USA Politics

Honestly it's impossible to say how voters will take this. For one thing, it's so far out from the election that people may just forget about it by then. A whole host of other things could occur by then like a Biden health scare or some other unforeseen event. At the same time, if the election comes and Joe Biden wins we will likely be talking about how of course America wasn't going to elect a convicted felon for president. People who are excited about this one way or the other are already baked in, but I could see it motivating suburban swing voters to finally come home to Biden. I'm not sure it's going to motivate people who weren't already voting for Trump to support him.

We'll see, but this is turning out to be the most unusual and unpredictable election in a very long time. You can't reliably poll or predict anything about this because America has never had a felon as a major candidate (?) and we haven't seen a former incumbent president run again after losing since the 1800s. None of it makes any sense.

I still strongly believe that the narrative on this election is all wrong. A lot of attention is on Biden's weaknesses, and indeed he is a very weak candidate. He has an abysmal approval rating, most Americans aren't happy with current conditions, etc etc. He should be on track to lose this handily. But he is not (yet) being trounced in the polls by Trump. Trump is still posting pretty unimpressive primary numbers despite being treated like an incumbent and his main opponent having dropped out months ago. Neither candidate is running a particularly good campaign, but Biden has room to build his support while Trump is probably at his peak in polling.
 
Mosh said:
I'm not sure it's going to motivate people who weren't already voting for Trump to support him.
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This is the key point here. Convictions don’t buy Trump any extra non-Republican votes, and those are the exact votes he would need to win in 2024. Other side effects are debatable, but this outcome absolutely does not grow his voter base.
 
There's a possibility that it allows him to activate some of the lapsed Trump voters, but I don't really see it. I tend to think Trump has already maximized his vote count and the rest is about suppressing Biden's totals.
 
Remember, uncommitted/independent voters fled from Hillary Clinton at the 11th hour at the mere idea that she was going to be charged with a crime. Trump's base is going to vote for him no matter what. Biden does have issues with energizing/motivating his base, but the uncommitted folks? Good luck trying to convince them to vote for the convicted felon.
 
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Also, consider that polling is getting worse and worse in terms of accuracy. Democratic candidates have been outperforming the polls in special elections. Am I saying the Biden campaign should take solace in that fact? No. His approval rating's still not great. But, it's not as dire as the media's making it out to be.
 
Flaming Blimp Crash said:
Remember, uncommitted/independent voters fled from Hillary Clinton at the 11th hour at the mere idea that she was going to be charged with a crime. Trump's base is going to vote for him no matter what. Biden does have issues with energizing/motivating his base, but the uncommitted folks? Good luck trying to convince them to vote for the convicted felon.
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Apples and oranges. Here we have what many people consider weaponization of justice which can play in favor of Trump. Independent voters means they listen all voices and too many voices cry for lawfare.
For Hillary it was one more evidence she might be evil after all, which is pretty believable and confirmed voters’ worst fears.
I may be wrong but we’ll know in a few months time.
 
____no5 said:
Here we have what many people consider weaponization of justice which can play in favor of Trump.
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Only ignorant people, morons, and Republican “true believers” are susceptible to believing this, sorry. If you think the president can unduly influence the activities of a state court, then you fundamentally don’t understand how the U.S. legal system works. Either educate yourself or face the slings and arrows you deserve for spreading uninformed bullshit like this.

____no5 said:
Independent voters means they listen all voices and too many voices cry for lawfare.
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No one has made a credible “lawfare” argument yet. Dershowitz keeps saying it, but he has yet to back it up with any evidence or solid reasoning.

____no5 said:
I may be wrong but we’ll know in a few months time.
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You are wrong, and we already know it now.
 
I'm not at all hopeful that the guilty verdict will in any way keep Trump out of a second term, and believe it will likely galvanize his fanatical followers. This is a man who already caused a straight up insurrection on live TV. If anyone else had pulled that shit they'd have been tried and convicted of treason. Yet close to half the country still wants Trump in office. So at this point, I don't see anything stopping him aside from votes.
 
Jer said:
No one has made a credible “lawfare” argument yet. Dershowitz keeps saying it, but he has yet to back it up with any evidence or solid reasoning.
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Dershowitz is a very serious law professor and democrat, I guess he needs to educate himself too.

Jer said:
You are wrong, and we already know it now.
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Let's wait until November. My argument was that Trump might end up stronger after this. No surprise you lost your temper again and carried away with your smearing.
 
chaosapiant said:
This is a man who already caused a straight up insurrection on live TV. If anyone else had pulled that shit they'd have been tried and convicted of treason.
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Sedition and/or insurrection, but not treason, unless he was doing it on behalf of a foreign government.

