USA Politics
- Thread starter Genghis Khan
- Start date
Some thoughts now that we have a projection:
Media narrative really makes a difference here and the slow trickle of results by the end probably made this race seem closer than it really was. As of now, Biden is outside the margin for an automatic recount in PA and it appears he flipped Georgia (definitely a long shot win). Someone should fact check me, but I believe this is the biggest margin in which an incumbent has been defeated.
The polls were definitely off again, which is surprising considering how much the pollsters adjusted their averages after being off in 2016. That is why my map from earlier predicted a 400 EV blowout. I was expecting that 3 to 5 point swing to favor Biden because pollsters were overestimating Trump. Turns out, somehow Trump was underestimated again. This time, that polling error wasn’t enough to save him. Which is why he had a 1/10 chance rather than a 1/4 chance.
So what’s the takeaway? Despite bungling the pandemic, a low approval rating, and a bad economy, Trump still managed to bring out 70 million voters and he managed to expand in places like Ohio and Florida (the latter of which is a pretty impressive victory). I’m not really sure what to make of that. At the same time, Trump underperformed compared to downballot republicans, which suggests that Trumpism is less popular than Conservatism- or people just want Trumpism from someone who’s less incompetent.
With that in mind, both parties are in a bit of a pickle going forward. Going into 2020, there were questions about whether Dems should try to win in the rust belt (MI, PA, WI) or the sun belt (AZ, TX, NC, GA, FL). They were kinda able to do both, but not in a way where it’s clear which is the more viable in the long term.
The blue wall is back, but I see no reason to believe that it’s any more stable than it was going into 2016. Trump proved that this was a viable path for Republicans and it was still close this year. I believe Biden’s selection during the primary process was at least in part due to the belief that he would win big in that region. Without Biden on the ticket, it might be a tall order to even win there. At the same time, was Trump’s popularity in those states unique to Trump or will that carry over to other republicans? Dems did pretty good there in 2018.
The sun belt is very slowly turning toward democrats, but it is slow. NC and Texas continue to allude Dems and it’s hard to say when those states will tilt in their favor. Trump may have won really big in Texas (5+ points) and the disappointing state level results there is going to set the state party back significantly after making gains in 2018. Florida is also a bigger margin than expected. I think we have to start putting it in the solid red column going forward.
On the other hand, Biden (probably) flipped Georgia and Arizona, which are both huge wins. It’s hard to say how much of a fluke this is, Mark Kelly and Cindy McCain were really instrumental in making these states winnable. But signs had been pointing toward a future where Democrats would be more competitive there. One thing that is notable about these southern/southwest states is that they don’t stay purple very well. Virginia was a swing state in 2016 but is now reliably blue with a Dem trifecta. Colorado and New Mexico are a similar story. It’s entirely conceivable that Georgia and Arizona will be the same, especially considering that both states have really strong Dem apparatuses. My gut reaction is that Dems should look to this region for future victories, and maybe put less resources in Florida and more in some of these states.
If you’re an establishment Republican you’re probably feeling pretty good right now. Republicans had a great night in the house, kept control of the competitive state houses (be ready for another decade of gerrymandering), and more likely than not are going to keep the Senate. Essentially, Republicans still have a lot of political power and they also don’t have to deal with the Trump problem anymore. Biden is also probably the most likely Democratic president to give concessions to a Republican congress. It’s a long shot, but I would love to see the return of bipartisanship and a more functional government.
And in true 2020 fashion, this isn’t over yet. Assuming the republicans win the uncalled senate races (I’m still holding out hope for Al Gross in Alaska!), the senate is going to be decided by two runoffs in Georgia.
This came up before the election and I said that I expect the republicans to win the runoffs if Biden wins the presidency and Dems to win if Trump wins. I still stand by that, but with much less confidence. It’s more complicated now. I wasn’t expecting a scenario where Biden wins but loses the senate. I also wasn’t expecting that particular scenario to include a Biden win in Georgia. So I could see this going one of two ways. The first is the conventional one: the republicans tend to participate more in these runoff/special elections and are also galvanized to keep the senate. Georgia is a traditionally red state and they have an advantage there. This is the most likely outcome to me.
