USA Politics

Yax said:
He could have just favored an open convention and referred to an open, more democratic process
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And they can very well do that (and still might), but when it appears that the most prominent potentially 'substitutes' are already falling in line behind the Harris name, it'd be a fairly open-and-shut process.
 
It would have been less weird a month ago, but overall picking Harris is the cleanest option. It seems like she will functionally lock up the nomination today and be able to start campaigning immediately. This will be good, she can do multiple rallies a day, fundraising calls, and TV appearances. All things that Biden and Trump don’t have the stamina for.
 
The Republican response so far is real weak sauce and I think shows how vulnerable Trump is against another candidate. They clearly want to continue running against Biden.
 
Mosh said:
It would have been less weird a month ago, but overall picking Harris is the cleanest option. It seems like she will functionally lock up the nomination today and be able to start campaigning immediately. This will be good, she can do multiple rallies a day, fundraising calls, and TV appearances. All things that Biden and Trump don’t have the stamina for.
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Believe she's going to wait to officially campaign until Biden makes his official address. While it's clear that she's going to be the official nominee as all the serious contenders don't appear to be mounting challenges for the position (Joe Manchin, lol), laying low for a few days is the right way to play it. Optically, it's the best way to play it to appear that you'll have to fight for it rather than just have it bestowed on you.

Mosh said:
The Republican response so far is real weak sauce and I think shows how vulnerable Trump is against another candidate. They clearly want to continue running against Biden.
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Yeah "No, wait, you can't do that, come back or we'll sue to make you stay" doesn't exactly express confidence from their side. But, hey, Joe Biden wasn't officially the nominee until declared at the Convention. So, congrats, you spent your convention target fixated on a guy not even running. :D
 
I’ll be curious to see polling to get an idea of Harris’ floor and her ceiling. Trump is probably at his polling peak, may break 50% for a post RNC/assassination attempt bounce, but will probably settle around 46-47% in swing states. The question will be whether Kamala can break 50% in polls like Biden did in 2020, whether she hovers around 45-49%, or if she trails behind Trump by multiple points (this seems less likely). At the very least, I think this resets things back to a 2016-like environment where Harris will almost certainly win the popular vote and worst case scenario will be within the margin of error in the Rust Belt. At the same time, it’s also possible that this reverts back to a 2020 environment where she’s ahead in all the swing states and is looking at map expansion. Either way this kneecaps Trump’s efforts toward a popular vote victory/his own map expansion. I don’t see the bottom falling out for Harris the way it could have for Biden, as people are going to be very energized to vote for her and against Trump.

It’s easy to overthink this one, but I think Harris can win with a very simple messaging strategy:

1: Abortion rights.

2: Preventing Project 2025

3: Trump is unqualified to be president, he is a convicted felon, and he is too old.

At the end of the day, voters think republicans are too extreme and don’t want to vote for a convicted felon. Removing the central issue that was drawing people to Trump (Biden’s age) could easily change this into another race where Trump is an underdog.
 
Criticizing the GOP's efforts regarding abortion has been a winning strategy for a while. These arguments coming from a woman are even more powerful and will probably result in very effective optics.
The "prosecutor vs felon" could also be an interesting angle to pursue.

I think this whole thing will end up energizing moderates and left wing voters, while the MAGA folks seem to be floundering a bit. None of their tactics are working. They've tried the talking point that Kamala's parents aren't natural born US citizens, which is irrelevant since she is one. I think they are panicking a bit.
 
I don't know how much Biden himself had to do with it, but the point for him to drop out is about absolutely perfect. The RNC would have been Trump's best chance to define the new candidate, but they kept going after Sleepy Joe instead of whatever nickname he makes up for Harris. Now the Dems have a couple weeks to get endorsements in line and move to a convention that will most likely be a coronation and a strong chance for Harris to define herself to the American public. And if it's not in line, and there's an actual vote that matters, the drama will heighten views. I figure the former is more likely than the latter.

When Harris gets up after endorsement speeches from Bill and Hillary, Barack and Michelle, Joe and Jill, she will have several of the more popular figures in the country behind her. Hell, she may even get a letter from Jimmy Carter, who refuses to die despite being in palliative care for months and months. And if they're smart, they'll try to grab a couple GOP-lite figures (Kinzinger, Liz Cheney, possibly Arnold Schwarzenegger) to come and give speeches from the "I don't agree with everything but we agree Trump must be stopped" perspective.

The other two big chances the new ticket will have is going to be the debates. JD Vance is decently clever, mostly because he's not a true red MAGA type but an opportunist. I think any of the top-flight Harris options can take him to a draw. But if Trump doesn't whine out of the second debate, there's going to be a moment where Harris gets to say to Trump directly, "I used to put criminals like you in prison" that's going to play really well in the centre.
 
LooseCannon said:
When Harris gets up after endorsement speeches from Bill and Hillary, Barack and Michelle, Joe and Jill, she will have several of the more popular figures in the country behind her. Hell, she may even get a letter from Jimmy Carter, who refuses to die despite being in palliative care for months and months. And if they're smart, they'll try to grab a couple GOP-lite figures (Kinzinger, Liz Cheney, possibly Arnold Schwarzenegger) to come and give speeches from the "I don't agree with everything but we agree Trump must be stopped" perspective.
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Her endorsement would mean a lot and she's been rather mum about it, I think Taylor Swift shows up on the last night of the DNC. If there's like one person on the planet that truly is hailed like some cult leader, it's her. Think her European tour ends a few days prior anyway.

There's a reason Trump was freaking out about her a couple of months ago - even when she hadn't said a word about this year's election.
 
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