And he is being tried for this, it’s just that the actual trial hasn’t started yet because of a combination of his lawyers’ delay tactics and the Supreme Court not acting faster. (And if he wins the election, he might be able to make the federal charges go away.)
 
____no5 said:
Dershowitz is a very serious law professor and democrat, I guess he needs to educate himself too.
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A brand name isn’t an argument. Show me a credible argument made by him or anyone else that explains how Biden magically made the New York State legal system bend to his will, or accept the fact that you’re spreading false propaganda.

____no5 said:
My argument was that Trump might end up stronger after this.
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Point to anything suggesting that this helps him with people who aren’t already part of his base. I’ll wait.

____no5 said:
No surprise you lost your temper again and carried away with your smearing.
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It’s not “smearing” when it’s true. You don’t have the first clue what you’re talking about here, you’ve been corrected on it multiple times, and yet in typical @____no5 fashion you keep repeating your misinformation anyway. Either do better, or stop pretending other people are in the wrong when they call you out on your obvious bullshit.
 
Jer said:
Sedition and/or insurrection, but not treason, unless he was doing it on behalf of a foreign government.

And he is being tried for this, it’s just that the actual trial hasn’t started yet because of a combination of his lawyers’ delay tactics and the Supreme Court not acting faster. (And if he wins the election, he might be able to make the federal charges go away.)
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This is a good correction, thank you! But it still makes my point stand. I feel had anyone else done this on live TV, there'd be much less delaying and much more convicting.
 
____no5 said:
Apples and oranges. Here we have what many people consider weaponization of justice which can play in favor of Trump. Independent voters means they listen all voices and too many voices cry for lawfare.
For Hillary it was one more evidence she might be evil after all, which is pretty believable and confirmed voters’ worst fears.
I may be wrong but we’ll know in a few months time.
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Jer said:
Only ignorant people, morons, and Republican “true believers” are susceptible to believing this, sorry. If you think the president can unduly influence the activities of a state court, then you fundamentally don’t understand how the U.S. legal system works. Either educate yourself or face the slings and arrows you deserve for spreading uninformed bullshit like this.


No one has made a credible “lawfare” argument yet. Dershowitz keeps saying it, but he has yet to back it up with any evidence or solid reasoning.


You are wrong, and we already know it now.
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____no5 said:
Dershowitz is a very serious law professor and democrat, I guess he needs to educate himself too.



Let's wait until November. My argument was that Trump might end up stronger after this. No surprise you lost your temper again and carried away with your smearing.
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Jer said:
A brand name isn’t an argument. Show me a credible argument made by him or anyone else that explains how Biden magically made the New York State legal system bend to his will, or accept the fact that you’re spreading false propaganda.


Point to anything suggesting that this helps him with people who aren’t already part of his base. I’ll wait.


It’s not “smearing” when it’s true. You don’t have the first clue what you’re talking about here, you’ve been corrected on it multiple times, and yet in typical @____no5 fashion you keep repeating your misinformation anyway. Either do better, or stop pretending other people are in the wrong when they call you out on your obvious bullshit.
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I think I'm starting to see what Nietzsche meant when he was talking about eternal recurrence.
 
Jer said:
Fair enough, but if we give up on resisting nonsense just because it becomes tiresome, then the nonsense wins.
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Agree with your point, and let's just say I spoke to both sides here.
 
Gotta say, it's been fascinating seeing some of the reactions from conservatives on social media. So many folks instantly flipped from "law and order" to "sham trial, I support Trump even more now". There are fanboys for bands like Maiden who are less obsessed with their idols than many of the MAGAs are with Trump.
 
It's not surprising in the least. The amount of mental gymnastics to defend Trump has been a thing since 2016. Just looking at statements like these:
____no5 said:
Here we have what many people consider weaponization of justice which can play in favor of Trump. Independent voters means they listen all voices and too many voices cry for lawfare.
For Hillary it was one more evidence she might be evil after all, which is pretty believable and confirmed voters’ worst fears.
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No reasonable person would ever say or genuinely believe anything this nonsensical if the context of who involved was removed. Add Trump to the mix and you have to defy logic to defend him.
 
Mosh said:
It's not surprising in the least. The amount of mental gymnastics to defend Trump has been a thing since 2016. Just looking at statements like these:


No reasonable person would ever say or genuinely believe anything this nonsensical if the context of who involved was removed. Add Trump to the mix and you have to defy logic to defend him.
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This is a more succinct way of stating what I was getting at earlier. Trump in and of himself is a harmless dolt. But he has a cult of weaponized stupidity following him that is incredibly frightening and dangerous.

If Trump had been a part of the Watergate Scandal, he’d have owned it and been re-elected over it.
 
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