USA Politics
- Thread starter Genghis Khan
- Start date
Jer
'Til Tomorrow
I like both Kelly and Shapiro. Kelly may be the smarter pick, but I could see them going for Shapiro because of the perception that he guarantees PA, which is a hard requirement for the Dems winning the election.
Buttigieg is great, but put me in the bucket of people who unfortunately believes that having a woman of color with a gay VP means they get branded the woke far-left ticket and lose gettable voters as a result. I also can’t help but recall the 2016 Iowa caucuses, where a Democratic caucusgoer was enthusiastic about Pete until she found out he was gay and married, and then the expression on her face changed and she literally ran back to withdraw her support. Yes, this is fucked up, and yes, this is 2024 and not 2016, but the stakes in this election are too high to get cute about breaking barriers here. Sorry, Pete.
As a Minnesotan, let me say that Tim Walz is boring as fuck. He’s a paper-thin party shill who will say whatever’s put on his talking points memo. Yes, he’s pushed a lot of progressive legislation through here, some of it quite popular, but I don’t see that he brings much to the ticket other than “old but not decrepit” boring white man vibes with a bit of folksiness. Does that buy you anything meaningful in the rust belt? I kind of doubt it. Is MN actually in play in this election? No way, not with Biden out. So what’s the advantage?
Not sure I see the point of plucking Beshear out of Kentucky to be a VP candidate — he would appear to be more useful staying put, and possibly being a presidential candidate in the future.
tl;dr — Should be Kelly, but will probably be Shapiro.
Buttigieg is great, but put me in the bucket of people who unfortunately believes that having a woman of color with a gay VP means they get branded the woke far-left ticket and lose gettable voters as a result. I also can’t help but recall the 2016 Iowa caucuses, where a Democratic caucusgoer was enthusiastic about Pete until she found out he was gay and married, and then the expression on her face changed and she literally ran back to withdraw her support. Yes, this is fucked up, and yes, this is 2024 and not 2016, but the stakes in this election are too high to get cute about breaking barriers here. Sorry, Pete.
As a Minnesotan, let me say that Tim Walz is boring as fuck. He’s a paper-thin party shill who will say whatever’s put on his talking points memo. Yes, he’s pushed a lot of progressive legislation through here, some of it quite popular, but I don’t see that he brings much to the ticket other than “old but not decrepit” boring white man vibes with a bit of folksiness. Does that buy you anything meaningful in the rust belt? I kind of doubt it. Is MN actually in play in this election? No way, not with Biden out. So what’s the advantage?
Not sure I see the point of plucking Beshear out of Kentucky to be a VP candidate — he would appear to be more useful staying put, and possibly being a presidential candidate in the future.
tl;dr — Should be Kelly, but will probably be Shapiro.
To be fair to the boring white guys, it is a really good slate of candidates. Even if you removed the identity piece, I’m not sure there are many other candidates not being talked about who are as strong as a Kelly or Shapiro or Buttigieg. The obvious person being slept on is Gretchen Whitmer, although it sounds like she doesn’t want it. I also really like CO governor Jared Polis (who is also term limited I believe to 2026) but then we’re into a Buttigieg problem again.
I really like Buttigieg but I am not convinced that the Harris/Buttigieg ticket brings more to the table than Harris/Kelly or Harris/Shapiro. I hope he’ll continue going on Fox News but he doesn’t need to be a VP to do that. I also think locking him into 4-8 years of being VP isn’t necessarily the best use of a very talented young politician who could run for high profile offices in a swing state.
I really like Buttigieg but I am not convinced that the Harris/Buttigieg ticket brings more to the table than Harris/Kelly or Harris/Shapiro. I hope he’ll continue going on Fox News but he doesn’t need to be a VP to do that. I also think locking him into 4-8 years of being VP isn’t necessarily the best use of a very talented young politician who could run for high profile offices in a swing state.
Onhell
Infinite Dreamer
True. What I meant as "dream ticket" is exactly that. A dream that people can run for office regardless of race, sex/gender, sexual orientation, etc. etc.
