toss up, I just hope it does not come down to 1 state, there is a decent change I think one or the other will run most of the battle ground states. The only positive I could see for Trump is that the last 2 elections his support was undercounted in the polls. The question is if that has been rectified or not. We will find out soon enough (thank God)
Given I do not care for Harris (mainly on economic and regulatory policy) or Trump (personality and isolationism) ... having an essentially split Congress is the best thing possible IMO
I think congress will go whichever way the presidency goes. If polls are underestimating Trump enough for him to sweep the swing states I think a lot of those tossup house seats will go red as well. It also seems like Democrats are really struggling to turn out in deep blue states where there are a lot of competitive house seats. Senate goes without saying in this situation. On the other hand, if Harris is being underestimated in any way particularly in rural areas (see again Iowa and Kansas) I think that bodes pretty well for the Montana and Nebraska senate races (with possible surprises in Texas). Like Republicans with the Senate, the House goes without saying in this scenario.
This kinda comes with the assumption that the presidential race isn't actually going to be close. If there actually is a clear split between rust belt and sun belt states, then yes I think split congress will come with whoever wins (Trump + dem house or Harris + GOP senate). I just have a hard time seeing that kind of split in any direction.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
Well, West Virginia is the one 100% will change hands seat. so that gets us to 50-50 ... I think all polling shows Montana with a big enough lead that it most likely becomes 51-49. I tend to think that is the likely split. Allred has run a good race and is a much better candidate in Texas than Beto ever was, but Cruz has hammered him pretty well and tied him fairly well to Harris ... Could Allred win, sure .. but it would be a big surprise. I will be happy the ads are gone. I generally like flipping on the local news for an hour in the morning (weather, traffic, occasionally stories about something happening in the area that I have an interest in) ... but man it has been painful the last few months with the constant ads
Edit: i do agree the House will probably go with however wins the Presidency, but I still think the margins will be under 10 seats
It's tricky, Allred is a better candidate than Beto but he's also running in a less favorable national environment. And yet he is still polling surprisingly close to Cruz. If the abortion issue is salient enough in states that have bans (which TX is one), I think that combined with Cancun-gate could be enough for Allred to narrowly win.
Tester's polling is looking rough but it always does for him, there was a recent poll that had them tied though and Sheehy has had a couple scandals recently. I wouldn't money on Tester but I also am not quite ready to write him off. I think he has done a good job keeping the race local and keeping the Democratic party at arm's length. I could see this being a similar situation to Susan Collins in Maine in 2020.
At the end of the day I just think that polls underestimating Harris even a little will have downballot effects. But the same goes for Trump, if he really runs the table in the swing states I expect Republicans to end up with closer to a 55 seat majority. I just really doubt the amount of ticket splitting that some of these polls suggest.
Tester's polling is looking rough but it always does for him, there was a recent poll that had them tied though and Sheehy has had a couple scandals recently. I wouldn't money on Tester but I also am not quite ready to write him off. I think he has done a good job keeping the race local and keeping the Democratic party at arm's length. I could see this being a similar situation to Susan Collins in Maine in 2020.
At the end of the day I just think that polls underestimating Harris even a little will have downballot effects. But the same goes for Trump, if he really runs the table in the swing states I expect Republicans to end up with closer to a 55 seat majority. I just really doubt the amount of ticket splitting that some of these polls suggest.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
I really cannot argue with you. I think the actual answer though is I would not be surprised by anything. Between Trump being. .. well Trump. Biden completely flaming out so late and Harris, despite being VP being somewhat of an unknown (compared to most major party nominee at this stage and honestly she has not been overly specific) it is just a weird election and I think literally any outcome is possible