USA Politics

It’s weird to say that a poll that shows both Trump ahead and an increase in his support is good for Harris, but two things stick out:

1: They conducted this survey among the same respondents as earlier surveys, so there is a demonstrable preference to Harris already among people who weren’t previously supporting Biden.

2: Harris is closing the gap on Trump during what should be his best polls of the election with a convention and assassination bounce. If these are the best numbers Trump can put up, I will be curious to see the same poll after the convention in August
 
Spaldy said:
Only 10k views in an hour? I'd have expected it to be in the 6 digit area by now.
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At least half of America hadn’t woken up yet when you posted that. It’s well into 200k+ now.

She’s got a powerful message now. I like the forward looking theme and the message of freedom. I also like that she’s hitting Trump on his criminal record. She’s speaking to what was at least my understanding of what the “double hater” voters want. Also really bad for Trump that she is pivoting to a policy based campaign, as Trump’s policies and project 2025 have the potential to really hurt him.
 
I am actually amazed at how unprepared the Trump campaign was for this. It feels like they were totally caught sitting on their hands when this outcome is really not that surprising. It blows my mind that there wasn't a "what to do when Biden drops out" strategy.

Similarly I'm seeing a lot of reports about people in the GOP second guessing the Vance pick. Not sure if there's anything to it, but it's starting to feel like Vance's pick is the first in a series of unforced errors from what has been a really well run campaign up until now. Are the wheels falling off? And this is coming from someone who actually thought the Vance pick wasn't a bad choice at first. Not a bad choice if you're looking at a landslide victory, which Trump clearly no longer isn't.
 
Mosh said:
I am actually amazed at how unprepared the Trump campaign was for this. It feels like they were totally caught sitting on their hands when this outcome is really not that surprising. It blows my mind that there wasn't a "what to do when Biden drops out" strategy.

Similarly I'm seeing a lot of reports about people in the GOP second guessing the Vance pick. Not sure if there's anything to it, but it's starting to feel like Vance's pick is the first in a series of unforced errors from what has been a really well run campaign up until now. Are the wheels falling off? And this is coming from someone who actually thought the Vance pick wasn't a bad choice at first. Not a bad choice if you're looking at a landslide victory, which Trump clearly no longer isn't.
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I think they (and I also subscribed to this train of thought in the last week) thought Biden was going to stubbornly dig in his heels and stick it out until November. Had that happened, Trump would have cruised to victory. Related to that, JD Vance brings nothing to the ticket. He doesn't appeal to any demographics that Trump needed help in and is from a state that's become red anyways. The VP pick was an afterthought because why pull from anything when you've got in the bag. Even had it been a competitive race with Biden, I think the Vance pick was nonsensical from the word 'go.'

I'm starting to think that the decision of Biden stepping down from the ticket was decided weeks ago, but the Democratic Party as a whole waited until after the RNC to announce it to completely blunt any sort of momentum from it. It worked. (Partly because Trump's pivot was nonexistent.)

Right now, Democrats are crushing it with donations and with voter registration. We're still 3-4 weeks out from the convention. They're looking like a well-oiled machine at the moment.
 
Mosh said:
I am actually amazed at how unprepared the Trump campaign was for this. It feels like they were totally caught sitting on their hands when this outcome is really not that surprising. It blows my mind that there wasn't a "what to do when Biden drops out" strategy.

Similarly I'm seeing a lot of reports about people in the GOP second guessing the Vance pick. Not sure if there's anything to it, but it's starting to feel like Vance's pick is the first in a series of unforced errors from what has been a really well run campaign up until now. Are the wheels falling off? And this is coming from someone who actually thought the Vance pick wasn't a bad choice at first. Not a bad choice if you're looking at a landslide victory, which Trump clearly no longer isn't.
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They have apparently identified a couple of issues they are going to raise in the coming weeks/months. One is that Harris was in favor of letting BLM protestors and rioters out on bail.
 
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Yax said:
They have apparently identified a couple of issues they are going to raise in the comming weeks/months. One is that Harris was in favor of letting BLM protestors and rioters out on bail.
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Fighting the last war.
 
Yax said:
They have apparently identified a couple of issues they are going to raise in the coming weeks/months. One is that Harris was in favor of letting BLM protestors and rioters out on bail.
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They're welcome to try that attack line, but you're going to get Uno reverse carded with Trump's proposed January 6th pardons. Going to be another "stepping on a rake" moment.
 
Flaming Blimp Crash said:
They're welcome to try that attack line, but you're going to get Uno reverse carded with Trump's proposed January 6th pardons. Going to be another "stepping on a rake" moment.
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That can be said of a lot of their playbook material tbh. Now Trump is the oldest nominee ever, and the spotlight is going to be on his, very obvious age related issues. Last night or so, the guy said that the RNC convention was two weeks ago. A couple of weeks ago, he named a potential cabinet member in an interview, and two weeks later was all like "what idiot has brought his name into the conversation?". And then there's his regular stumbling on words at his rallies, on top of his cascade of word salads about sharks. The attention on Biden and his issues is going to bite him in the ass.
 
The whole situation is doubly hilarious considering that Harris is the current VP. Like, you'd think they would've had some kind of contingency plan in the case that Biden dies and Harris takes over. It's not like we're talking about some random candidate, we're talking about the second in line.

It's immensely satisfying seeing the GOP desperately trying their regular tactics, but none of them sticking. For once, it feels like we're finally going to see some consequences. A bit like the punishing of the Tories in the UK recently.
 
I guess Trump's trying to pull out from the agreed September debate, citing that Obama didn't endorse Harris yet (or at least that's part of the reasoning.)

So, the Obamas revealed this morning their endorsement of her. Apparently it was done earlier in the week, but they didn't publicly announce it until now.

Another 'step on a rake' moment for the Trump campaign.
 
Apparently Manchin is gathering donors ahead of a Convention challenge. He is going to re-register as a dem. Always the opportunist.
 
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Vaenyr said:
That's gonna fail spectacularly. Let him try, at least it's going to be funny.
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I don’t think he expects it to go anywhere. Speculatively, might just want to help Donnie a bit by flaming infighting. Manchin is about as right-wing as a Dem can get and is a bit of a Maverick.
 
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