Even if you're a white guy you have to get another white guy. Bush and Cheney, Kerry and Edwards come to mind. Especially Kerry and Edwards, because Edwards was selected for being young and a "Southern Democrat." Then he scandaled himself out of politics. But recently, Obama picked Biden, Biden Picked Harris, Harris has to pick a strong white, STRAIGHT, dude. But you're right, to be fair to the "boring, old, white guys," They're actually not that boring at all.
Yea I definitely think that's true. We're probably entering a period where there has to be some diversity on the ticket: you won't see two men on the same ticket (unless one of them is a POC), if there's a person of color you're going to see a white person as VP, etc. It's goofy, but I think that's going to be the calculus by both parties going forward. I think even the Republicans, if it had been someone other than Trump, would have put a woman as VP (or in the case of Nikki Haley a woman at the top plus a white man as VP). And if Trump wasn't in such a strong polling position, I think Elise Stefanik. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, or Kristi Noem (pre-dog assassination) would have been seen as more serious VP contenders.
I don't agree with it personally, but I think that's what the parties are going to see as a way to build coalitions, at least for the next few cycles. I actually think that, for example, if Kamala wanted to run Gretchen Whitmer as her VP it wouldn't be as much of an electoral liability as it is made out to be from the jump. I think having someone who speaks the language of rust belt voters, regardless of gender, is going to be key for this race. Whitmer is one of the best at selling a working class Democratic platform. Way better than Vance at least. But again, they're going to get the same benefit if they go with Shapiro or Kelly anyway.
I don't agree with it personally, but I think that's what the parties are going to see as a way to build coalitions, at least for the next few cycles. I actually think that, for example, if Kamala wanted to run Gretchen Whitmer as her VP it wouldn't be as much of an electoral liability as it is made out to be from the jump. I think having someone who speaks the language of rust belt voters, regardless of gender, is going to be key for this race. Whitmer is one of the best at selling a working class Democratic platform. Way better than Vance at least. But again, they're going to get the same benefit if they go with Shapiro or Kelly anyway.
Man, watching the Trump campaign implode in the last week or two has been amazing to watch. Biden's campaign decline may have been like a slow motion car crash, but Trump's more like a jetliner sputtering out of control. His campaign was clearly only prepared to take on Joe Biden, and now there are even rumors that people within the campaign already want to dump JD Vance from the ticket.
Obviously he is still a polling favorite, although that may not even be true anymore. I saw two national polls today that have Kamala Harris up with enough of a margin to probably win the electoral college as well. A lot of this is vibes, but the fact that Trump can't seem to handle the candidate change two weeks later is not a good sign. Amazing how quickly things can change.
His event speaking to black journalists today was probably the biggest disaster of his 2024 campaign so far:
- He questioned whether Kamala is actually black (I really want to see the Republicans try to pursue this line of attack, seriously good luck with that).
- He downplayed the role of JD Vance in his administration and refused to say if he would be ready on Day 1.
- He pledged to pardon Jan 6 rioters who injured police officers.
- He had to be taken off stage 30 minutes in to what scheduled to be an hour long event.
Honestly one of Trump's worst appearances ever and up there with some of his worst moments on either of his last two campaigns and as president. The campaign ads will write themselves.
Meanwhile Kamala Harris is actually going on offense with border stuff and hitting Trump for tanking a conservative border bill while pledging to sign it if she takes office.
There's a lot of talk about how in the coming days we're going to see a shift from vibes to hard numbers, but it's hard to find data that looks good for Trump. I will not be surprised if Kamala opens up a polling lead in the rust belt states and stays there until election day. I have seen nothing but clear signals that the electorate doesn't want a second Biden or Trump term and are more than happy to vote for the candidate that isn't either of them. The more Trump tries to appeal to racism the more he is just going to erode any gains he may have made with non-white voters and cut off any realistic path to an electoral college victory.
Obviously he is still a polling favorite, although that may not even be true anymore. I saw two national polls today that have Kamala Harris up with enough of a margin to probably win the electoral college as well. A lot of this is vibes, but the fact that Trump can't seem to handle the candidate change two weeks later is not a good sign. Amazing how quickly things can change.
His event speaking to black journalists today was probably the biggest disaster of his 2024 campaign so far:
- He questioned whether Kamala is actually black (I really want to see the Republicans try to pursue this line of attack, seriously good luck with that).
