USA Politics

[TheMercenary]

Huh, there's a lot of articles in Czech media (and only there, it seems) about Biden admitting the possibility of stepping down, if a doctor says he has any type of diagnosis (??)

Allegedly it was during the BET interview, but I wasn't able to check it.

You can find one of these articles on Novinky.cz :

Biden veřejně připustil, že by to mohl zabalit - Novinky

Americký prezident Joe Biden by se mohl vzdát snahy obhajovat mandát v listopadových volbách, pokud by ho doktoři upozornili na určitý zdravotní problém. Připustil to v televizním rozhovoru. Bidena, kterému je 81 let, k takovému kroku již nyní veřejně vyzývá i rostoucí počet činitelů jeho...

www.novinky.cz

Biden has publicly admitted that he might wrap it up

Martin Dohnal
386
Dnes 17. 7., 13:17

US President Joe Biden could give up trying to defend the mandate in the November elections if doctors warn him of a certain health problem. He admitted it in a TV interview. Biden, who is 81 years old, is already being publicly called on by a growing number of officials in his own Democratic Party to take such a step. For now, however, he insists on his candidacy.

“If I was in a certain state of health, if something came to light. If the doctors came to me and said, 'You have such and such a problem,'" Biden responded to a direct question from Black Entertainment Television (BET) host Ed Gordon about what would make him withdraw from this year's presidential race.

The station shared the video preview before publishing the entire interview.

Despite growing doubts about his physical and mental condition, Biden has resolutely rejected calls to withdraw his candidacy. But last week, for example, in an interview with the ABC station, he said that he would do it if "God Almighty" himself told him that he could not defeat his Republican son, 78-year-old Donald Trump.

In the current interview on CBS's BET station, Biden also touched on the June televised debate with Trump, in which he scared off even his supporters with his weak performance, and also admitted that in the previous election in 2020, he appeared as a presidential candidate for a "transitional period".

“I made a serious mistake in this whole debate…look when I originally ran, you may remember, I said I was going to be an interim candidate. I thought I could move on and pass it on to someone else. But I didn't expect there to be such a division," Biden said, in an apparent reference to the heated atmosphere among supporters of the main political camps in the US.

​

 

[Spaldy]

 

[Flaming Blimp Crash]

Funniest take I was seeing was that he picked JD just because they only had to change two letters on the campaign sign. LOL

 

[Vaenyr]

The funny thing is that with Vance Trump's campaign seems to be going full steam ahead with a national, total abortion ban, despite how unpopular that is with most voters in the country. It's like they can't help themselves and are actively trying to shoot themselves in the foot.

Let's hope the Dems will capitalize on that and build some momentum. The recent rumblings about proposed Supreme Court overhauls, rent cap at 5%, etc could really work in activating younger or disaffected voters with the proper messaging.

 

[Jer]

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Interesting that 538 currently has the race at a 54% chance of Biden winning. They incorporate more factors like economic fundamentals rather than just polling, but I’m surprised that it deviates this much from recent polling averages.

 

[Mosh]

Their model relies too heavily on fundamentals IMO. If they were going to have a forecast that is designed not to move until around September, they shouldn’t have launched it until then. I am not really sure how useful it is to have a forecast that won’t budge based on being given data such as polls and news events. Especially when you dig into individual state polling and see the gaps between a polls only forecast and the one with fundamentals baked in. E.g. Wisconsin has a 57% chance but the polling averages show a 2 point lead for Trump.

There’s validity to their approach, I think the fact that people are writing off Biden now ignores the fact that undecideds are likely to break in his favor. So I can see how a model that is bullish on the incumbent makes sense, but it also ignores a lot of the movement currently happening. My biggest gripe is that people in the Biden camp seem to be using the model as evidence that things aren’t as bad for Biden as it seems. Which, as the 538 people would say, is a bad use of data.

 

[Mosh]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/17/biden-step-aside-schiff-pelosi-election-00169025

Huge L for Biden here.