But there’s a lot of reason to think this could easily go the other way. For one thing, Dems are going to be fired up knowing they can win in Georgia. Stacy Abrams built a great on the ground operation there and they’re running with decent candidates (I’m not sure about Ossoff, but Georgians keep voting for him in primaries so maybe they know something I don’t). The Republican candidates also aligned themselves pretty hard with Trump, especially Loeffler, which might not play well in a state where Trump lost. It’s going to be especially difficult since Trump is almost certainly not going to campaign for these folks. This will be the first test to see if Trump’s base shows up in a post-Trump world.
Media narrative really makes a difference here and the slow trickle of results by the end probably made this race seem closer than it really was. As of now, Biden is outside the margin for an automatic recount in PA and it appears he flipped Georgia (definitely a long shot win). Someone should fact check me, but I believe this is the biggest margin in which an incumbent has been defeated.
The polls were definitely off again, which is surprising considering how much the pollsters adjusted their averages after being off in 2016. That is why my map from earlier predicted a 400 EV blowout. I was expecting that 3 to 5 point swing to favor Biden because pollsters were overestimating Trump. Turns out, somehow Trump was underestimated again. This time, that polling error wasn’t enough to save him. Which is why he had a 1/10 chance rather than a 1/4 chance.
So what’s the takeaway? Despite bungling the pandemic, a low approval rating, and a bad economy, Trump still managed to bring out 70 million voters and he managed to expand in places like Ohio and Florida (the latter of which is a pretty impressive victory). I’m not really sure what to make of that. At the same time, Trump underperformed compared to downballot republicans, which suggests that Trumpism is less popular than Conservatism- or people just want Trumpism from someone who’s less incompetent.
With that in mind, both parties are in a bit of a pickle going forward. Going into 2020, there were questions about whether Dems should try to win in the rust belt (MI, PA, WI) or the sun belt (AZ, TX, NC, GA, FL). They were kinda able to do both, but not in a way where it’s clear which is the more viable in the long term.
The blue wall is back, but I see no reason to believe that it’s any more stable than it was going into 2016. Trump proved that this was a viable path for Republicans and it was still close this year. I believe Biden’s selection during the primary process was at least in part due to the belief that he would win big in that region. Without Biden on the ticket, it might be a tall order to even win there. At the same time, was Trump’s popularity in those states unique to Trump or will that carry over to other republicans? Dems did pretty good there in 2018.
The sun belt is very slowly turning toward democrats, but it is slow. NC and Texas continue to allude Dems and it’s hard to say when those states will tilt in their favor. Trump may have won really big in Texas (5+ points) and the disappointing state level results there is going to set the state party back significantly after making gains in 2018. Florida is also a bigger margin than expected. I think we have to start putting it in the solid red column going forward.
On the other hand, Biden (probably) flipped Georgia and Arizona, which are both huge wins. It’s hard to say how much of a fluke this is, Mark Kelly and Cindy McCain were really instrumental in making these states winnable. But signs had been pointing toward a future where Democrats would be more competitive there. One thing that is notable about these southern/southwest states is that they don’t stay purple very well. Virginia was a swing state in 2016 but is now reliably blue with a Dem trifecta. Colorado and New Mexico are a similar story. It’s entirely conceivable that Georgia and Arizona will be the same, especially considering that both states have really strong Dem apparatuses. My gut reaction is that Dems should look to this region for future victories, and maybe put less resources in Florida and more in some of these states.
If you’re an establishment Republican you’re probably feeling pretty good right now. Republicans had a great night in the house, kept control of the competitive state houses (be ready for another decade of gerrymandering), and more likely than not are going to keep the Senate. Essentially, Republicans still have a lot of political power and they also don’t have to deal with the Trump problem anymore. Biden is also probably the most likely Democratic president to give concessions to a Republican congress. It’s a long shot, but I would love to see the return of bipartisanship and a more functional government.
And in true 2020 fashion, this isn’t over yet. Assuming the republicans win the uncalled senate races (I’m still holding out hope for Al Gross in Alaska!), the senate is going to be decided by two runoffs in Georgia.
This came up before the election and I said that I expect the republicans to win the runoffs if Biden wins the presidency and Dems to win if Trump wins. I still stand by that, but with much less confidence. It’s more complicated now. I wasn’t expecting a scenario where Biden wins but loses the senate. I also wasn’t expecting that particular scenario to include a Biden win in Georgia. So I could see this going one of two ways. The first is the conventional one: the republicans tend to participate more in these runoff/special elections and are also galvanized to keep the senate. Georgia is a traditionally red state and they have an advantage there. This is the most likely outcome to me.
