USA Politics

Vaenyr said:
The sad thing is that there's a sizeable chunk of people who will vote for Trump, no matter what. They'll proclaim to be for "law and order" in the same breath in which they'll say "now I'll vote even harder for him". Trump managed to grift raise more than 70 million from his cultists following the verdict.
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"I'll vote even harder for him" -- as if they were going to sit on the sidelines for the election for him anyway? :D

Ooooooo, scary.
 
Yea, that kinda goes to what I said about Trump probably being at a peak in polling. Yes this sort of thing galvanizes his supporters and makes them more enthusiastic but... they can only each vote once.

The attitude that this will help Trump is a primary mindset imo. The indictments that happened last year helped Trump consolidate his support among Republicans and was a net benefit for him in the primary. The same logic is not necessarily going to apply in a general election because his supporters have been on board the entire time.
 
Truthfully, I don't think there was much competition for Trump in the primaries anyways. DeSantis was the only true threat but kneecapped himself from the get-go by running further to the right than Trump. I get primaries are for the base anyways, but when you're running and making Trump look like the sane one, you're fooling yourself on your electoral chances. Didn't help that DeSantis proved to be utterly devoid of any sort of likability/charisma as well.
 
I agree, but there was a clear bump in the primary polls toward Trump post indictments. He probably would have won anyway, but that certainly sped the process along.
 
Hey Ron, how does a human being smile?

Ron:

9m2RZug3Nlzs3TBOME.webp


Jokes (and out of context gifs) aside, DeSantis thought that he could run the same campaigns nationwide as he did in Florida. He also tried to emulate Trump far too much, while also saying the quiet parts out loud and basically sabotaging himself every step of the way. I didn't doubt for a second that Trump would be the candidate for 2024, but I'm curious to see how the GOP will look like in 2028 and beyond. Sooner or later, they'll have to move on to someone else since Trump isn't the youngest (or healthiest) anymore.
 
We'll see what happens. Populist/cult movements are difficult to maintain when the leader dies. Add to that the facts that Trump attracts so many low propensity voters who may not remain politically engaged when he's gone and MAGA candidates have a really iffy electoral track record, I'm not really sure what the GOP will look like in 28 and beyond. DeSantis is a good example of how just being MAGA isn't enough.
 
Mosh said:
We'll see what happens. Populist/cult movements are difficult to maintain when the leader dies. Add to that the facts that Trump attracts so many low propensity voters who may not remain politically engaged when he's gone and MAGA candidates have a really iffy electoral track record, I'm not really sure what the GOP will look like in 28 and beyond. DeSantis is a good example of how just being MAGA isn't enough.
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I think Don Jr. could pull it off just through his name, and by constantly referencing his dad.
 
LooseCannon said:
No, he can't. Don Jr. has none of his dad's charisma or political skill. He's a colourless copy.
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That's quite enough, especially considering how much less of a democracy the US is turning into with say Project 2025. We have had hundreds of years of dynasties, and they aren't necessarily contingent on the inheritor of power being of the same calibre as the predecessor.
 
Yax said:
That's quite enough
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It's really not though.

Trump in 2020 received the highest vote totals of any presidential candidate in history besides Joe Biden. He started a political movement that completely realigned a major political party. He's on track to either win the presidency again in a historic election or come very close. He is a once in a generation political figure and that sort of thing is extremely hard to replicate. Putting his kid out there and expecting the same coalition to come out (and keeping in mind that this coalition includes non-MAGAs and lots of people who don't vote regularly) is a very big ask. In fact it's the same sort of assumption that arguably led to Hillary losing in 2016. I would not bet on one of Trump's sons being able to carry the torch at all.
 
Mosh said:
It's really not though.

Trump in 2020 received the highest vote totals of any presidential candidate in history besides Joe Biden. He started a political movement that completely realigned a major political party. He's on track to either win the presidency again in a historic election or come very close. He is a once in a generation political figure and that sort of thing is extremely hard to replicate. Putting his kid out there and expecting the same coalition to come out (and keeping in mind that this coalition includes non-MAGAs and lots of people who don't vote regularly) is a very big ask. In fact it's the same sort of assumption that arguably led to Hillary losing in 2016. I would not bet on one of Trump's sons being able to carry the torch at all.
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This line of argument all depends on the US remaining a functional democracy, which is not a given.
 
