USA Politics

Harris polls better than Biden. She obviously has her own baggage but also deals with Biden's biggest weakness, his age, so almost anyone who'd vote Biden would vote for her as well. Except some hardcore racist or misogynistic people I suppose who'd refuse to vote for a black woman under any circumstance.
 
Onhell said:
Dubya was "popular" with the "who'd you like to have a beer with," crowd. And the 2000 election was close enough to merit the famous Florida recount. That being said, even back then EVERYONE, including myself, freshly new in the U.S, knew he was the party's puppet the the person really pulling the strings was Chaney. He was also surrounded by staff that worked for his father.

His biggest moment was immediately after 9/11 and his, "We will find you, kill you, haunt your dreams" speech. That quickly went to shit when, again, obvious to everyone, he lumped Iraq with Afghanistan in his "Axis of Evil" and completely made up the WMD thing to invade... sorry, "liberate," the Iraqi people.

His pre-9/11 numbers weren't great, appeared to be on his way to being a 1 term president, but the whole, "presidents during war always get reelected" thing worked out for him.

As for No Child Left Behind, it was good in theory, horrendous in practice. As a high schooler during it and my mom an elementary teacher for 13 years, all it did was add more standardized tests that told us nothing of how the teacher, student and school was actually performing.

But yeah, in hindsight, he looks WAY better than either current candidate. For starters he wasn't a million years old while in office.

What I do miss from Dubya is he was still "old school" republican and you knew what you got. Typical economic/social, post-Reagan, conservatism.

That's what it was like from the inside as an outsider. I'd like to hear from an insider on the inside.
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That seems about right. W left office historically unpopular, more unpopular than Trump and probably more unpopular than Biden should he only serve one term. It’s hard to overstate how unpopular he was by the end, like I’m not sure it would be possible for another president to reach those numbers while in office.

I think his image rehabilitation is largely down to him not being an asshole and a lot of the foreign policy blunders being attributed to Cheney. A lot of Americans see him as a lovable idiot.

When Trump left office I leaned toward W being a worse president when you factor in 2 wars and the awful national security policies from 9/11. Plus Alito has been a worse judge than any of Trump’s picks so far. But Trump really seems poised to completely irredeemably wreck America, so the jury is out I guess.
 
Perun said:
Now that there's actually a chance that Biden will be replaced, @____no5 suddenly defects to his camp... :huh:
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I don’t like the guy but all this is unjust. Why I should cheer for such a thing? I would be happy to see him replaced. But again, whatever is so bluntly unjust still makes me react and feel kind of sad.
 
Perun said:
It's weird that you draw the line here when previously you were all too happy to make fun of him for his stutter or his well-known poor rhetorical skills.
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They are two different things. I would still make fun of him and I still don't like him, but the way he's been treated by his own party is sad. This discussion should have taken place before the primaries.
Except that by then Democrats were putting too much hope on Trump's trials and left leaning media & party members were hiding Biden's poor mental condition. It didn't matter if Biden was fit for president or not, the only thing that mattered was to win. This is not the right approach to start with.

Then take Obama. The definition of double face. After the debate he twitted that "bad nights happen" and on the background he is working with proxies to get Biden to step down. Should Biden had stepped down as a candidate? Fuck yes. But this should have happened last year so he passes to torch to a better candidate, fit to govern. Now the only viable option is Kamala which is a joke and I don't see how her candidacy could make things better for presidency than Biden's.

The only explanation is that representatives spent so much of their energy and capital defending Biden's mental condition "sharp as a tack" that now are afraid they will be dragged down with him. This does not apply to Kamala. Nobody tied himself to her. My view is that right now it's not about presidency any more, it's about the House.

Biden was never a sharp individual or politician. Probably he deserved this. But still it's sad to watch.

____no5 said:
I think Democrats know fully well that Harris won’t stand a chance against Trump but they think that by decoupling themselves from Biden they’ll save the House.
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TheMercenary said:
They should ask Michelle Obama to replace Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in the race for White House. She is the only chance for Democrats to win.
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@Yax, @Night Prowler and @Jer : You can laugh a lot, but there some articles here in french medias that are talking about the fact that if Joe Biden is retiring from the race, Michelle Obama (if she accepted to be the new candidate for Democrats) could seriously win these elections against Trump. ;)

Look at these links (you can Google Translate yourselves to translate the articles) :

www.20minutes.fr

Selon un sondage, seule Michelle Obama pourrait battre Donald Trump

Alors que de nombreux observateurs réclament le retrait de Joe Biden dans la course à la Maison blanche, Michelle Obama pourrait obtenir 50 % des suffrages contre 39 % pour Donald Trump selon une enquête Ipsos
www.20minutes.fr www.20minutes.fr

www.bfmtv.com

Michelle Obama pour remplacer Joe Biden à la présidentielle? Un sondage la place devant Donald Trump

Si Joe Biden devait laisser sa place à un autre démocrate dans la course à la Maison Blanche, seule Michelle Obama serait en capacité de recueillir plus de voix que Donald Trump, selon une enquête de l'institut Ipsos publiée ce mardi 2 juillet
www.bfmtv.com www.bfmtv.com

information.tv5monde.com

Présidentielle aux Etats-Unis : Michelle Obama face à Donald Trump ?