From the article:
"A Schiff representative did not say if the Los Angeles Democrat had cleared his statement with Pelosi. But the two are usually politically aligned. Pelosi endorsed Schiff’s Senate bid early, helping him to consolidate support from donors and much of the California delegation."

IMO this is the opening of the floodgates and I wouldn't be surprised if higher up dems like Jeffries and Pelosi come forward next.

 

[____no5]

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Interesting that 538 currently has the race at a 54% chance of Biden winning. They incorporate more factors like economic fundamentals rather than just polling, but I’m surprised that it deviates this much from recent polling averages.

Well according to the 13 keys he was going to win 2 weeks ago. Let's re-examine them:

• KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)
• KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)
• KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)
• KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (FALSE)
• KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)
• KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (TRUE)
• KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)
• KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (FALSE)
• KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)
• KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE) (FALSE)
• KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)
• KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)
• KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)

What has changed is that after assassination Trump can be definitely seen as a National Hero, that picture with the first will be is already iconic. Also unlike Lichtman I put FALSE for Key 8.

Biden still wins, though marginally.

EDIT: Key 10 is FALSE, Afghanistan was a major failure. Trump wins.

Looking at 2024:
KEY 1 PARTY MANDATE FALSE
KEY 2 CONTEST TRUE
KEY 3 INCUMBENCY TRUE
KEY 4 THIRD PARTY LEANS FALSE
KEY 5 SHORT-TERM ECONOMY LEANS TRUE
KEY 6 LONG-TERM ECONOMY LEANS TRUE
KEY 7 POLICY CHANGE TRUE
KEY 8 SOCIAL UNREST LEANS TRUE
KEY 9 SCANDAL LEANS TRUE
KEY 10 FOREIGN/MILITARY FAILURE LEANS FALSE
KEY 11 FOREIGN/MILITARY SUCCESS LEANS FALSE
KEY 12 INCUMBENT CHARISMA FALSE
KEY 13 CHALLENGER CHARISMA TRUE

According to this, Biden wins for the following reasons:
1: No significant primary contest
2: Biden is an incumbent president
3: The short term economy is good
4: The short term economy is good
5: Biden has had significant policy changes
6: No social unrest
7: No major scandal
8: Trump is uncharismatic and not a national hero.

This is where we run into major problems.

- While it's true that Biden is an incumbent president, I think there's reason to think his incumbency advantage has all but eroded in the polls. Not just is he a historically unpopular president, but I think facing off another former president is negating the advantage. I also think the national mood is one that makes incumbency possibly a disadvantage.

The wording of the key is clear. Incumbent leaves no room for interpretations. No need to complicate too much.

- The economy is good yes, but voters don't perceive it to be good. Biden's low numbers particularly with minority and lower income groups kinda shows that perception of the economy is actually quite negative. This is a big deal and voters perception of the economy is going to affect the outcome more than the actual economic numbers.

Nope. The wording of the key is not "perceive as good". It's about real economic metrics. Thus TRUE.

- Saying no significant social unrest is a stretch. There is reason to think that the Gaza protests have had an affect on Biden's popularity. Whether it is the perception of Biden as "Genocide Joe" or criticisms that he isn't strong enough on Israel, I think he is suffering between both factions. Whether it is enough to affect the outcome is secondary, but this speaks to my point that not all keys are created equal.

- While not a scandal per se, I would argue that Biden's debate performance more or less has the effect of one. Being old isn't a scandal, but an October surprise where Biden has a senior moment will cost him the election.

Again, scandal means scandal. Need to consider the exact wording for the keys.

- Trump is charismatic and a national hero to some. I think it is foolish to assume that everybody sees Trump as uncharismatic or as the criminal that most rational people see him as. Trump has been lionized by a group of people and I think is even winning over swing voters with his persona, as much as I hate to say it.

I don't think Trump was qualifying as charismatic /national hero before the assassination attempt. Now surely qualifies.

