USA Politics

Gotta say, watching the House GOP falling apart and Trump's legal issues and resulting shenanigans the past week was pretty entertaining.
Curious to see if the House'll stay with a Republican majority until election or if more representatives will resign until then.
 
Ken Buck said there were several members thinking of leaving. I’m guessing the house will change hands sometime before the conventions, maybe during whatever fallout comes from the new motion to vacate being pushed by MTG. Problem is I doubt anyone wants to be the rep that gives Democrats a majority. Going to be fascinating to watch.
 
This thread has been quiet lately, which is funny considering since the last post Trump's NYC trial has started and Biden has been doing more campaigning. It doesn't really seem like there's much to talk about weirdly, but there's this new poll:
www.nytimes.com

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden

A new set of Times/Siena polls, including one with The Philadelphia Inquirer, reveal an erosion of support for the president among young and nonwhite voters upset about the economy and Gaza.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Key data:
Wisconsin - Biden +3
Pennsylvania - Trump +2
Arizona - Trump +7 (!)
Michigan - Trump +7 (!)
Georgia - Trump +10 (!!)
Nevada - Trump +12 (!!!)

Trump clears 50% only in Nevada (although when adjusted for likely voters instead of registered voters, he clears 50% in Georgia as well).

In all of the states with Senate races as well (NV, AZ, PA WI), the democrats are leading.

You can find any amount of punditry about what these numbers mean, but I think it's all hand wringing at least until July. With that being said, I do find it very worrying that despite multiple indictments and continuing to show that he is totally incompetent and unqualified for the job, Trump is still seen as a viable choice enough to lead in these early polls.

The silver lining for Biden is that this is probably a best case scenario for Trump and he probably isn't going to improve his standings in polls, but he could definitely lose support compared to where he is now. Additionally, if Trump continues to use all his money on legal fees and not campaigning, it's going to be easier for Biden to close the gap in these states and put other states in play (NC/OH/FL).
 
I really don't think the polls are representative in any way. It's far too early for that. You can find other polls that have Biden leading by huge margins.

As for the loyalty of Trump supporters: They've essentially created their own reality. Anything negative will be misconstrued as a baseless attack or a lie, despite how much evidence there is. What's even more frustrating is the hypocrisy of it all, where they'll accuse the other side of something that they themselves do. It's not about arguments or policies anymore, it's purely about loyalty to your team.

And by the way, while we're at it: The events of the past few weeks have indeed shown that there are actually two justice systems in the US, but instead of the allegations that it's a rigged system against Trump we've seen time and again that he is treated with kid's gloves and that anyone else in his position would've already faced severe punishments for their actions.
 
Yax said:
Isn't this poll an outlier though?
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Not to my knowledge, every poll of swing states I’ve seen has had Trump ahead. Granted there haven’t been a lot of polls yet, but there is clearly a trend of polling favoring trump.
 
Mosh said:
Not to my knowledge, every poll of swing states I’ve seen has had Trump ahead. Granted there haven’t been a lot of polls yet, but there is clearly a trend of polling favoring trump.
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The trend though is that his numbers are going down and there are a lot of polls showing a rough tie or Biden lead in the swing states, although not as recent. Thus 12 points up like here is massive and deviates which raises the question of whether the sample is adequate or skewed. This poll is a bit sketchy. It is an outlier because of how far it puts Trump. Besides, the Dems have over performed in lots of elections in 2022 and onwards. Can’t think of a single one where they underperformed.
 
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Yax said:
The trend though is that his numbers are going down. 12 points up like here is massive. This poll is a bit sketchy. It is an outlier.
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I agree with that, but the general trend of Trump being ahead hasn't really changed. Trump isn't going to win by these margins, but I think the polls are useful to the extent that they show a competitive race and Trump should be treated as the frontrunner imo. It's early of course, but polls like these should be taken seriously.

Personally, I think Wisconsin and PA are very winnable for Biden. I wouldn't call WI a lock, but it's close. It seems to have had the most left-ward swing since 2020, which is good since Biden barely won it last time. PA imo is the bluest of these swing states and 47% is probably Trump's ceiling there. Biden can easily close the gap there.

After that, all he needs is Michigan. He's not going to lose by 7 points, but with third parties he could end up with 47-48% which could give the state to Trump. It'll be close but this is his closest path to reelection. If he loses Michigan he needs either Georgia or Arizona + Nevada. I think he actually has a pretty good shot in AZ, not sure about GA or NV but either way I wouldn't count on those states compared to Michigan.
 
I'm waiting to read some analysis on the Siena poll by some American pollwatchers I like. I'm still inclined to not freak out too much.
 
Vaenyr said:

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www.cnbc.com
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