USA Politics

Jer said:
I would argue that the progressive left also attacks the center, even the significantly left-of-center, on a regular basis in a way that the reactionary right doesn’t do as much to their moderates. (Yes, Trump has created appalling litmus tests for people who want to run for office as a Republican, but aside from office holders who aren’t falling in line, the right generally doesn’t attack the center in the U.S.)
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I don't think that's really true. Everyone on the political spectrum lashes out at the out-groups, which us arguably by design. It depends on how you define "the center" because the last few years have shown quite a bit of animosity from the right wing towards anyone who isn't a conservative. Of course they'll mostly attack the boogeymen of "marxist, communist, radical left" but they also attack liberals any chance that they get. Liberals range from center left to center right.

Jer said:
Perhaps this is the key difference re: the center, that progressive voters attack centrist voters, while reactionary politicians generally just attack centrist politicians.
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In a sense, because they like to demonize the other side (the left being groomers and pedophiles, that sort of thing).

Jer said:
This contributes to the prog-left’s bad reputation for condescension and posturing, since they go out of their way to alienate people who would otherwise be their allies on many issues, at least to a certain point.
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But the same exact thing applies to the center/center-left who keep attacking the left. It's become normalized to attack the "prog-left" to a point where the attacks don't even register.
 
Vaenyr said:
But the same exact thing applies to the center/center-left who keep attacking the left. It's become normalized to attack the "prog-left" to a point where the attacks don't even register.
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But the center and center-left take more issue with the prog-left’s methods than with their policies, for the most part. Yes, there are some hard breaks on policy (defunding the police, decriminalizing petty theft, excessive pandering to illegal immigrants and trans activists, etc.), but these are often on matters of degree. The way that the prog-left carries themselves in their engagements with the center and center-left is what garners them a bad reputation, almost always deservedly.

And yes, if you believe you’re 100% unassailably correct on every topic, it becomes very easy to condescendingly dismiss people who disagree with you. But no one is 100% correct across the board, because no one can be fully informed and up to date on every topic all the time, and that’s why ongoing discussion that includes open-mindedness and actual listening is so important.
 
Of course no one is 100% correct all of the time. That's why I'm explicitly saying that the prog left can be criticized for many things, but a good chunk of the criticism is disingenuous and applies just as much to the entire political spectrum, yet we're supposed to pretend it's only (or more) justified against the prog left, which is a perfect example of political hypocrisy.
 
Returning to the topic at hand:

I'm glad to see the Democrats being united behind Kamala. They have the chance to build momentum we haven't seen since Obama.
 
It's simple : for me, those who vote for Trump, are the same morons that vote for Marine Le Pen or Eric Zemmour here in France. They are selfish, egocentric, navel gazers and do not care about the disastrous consequences that their bad vote will have on the lives of millions of other people.
 
TheMercenary said:
It's simple : for me, those who vote for Trump, are the same morons that vote for Marine Le Pen or Eric Zemmour here in France. They are selfish, egocentric, navel gazers and do not care about the disastrous consequences that their bad vote will have on the lives of millions of other people.
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Careful, lest they call you part of the judgmental and sanctimonious prog-left :P
 
Vaenyr said:
Returning to the topic at hand:

I'm glad to see the Democrats being united behind Kamala. They have the chance to build momentum we haven't seen since Obama.
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Obama had this natural charisma to him, I don't think Kamala has that herself, but God the buzz feels very similar.

Anecdotal and yes I live in a strong Democratic state, but folks are straight up energized here over this. Friends up in Wisconsin seem energized as well. It's still very much a neck and neck race right now, but Trump (and Biden for that matter) I feel was at his ceiling, Kamala can only go up in terms of support. I would not be surprised (and I could very well be wrong) if Kamala's electoral vote count is very similar to Obama's in 2012.
 
Flaming Blimp Crash said:
Obama had this natural charisma to him, I don't think Kamala has that herself, but God the buzz feels very similar.

Anecdotal and yes I live in a strong Democratic state, but folks are straight up energized here over this. Friends up in Wisconsin seem energized as well. It's still very much a neck and neck race right now, but Trump (and Biden for that matter) I feel was at his ceiling, Kamala can only go up in terms of support. I would not be surprised (and I could very well be wrong) if Kamala's electoral vote count is very similar to Obama's in 2012.
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Similar impression here. On one hand I recognize that I am not getting an on the ground reaction in any of the states that matter, but I do think you can extrapolate excitement even in blue states to other areas. The thing is it's not just about getting an undecided to vote for Harris, it's about getting base voters excited and bringing out friends/family/coworkers/congregation members out to vote. It's how Obama did so well and how Biden was able to win Georgia in 2020. Democrats typically need that GOTV energy to get over the line in these swing states. If the base is as activated as it feels right now, I definitely think it changes the electoral landscape significantly.

To get to Obama 2012 numbers Florida would have to be in play, which I wouldn't necessarily rule out, but she would need to close the gap in all other swing states first. I definitely think the Sun Belt states are still in play, which gets you closer to a 2020 map with the possible addition of North Carolina where I absolutely think the Dems should revisit now that they can be on offense again. If she can fix some of the Democrat struggles with hispanic and black voters there is also the possibility that she won't even need the rust belt. I don't really see it personally but I definitely see multiple paths to victory where Biden only had one.
 
For sure. I definitely think Kelly has the potential to lock down AZ which she needs at a very baseline as a Rust Belt insurance policy. She can lose Michigan or Wisconsin and make up for it with AZ. She can't spare PA, but I don't think either candidate wins this without PA anyway.
 
Also worth looking at Senate polling where Biden was running well behind the Senate candidates:

PA - Casey +10
AZ - Gallego +5
NV - Rosen +12
WI - Baldwin +8

Absolutely possible for Harris to catch up to these numbers.
 
Mosh said:
Also worth looking at Senate polling where Biden was running well behind the Senate candidates:

PA - Casey +10
AZ - Gallego +5
NV - Rosen +12
WI - Baldwin +8

Absolutely possible for Harris to catch up to these numbers.
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I listened in on her speech in Milwaukee yesterday, and I think she did a great job in getting the message out of what she would do with her term. I feel a lot of Biden's rhetoric that perhaps was stunting him along with the age aspect was he focused too much on "Look at the other guy!" and "Look what I've done!" People want to know where the country is going to go under your stewardship. I think if she stays on message with that she'll run up to those numbers easily.

I'm serious when I say there's a real energy/vibe going on here that feels akin to when Obama was running. I never would have guessed it'd be under a Kamala Harris run. It's not a foregone conclusion she will win, but if this energy/excitement keeps up I think it's going to be an early night on Tuesday, November 5th.
 
The voting block is definitely there. The few polls that have come out since Biden dropped out are promising especially considering she hasn't even really began campaigning and we still have a VP pick and convention to juice enthusiasm. If there's a debate and she nails Trump, that's going to be huge.

I am anxious to see polls in the next week or two as those may paint a clearer picture. In particular I would like to see polling in Georgia. The Kamala Harris theory seems to be that she will do better among people of color and young voters. If she can outperform Biden's Georgia 2020 numbers and bring out Atlanta voters, she will be working with a much more flexible map than Biden's single path to 270 (MI+WI+PA+NE3, Trump wins all other swing states).
 
Polls have still been weird and are all over the place. Believe it was CNN who just released some polls that showed Harris making big gains among racial minorities, 18-34 voters overall and being +6 over Trump with women from the start, but she's still down overall and barely gained over Biden. I know the electorate isn't completely dominated by white men anymore, so it's a case of the sum being off from the arithmetic.
 
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