USA Politics
- Thread starter Genghis Khan
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The_7th_one
Ancient Mariner
Bomber Harris is she now
Just taking a screenshot as this is the 2nd time I've managed to get a 666th comment on here.
#forumlegend
EDIT: Never mind. I just realised that they're page numbers not comment numbers. Carry on.
I hope you feel bad, I really do.
Vaenyr
Ancient Mariner
Trump's recent comments on one of his rallies, where he urged Christians to vote this time, so that they can "fix it" and they won't have to vote again are making quite the splash online. There are of course multiple interpretations, like the voters turning up now so that Trump and his admin can "fix" the "corruption" of voting by mail. On the other hand, considering Project 2025, many are interpreting it as Trump sayin the quiet part out loud and preparing for some illegal shenanigans. It seems like he's constantly putting his foot in his mouth and I'm all for it.
I will be curious to see how this sort of stuff lands with the general public now that the focus isn’t on Biden’s age. Trump says crazy stuff at all his rallies but none of it was registering because it was all about Biden. It seems like Trump comments are getting more coverage already. I was even surprised at how much attention some of JD Vance’s comments were getting this week and the backlash from that. The theory of the Biden case has been that the more attention people pay to Trump, the less likely Trump is to win. We will see how that plays out, as this is quickly turning into a Trump referendum.
Then there’s this:
www.foxnews.com
Lost in the top line of Harris improving on Biden’s numbers is the fact that these are really good numbers for Trump. It’s certainly possible, but I have a hard time seeing Trump breaking 50% in any of the rust belt states. He’s clearly getting a polling bounce. I would expect his numbers to settle around 46-47 and would not be surprised if Kamala is consistently leading in at least one if not all three by the convention.
Then there’s this:
Fox News Poll: Close races in battleground states show voters locked in | Fox News
The economy is far and away the top issue this election
www.foxnews.com
Lost in the top line of Harris improving on Biden’s numbers is the fact that these are really good numbers for Trump. It’s certainly possible, but I have a hard time seeing Trump breaking 50% in any of the rust belt states. He’s clearly getting a polling bounce. I would expect his numbers to settle around 46-47 and would not be surprised if Kamala is consistently leading in at least one if not all three by the convention.
Vaenyr
Ancient Mariner
Harris is doing the smart thing of completely ignoring that she's a female candidate and a woman of colour. She's not doing what Hillary did, she's focusing on policy and on the "prosecutor vs felon" angle. Trump's team, from what we've seen, seamed to have went all in on attacking Biden. Now they have to compete with someone much younger, who would much rather discuss policies and legislation, which is not a strong suit of Trump and the GOP.
Also, it's fun seeing Kamala's social media team capitalizing on golden opportunities like the attack ad where they took Trump's quote and just put an "I approve this message" at the end. Or a new tweet, where Harris taunts Trump along the lines of "Trump is afraid of debating me" lol
Also, it's fun seeing Kamala's social media team capitalizing on golden opportunities like the attack ad where they took Trump's quote and just put an "I approve this message" at the end. Or a new tweet, where Harris taunts Trump along the lines of "Trump is afraid of debating me" lol
Flaming Blimp Crash
Ancient Mariner
Hillary's problem is the same as Trump's problem when he thought he was going to end up going against Biden this year.
It's their hubris. They both thought they had it in the bag.
I had been saying while Biden was still in that this was looking like a reversal of 2016. Trump was ahead in the polls and a favorite to win, but also a polling error away from a Biden win. I think it would have been a strategic error for Trump to campaign in states like NM, similar to the unforced error of Hillary campaigning in Texas. Now we are kinda back to square one and so far I’m not seeing the Trump people quickly adapting to a situation where they need to be competitive in 7 states.
Flaming Blimp Crash
Ancient Mariner
It's just teeing up a grand slam for the Harris campaign (and they've been nailing the messaging in what's still their beginnings thus far) -- either Trump's ties to Project 2025 are legit and it is indeed real, or he's rambling and clearly too old and mentally unfit for the office.