Yax said:
This line of argument all depends on the US remaining a functional democracy, which is not a given.
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There was something about this on 538 back in 2020, about how there wasn't a scientifically sound way of calibrating their model to account for the possibility of Trump refusing to leave office or some sort of election shenanigans that subverted the will of the voters. It's valid to consider the possibilities, but in a post-Democracy America we're kinda past the point where you can really speculate on anything because anything is truly possible.
 
Mosh said:
There was something about this on 538 back in 2020, about how there wasn't a scientifically sound way of calibrating their model to account for the possibility of Trump refusing to leave office or some sort of election shenanigans that subverted the will of the voters. It's valid to consider the possibilities, but in a post-Democracy America we're kinda past the point where you can really speculate on anything because anything is truly possible.
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At this point though, it isn't some remote possibility that Trump will prolifirate his cult by naming a successor. If there is something we've learned from despots is that they are prone to concentrate power around their families and hand it down the line. If Trump gets reelected and does what he says he will, then it's somewhat likely that Don Jr. will be handed the presidency 4-8 years down the line, or that he will be handed the nomination and wield the power of MAGA in dad's name to get elected if Trump leaves office in accordance with law (although he's already talking about doing three terms).
 
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I guess convicted felon Donald Trump wants more felonies. ProPublica just dropped an indepth investigation into the witnesses called by the Trump defense (which failed, because he was convicted on 34 counts), and it looks like he was bribing them.

www.propublica.org

Multiple Trump Witnesses Have Received Significant Financial Benefits From His Businesses, Campaign

Witnesses in the various criminal cases against the former president have gotten pay raises, new jobs and more. If any benefits were intended to influence testimony, that could be a crime.
www.propublica.org www.propublica.org
 
Yax said:
At this point though, it isn't some remote possibility that Trump will prolifirate his cult by naming a successor. If there is something we've learned from despots is that they are prone to concentrate power around their families and hand it down the line. If Trump gets reelected and does what he says he will, then it's somewhat likely that Don Jr. will be handed the presidency 4-8 years down the line, or that he will be handed the nomination and wield the power of MAGA in dad's name to get elected if Trump leaves office in accordance with law (although he's already talking about doing three terms).
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Honestly? I think MAGA only revolves around Don Sr. Don't think they give a damn about Don Jr. Hell, I don't even think Sr gives a damn about Jr.
 
Was there much discussion about Trump's comments about the public not liking it if he went to jail?

That sounded like a thinly veiled call for more Jan 6th style actions to me.
 
Didn't see much discussion, but that had the same energy as "won't someone rid me of this meddlesome priest".
 
srfc said:
Was there much discussion about Trump's comments about the public not liking it if he went to jail?

That sounded like a thinly veiled call for more Jan 6th style actions to me.
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He’s been dog-whistling calls to violence every time his back has been against the wall, so it didn’t get a lot of special discussion when he did it yet again.

I think the “I never said ‘lock her up’” line from his recent Fox interview got more attention because it’s easier to roll all the contradictory tape of him saying that over and over again from the past 8-9 years.
 
Convicted Felon Trump is now vetting VPs:

The candidates are:
Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott
Florida Rep. Byron Donalds
New York Rep. Elise Stefanik
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio
Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton
Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson

I was initially on the Kristi Noem train until she shot down ruined her VP chances recently. Since then I think the strategic thinking has changed a little bit. I was thinking that Trump would try to shore up support with suburban women and soften the abortion stuff by bringing in a woman VP, but I think polling has made a few things more apparent:

1: Voters may or may not blame Trump for abortion bans, but bringing on a woman VP is not really going to sway things one way or another.

2: Trump is showing some strength among young men and particularly young men of certain demographic groups (black men, some hispanics, for example). If Trump can chip away at Biden's numbers among these groups, he could have a really good election night. So picking a black or hispanic man as VP, or a younger male candidate in general, makes a lot of strategic sense.

3: Trump may be doing well enough that he doesn't need his VP pick to put him over the edge (i.e. Pence in 2016 to help with evangelicals).

So with that in mind, I think the top three candidates from that list are:

JD Vance
Tim Scott
Marco Rubio

I think Vance is the person Trump wants. He's all in on the craziest/most extreme elements of a second Trump term, pro insurrectionist, and appeals to the younger more online part of Trump's base.

I imagine there are people within the campaign who are pushing for Rubio/Scott as demographic picks and Trump may go that route, but they are kinda squishy and kinda weird. Vance IMO is the sort of person Trump would rather be on stage with. I also think since everybody is going to get in line behind Trump a lot easier than 2016, he really doesn't have to make any strategic considerations beyond who he just wants as VP.
 
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