So right off the bat, I think 5 of the "true" keys are debatable. But I also just think these keys fail to capture the dynamic of the race. None of the keys take into account the actual struggles Biden is having on the campaign trail. Nor do they take into account how a convicted felon former president is ahead in polls.

Anyway, this got really long winded but it is something that causes me to roll my eyes every time it comes up. I don't think this guy's predictions are that impressive and I think his actual methodology is extremely flawed.

As explained above and previously those keys apply to many more elections before 1984 I don't remember if all, but for sure quite a lot, could be all.

 

[Yax]

Huh, there's a lot of articles in Czech media (and only there, it seems) about Biden admitting the possibility of stepping down, if a doctor says he has any type of diagnosis (??)

Allegedly it was during the BET interview, but I wasn't able to check it.

So, that was apparently a brand new statement. I guess it's either that he's preparing the option for a dignified way out, or just a tiny bit of verbal appeasement while doing the opposite. I'm more prone to the latter.

Biden Says He’d Consider Dropping Out if a ‘Medical Condition’ Emerged

President Biden has said none of his doctors have told him he has a serious medical condition. But his debate performance last month raised questions about his health and acuity.

www.nytimes.com

 

[____no5]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813626264957440282

 

[Mosh]

So, that was apparently a brand new statement. I guess it's either that he's preparing the option for a dignified way out, or just a tiny bit of verbal appeasement while doing the opposite. I'm more prone to the latter.

Biden Says He’d Consider Dropping Out if a ‘Medical Condition’ Emerged

President Biden has said none of his doctors have told him he has a serious medical condition. But his debate performance last month raised questions about his health and acuity.

www.nytimes.com

It seems like the latter but I also don’t really understand why he would move the goal posts toward a reality where he leaves the race.

“Only god almighty will stop me” -> “I’ll leave if I have a medical condition”

If you’re going to dig in you need to dig in.

The RNC ends tomorrow. Schiff’s statement could be the start of a 24 hour public pressure campaign that culminates with Biden making the tough decision this weekend.

 

[Mosh]

There was also an Ipsos poll that showed all alternative challengers doing better against Trump than Biden, with Harris being the weakest of the group. It’s becoming frustrating to watch as the picture becomes clearer. Republicans are displaying confidence not only of a Trump win but a landslide, but it is increasingly becoming clear that a change of candidate could easily change this into a Republican wipeout.

 

[bearfan]

Now Biden has COVID.

 

[Flaming Blimp Crash]

Now Biden has COVID.

You ever get the feeling God's trying to tell you something?

 

[Mosh]

He challenged the lord almighty to send him a message.

 

[Flaming Blimp Crash]

Reminds me of the story of The Drowning Man.

"I gave you Covid, a shit performance in a debate, bad polls, and the national narrative turning against you... what more did you expect!?"

 

[Mosh]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/17/schumer-biden-directly-concerned-about-election-00169206

At this point they have nothing to lose going public calling for Biden to step aside.

 

[Mosh]

Does anyone here actually think Biden is going to drop out citing Covid complications as a “medical reason” ?

 

[Flaming Blimp Crash]

Not because of Covid, no. Although could you imagine if he were to do so and he did it right when Trump started his RNC speech tomorrow? Take the eyeballs right off him.

 

[Mosh]

Not because of Covid, no. Although could you imagine if he were to do so and he did it right when Trump started his RNC speech tomorrow? Take the eyeballs right off him.

Not just a badass move, but maybe the strategically necessary one. Trump and the Republicans have had complete control of the narrative for the last month and his speech tomorrow is going to be a huge moment for the campaign. Biden announcing his withdrawal tomorrow will steal Trump’s thunder and set up the necessary reset with a new candidate.

I can’t help but think the barrage of stories about Biden being more open to reconsidering, multiple top democrats speaking with him, Adam Schiff, the medical condition comment, and now Biden having covid all in one day can’t be coincidence. Covid is more unpredictable, but it’s possible they knew earlier than suggested. Could also say that Covid treatment uncovered an underlying condition that requires Biden to step aside for his health.