If there was a competent VP pick for Trump they'd be the ones out there campaigning right now... oh, wait, what's that? He is out there? But he's beefing with... Jennifer Aniston!?!? RACHEL!?!?
The celebrity excitement around Kamala gives me a bit of a bad Hillary vibe, although the JD backlash is really bad for him. I just hope Harris keeps the celebrities at a reasonable arm’s length and keeps this about working class voters.
Flaming Blimp Crash
Ancient Mariner
I don't think celebrity endorsement is a bad thing here. Beyonce enthusiastically letting the campaign use her song as its theme is a major endorsement.
I think the campaign so far has done a good job at pointing out the flaws of the Trump campaign as well as spreading a message about focusing on the working class so far. Debate time/convention time will be when that really starts to get hammered in. Hillary got swept up in her own hype ('I'm With Her' anyone?) and the pompousness with which she campaigned didn't help (avoiding the rust belt entirely). It's only been a week, but Kamala's group has seen well-grounded thus far.
Vaenyr
Ancient Mariner
Saw a comment the other day that I liked. It said that Kamala is going for 'I'm With You' instead of 'I'm With Her' and this seems to be working out well at the moment.
Flaming Blimp Crash
Ancient Mariner
Funny comment I've read about Trump is "You know, for a guy who supposedly tells it like it is, he sure does have his surrogates running cover screaming 'No! This is what he really meant!' a lot."
With the Veepstakes heating up and Kamala likely to announce (at earliest) at the end of the week, I am curious who Maidenfans like for VP. Personally I don’t think she can go wrong with any candidate, it’s the strongest field for VP that we’ve seen in a long time. I do think there are only two serious contenders though:
Mark Kelly - Arizona senator, former astronaut, and husband of former rep Gabby Giffords who survived a shooting. He has been my top choice and could really help Kamala with any weaknesses on the border as well as help deliver Arizona, which isn’t a must win (nor would it necessarily get her to 270), but I think is more winnable and more important than it is getting credit for. I think he has pretty broad appeal and really bolsters the ticket overall. The risk is that Democrats won't have an incumbency advantage in 2026 when his seat is up in AZ, but AZ has a strong bench and I think they could field a candidate who would fare just as well as Mark Kelly in an off year election where Democrats are the incumbent party.
Josh Shapiro - Governor of Pennsylvania. It seems like the pundit momentum is with Shapiro, not that it really means anything but it makes sense. Being a popular governor of PA and having won there in a landslide, the Shapiro theory seems to be that putting Shapiro on the ticket guarantees a win in PA. It's an attractive idea since Harris basically can't win without it, but I'm not sure I'm convinced.
Dark horses include:
Pete Buttigieg - Great on TV, could use a higher profile national gig. Most people seem to think being gay is a liability for him and maybe it is maybe it isn't. I'm not sure if it's really worth the risk regardless because I don't think he necessarily brings any electoral advantages and he could run for Governor or Senate in Michigan later if he wants to. He can also be a strong surrogate for the Harris campaign without being on the ticket.
Tim Walz - Governor of Minnesota. Probably the true definition of a dark horse since he has been raising his profile considerably through media appearances. I like him, but like Pete I'm not sure if he really brings anything to the table that he can't contribute as just a TV surrogate.
Andy Beshear - Governor of Kentucky. I like Beshear the most out of the dark horses and hope he keeps a high profile in the Harris campaign overall. I think he's interesting demographically as a young guy who is on his second term as governor of a red state. I think he does a lot for Harris' credibility among working class white voters that maybe you don't get as much with Mayor Pete and Tim Walz. Idk, hearing a southerner promote the values of the Democratic party is not something to take lightly imo. Also, I believe it would be the first time we've had a major candidate from the south in a long time. Maybe since Bush Jr.?