Et si Joe Biden se retirait de la course à la présidentielle aux Etats-Unis ? Qui, dans le camp démocrate, pour affronter Donald Trump lors de l'élection de novembre 2024 ? Un récent sondage donne une seule personne capable de le battre : l'ancienne Première dame Michelle Obama.
information.tv5monde.com information.tv5monde.com


www.huffingtonpost.fr

Il n’y a que cette personnalité qui peut battre Trump si Biden se désiste selon ce sondage

De moins en moins convaincant, le président américain est largement concurrencé par la femme de Barack Obama selon un sondage Ipsos.
www.huffingtonpost.fr www.huffingtonpost.fr
 
TheMercenary said:
Michelle Obama (if she accepted to be the new candidate for Democrats) could seriously win these elections against Trump. ;)
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Any non-elderly, non-psycho, not overly woke Democrat should be able to beat Trump (with some caveats).

Michelle Obama’s numbers are artificially high because she was never an actual politician and doesn’t have a voting record. The moment she started taking actual positions on things her numbers would drop to something more realistic. Same as if Laura Bush had decided to run for president in 2008.

More importantly, Michelle Obama has no interest in running.
 
Jer said:
[...] she was never an actual politician and doesn’t have a voting record.
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That's not a problem. French president Emmanuel Macron was never a politician before becoming minister of economy and finance in 2012. He didn't not have any voting record either.
Jer said:
More importantly, Michelle Obama has no interest in running.
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That's the problem.
Jer said:
Any non-elderly, non-psycho, not overly woke Democrat should be able to beat Trump (with some caveats).
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It's not sure. Other potential candidates for Democratic party are not well placed in official polls to beat Trump...
 
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TheMercenary said:
Other potential candidates for Democratic party are not well placed in official polls to beat Trump...
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A lot of that is name recognition at this point, and Trump being at a local high due to the assassination attempt, the convention, and the Democrats being in such turmoil right now.

The safest Dem ticket under these circumstances would be two moderate, middle-aged cis/hetero white men from swing states, just to avoid any prejudices getting in the way of potential swing voters voting Democrat, and maximizing the potential positive impact in swing states. But because of the realities of how campaign finance works, Harris probably has to inherit the top of the ticket, otherwise any direct contributions already made to the Biden/Harris campaign wouldn’t be transferable.
 
The polls of other candidates are mostly useful for telling us that people don’t want to vote for Biden but would be open to an alternative, and that being part of the Biden administration may drag down Kamala some (although she still appears to be a better candidate than Biden). There is not enough name ID for other candidates to get a good read on how they would be received and it’s also hard when it’s a hypothetical question. People throw names like Michelle Obama and Mark Cuban around because they aren’t familiar with other candidates imo. There are plenty of Dems being floated who are holding office and have an electoral track record of building the sort of coalition that Biden is struggling with right now.

At any rate I’m thinking we will find out tomorrow or Monday.
 
Mosh said:
The polls of other candidates are mostly useful for telling us that people don’t want to vote for Biden but would be open to an alternative, and that being part of the Biden administration may drag down Kamala some (although she still appears to be a better candidate than Biden). There is not enough name ID for other candidates to get a good read on how they would be received and it’s also hard when it’s a hypothetical question. People throw names like Michelle Obama and Mark Cuban around because they aren’t familiar with other candidates imo. There are plenty of Dems being floated who are holding office and have an electoral track record of building the sort of coalition that Biden is struggling with right now.

At any rate I’m thinking we will find out tomorrow or Monday.
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The thing that blows my mind that people (not on here, but elsewhere on the interwebs) don't seem to grasp is how well the alternates already in the political arena (I don't quite count first ladies) poll in comparison to Trump. The panic of "Oh no, Whitmer is down two points in comparison to Biden" is quite overblown when you realize that the nation as a whole isn't going to fully recognize who the governor of Michigan is.

Then again, when you consider that 25% of the nation hates both of our current candidates from each major party should tell it all. Both Biden and Trump are easily beatable candidates.
 
Vaenyr said:

IT'S JOEVER (100.0%)

Get the latest odds on Joe Biden being replaced as the Democratic nominee via the official Joever Needle™
isitjoever.com isitjoever.com

:D

Biden officially stepped down. Let's see who the candidate is going to be.
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Yes it's official. Hopefully they get someone in who can unite the party and has the ability to defeat Trump.

www.theguardian.com

Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit

President endorses Kamala Harris to lead Democratic ticket just four months before November election
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Honestly I think there won't be any issue uniting behind one candidate. Now, if there's infighting between factions in an open convention between Harris and whoever (I think Newsom/Whitmer will step down from making challenges and bide their time for 2028-2032) that's another story. But, I don't think that's likely.
 
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