- He downplayed the role of JD Vance in his administration and refused to say if he would be ready on Day 1.
- He pledged to pardon Jan 6 rioters who injured police officers.
- He had to be taken off stage 30 minutes in to what scheduled to be an hour long event.
Honestly one of Trump's worst appearances ever and up there with some of his worst moments on either of his last two campaigns and as president. The campaign ads will write themselves.
Meanwhile Kamala Harris is actually going on offense with border stuff and hitting Trump for tanking a conservative border bill while pledging to sign it if she takes office.
There's a lot of talk about how in the coming days we're going to see a shift from vibes to hard numbers, but it's hard to find data that looks good for Trump. I will not be surprised if Kamala opens up a polling lead in the rust belt states and stays there until election day. I have seen nothing but clear signals that the electorate doesn't want a second Biden or Trump term and are more than happy to vote for the candidate that isn't either of them. The more Trump tries to appeal to racism the more he is just going to erode any gains he may have made with non-white voters and cut off any realistic path to an electoral college victory.
The man clearly wants to see an Iced Earth reunion tour with Barlow, can't fault him here.
Flaming Blimp Crash
Ancient Mariner
Trump chucking JD right under the bus today was something else.
So the obvious question is do we think the dump Vance movement is real? I have a hard time seeing it, but we’re not seeing much upside with Vance compared to quite a bit of downside. Best case is Trump wins and he has to deal with this guy for four years/until he resigns, worst case is Vance is damaging enough to sink Trump in a close race. Plus at this point honestly I would be worried about this guy being a woke insurgent. He is such a fake that who knows what he actually believes?
Again I kinda don’t see it but if we’re going with the most wild election year in history, why not just dump the VP too?
I think I’ve told you before I would be fully in favor of deporting Jon to Serbia so he can freely tour IE around Europe as much as he wants.
Jer
'Til Tomorrow
…only to die a tragic death after eating a pizza topped with a salmonella egg, unwittingly prepared by a loyal fan.
Vaenyr
Ancient Mariner
It was pretty hilarious seeing the very start. The first question is long and elaborate, explaining in detail how Trump has used negative language with regards to black interviewers time and time again. What does Trump do? Exactly what was just described to him. His first instinct was to just attack the interviewer. And it only got weirder from then on lol
By next Tuesday we'll know who the VP pick for Harris is going to be. It's pretty fascinating seeing the Dems work effectively for once while the GOP is imploding.
By next Tuesday we'll know who the VP pick for Harris is going to be. It's pretty fascinating seeing the Dems work effectively for once while the GOP is imploding.
No 538 model yet, but Nate Silver's updated model, which was very bullish on Trump, now has the race as a tossup. Kamala is narrowly leading (essentially tied) in the rust belt states.
substack.com
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
substack.com
Flaming Blimp Crash
Ancient Mariner
I'm really trying to not pay attention to any polls until after Labor Day. But, barring any sort of mother of October surprises for Kamala, I think this might be an early night on Tuesday Nov 5th. Which works for me, because I'll be at David Gilmour at MSG.
Trump's self-immolating, his VP pick is creepy and highly unfavorable with voters, Kamala hasn't even picked her VP yet and the Democratic Convention hasn't even been held yet. Plus, there's a potential debate looming on the horizon as well as Trump's sentencing in September.
No time for the Democrats to get complacent, keep your foot down.
Trump's self-immolating, his VP pick is creepy and highly unfavorable with voters, Kamala hasn't even picked her VP yet and the Democratic Convention hasn't even been held yet. Plus, there's a potential debate looming on the horizon as well as Trump's sentencing in September.
No time for the Democrats to get complacent, keep your foot down.
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I hope election results don’t take multiple days but iirc PA wasn’t called until Thursday or maybe even Friday. Obviously COVID made things weird, but not sure if these states have got a better mail in counting infrastructure in place. I kinda doubt we will have an election night call unless Trump hits 270 or Kamala flips a lean R state like FL or OH.
Flaming Blimp Crash
Ancient Mariner
I don't think there will be as much of a delay for election results this time around as the pandemic slowed a lot of things down in terms of processes last time.
Greece is far more likely, he'd be metal royalty down there.