Overall, the Veepstakes coverage is fun so far but I think it really is going to come down to Kelly or Shapiro. I think Kelly provides a more holistic candidate with a clear electoral advantage as well as someone who would actually be a really effective VP. I also won't be surprised if Harris goes all in on Shapiro with the assumption that he will deliver PA and possibly the other Rust Belt states. I think I'm skeptical because I feel Mark Kelly would strongly appeal to these voters PLUS the people in the sunbelt states and just has a classic all-American thing about him. And sure, maybe Shapiro guarantees PA, but Kamala is going to need more than just PA and I think any of these VP candidates will help her build a coalition that can win several of the states she needs. She could still lose with Shapiro on the ticket, but if she loses with somebody else I doubt we're going to be saying that she needed Shapiro to deliver PA. In fact I think PA is her easiest flip right now, even without Shapiro on the ticket.
Regardless, I'm thinking this group plus Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer is going to be your 2028 primary field if Harris loses. Very strong bench.
Mark Kelly - Arizona senator, former astronaut, and husband of former rep Gabby Giffords who survived a shooting. He has been my top choice and could really help Kamala with any weaknesses on the border as well as help deliver Arizona, which isn’t a must win (nor would it necessarily get her to 270), but I think is more winnable and more important than it is getting credit for. I think he has pretty broad appeal and really bolsters the ticket overall. The risk is that Democrats won't have an incumbency advantage in 2026 when his seat is up in AZ, but AZ has a strong bench and I think they could field a candidate who would fare just as well as Mark Kelly in an off year election where Democrats are the incumbent party.
Josh Shapiro - Governor of Pennsylvania. It seems like the pundit momentum is with Shapiro, not that it really means anything but it makes sense. Being a popular governor of PA and having won there in a landslide, the Shapiro theory seems to be that putting Shapiro on the ticket guarantees a win in PA. It's an attractive idea since Harris basically can't win without it, but I'm not sure I'm convinced.
Dark horses include:
Pete Buttigieg - Great on TV, could use a higher profile national gig. Most people seem to think being gay is a liability for him and maybe it is maybe it isn't. I'm not sure if it's really worth the risk regardless because I don't think he necessarily brings any electoral advantages and he could run for Governor or Senate in Michigan later if he wants to. He can also be a strong surrogate for the Harris campaign without being on the ticket.
Tim Walz - Governor of Minnesota. Probably the true definition of a dark horse since he has been raising his profile considerably through media appearances. I like him, but like Pete I'm not sure if he really brings anything to the table that he can't contribute as just a TV surrogate.
Andy Beshear - Governor of Kentucky. I like Beshear the most out of the dark horses and hope he keeps a high profile in the Harris campaign overall. I think he's interesting demographically as a young guy who is on his second term as governor of a red state. I think he does a lot for Harris' credibility among working class white voters that maybe you don't get as much with Mayor Pete and Tim Walz. Idk, hearing a southerner promote the values of the Democratic party is not something to take lightly imo. Also, I believe it would be the first time we've had a major candidate from the south in a long time. Maybe since Bush Jr.?
Overall, the Veepstakes coverage is fun so far but I think it really is going to come down to Kelly or Shapiro. I think Kelly provides a more holistic candidate with a clear electoral advantage as well as someone who would actually be a really effective VP. I also won't be surprised if Harris goes all in on Shapiro with the assumption that he will deliver PA and possibly the other Rust Belt states. I think I'm skeptical because I feel Mark Kelly would strongly appeal to these voters PLUS the people in the sunbelt states and just has a classic all-American thing about him. And sure, maybe Shapiro guarantees PA, but Kamala is going to need more than just PA and I think any of these VP candidates will help her build a coalition that can win several of the states she needs. She could still lose with Shapiro on the ticket, but if she loses with somebody else I doubt we're going to be saying that she needed Shapiro to deliver PA. In fact I think PA is her easiest flip right now, even without Shapiro on the ticket.
Regardless, I'm thinking this group plus Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer is going to be your 2028 primary field if Harris loses. Very strong bench.
Flaming Blimp Crash
Ancient Mariner
I'll take Mark Kelly. Astronaut versus weird guy plagued by accusations that he had sex with furniture. Like, I couldn't write a better mad lib if I tried. And speaking of the furniture guy - conservative media is now running with it saying "I can't believe the Democrats are saying this!" Yes, please keep amplifying the phrase 'JD Vance has sex with couches.' 
Diesel 11
As you scream into the web of silence...
If we even have an election in 2028 in that scenario, lol.
