Semantics. As of now he is a one term president. He would be going into that race as a former president who already failed to win a second term. That sort of perception matters and while there are certainly members of his base who will follow him to the end, there’s probably a chunk of GOP voters (and independents) who would rather see a fresh face who isn’t a loser.
This is also assuming Trump isn’t prosecuted, has a health scare, or dies before 2024.
This is also assuming Trump isn’t prosecuted, has a health scare, or dies before 2024.