But there’s a lot of reason to think this could easily go the other way. For one thing, Dems are going to be fired up knowing they can win in Georgia. Stacy Abrams built a great on the ground operation there and they’re running with decent candidates (I’m not sure about Ossoff, but Georgians keep voting for him in primaries so maybe they know something I don’t). The Republican candidates also aligned themselves pretty hard with Trump, especially Loeffler, which might not play well in a state where Trump lost. It’s going to be especially difficult since Trump is almost certainly not going to campaign for these folks. This will be the first test to see if Trump’s base shows up in a post-Trump world.
Jer
'Til Tomorrow
There’s still a large segment of voters who convinced themselves that Trump was the flawed instrument of their god, and that Biden is the tool of Satan. How they managed to convince themselves of this when Trump is a walking counterexample to Christian values is beyond me, but there it is. These people are permanently lost to the Democrats because abortion and gay marriage are wedge issues to them, and the last four years proved they will vote for anyone who opposes those things, no matter how repugnant they are.
People who fear socialism, often because they or their ancestors came here to escape socialist or communist regimes, are also solidly anti-Democrat in the modern age because people like Bernie Sanders and AOC scare the shit out of them. Hilariously, they would rather throw their weight behind a wannabe dictator than run the risk of having socialist ideas enter the governing conversation. This was a big part of the issue in Florida, and it’s a growing issue in the Asian-American population as well. Many U.S. Chinese loved the tariffs against China and saw Trump as a strong leader willing to stand up to communism, despite his awkward silence on Hong Kong and Uighur concentration camps.
Then there’s both the subtle and overt racism behind immigration fears, which unfortunately get conflated with legitimate concerns about how we handle illegal immigration. The South Park “they took our jobs” crowd will support any populist who appears to stand up to this, and while Republicans have often given lip service to immigration fears, they were never explicitly populist until Trump took up that banner, and that’s how he took the rust belt in 2016. That said, the Democrats’ open pandering to illegal immigrants is pretty appalling, and their naked strategy of trying to get 11 million illegals a way to stay in the country so their descendants will give them a long-term voting majority is pretty fucked up. These moves by the Dems are deeply troubling to many legal immigrants who waited in line and did things the right way.
Regarding longer-term trends, people in larger cities surrounded by more types of people with different points of view naturally lean more to the left because their life experience makes them more open minded. Phoenix and Atlanta are two of the largest metro areas in the country and they continue to grow. As their populations grow, AZ and GA will inevitably turn reliably blue. The same holds for Texas, where both Houston and Dallas / Fort Worth are also among the largest metro areas in the country and growing, though it will take longer for Texas to flip. Also look to the parts of the country that are consistently losing people, as they will gradually get more conservative.
If both major parties continue to get more ideologically extreme, eventually a more centrist third party will rise and replace one of the major parties. This sort of thing has happened a few times in U.S. history, and we may be due for another realignment. Most Americans are socially liberal and fiscally moderate, but don’t agree with the rabid anti-regulation stance of the Libertarians. When the Democrats and Republicans were broader-based parties that had both liberal and conservative candidates, and had views that more closely represented local values, people could switch parties from election to election or split their votes based on whether social or economic issues were higher on their list at the time, and they weren’t necessarily getting a radically different candidate. In today’s polarized climate, most people have to hold their noses and vote for the lesser of two evils based on which particular stances from a given candidate are completely unacceptable to them. If the Democrats go over-the-top socialist as a whole, expect them to be supplanted. If the Republicans continue down this Trumpist isolationist, white-Christian-or-bust path, expect them to be replaced instead.
Another issue is lack of participation in the political process. Sane people generally don’t become political candidates here, because why would you put up with that shit? Also, many sane people aren’t engaged enough to participate in party primaries, so the psycho true believers are the ones picking the candidates out of a pool of narcissists. No wonder we get crappy results so often.
People who fear socialism, often because they or their ancestors came here to escape socialist or communist regimes, are also solidly anti-Democrat in the modern age because people like Bernie Sanders and AOC scare the shit out of them. Hilariously, they would rather throw their weight behind a wannabe dictator than run the risk of having socialist ideas enter the governing conversation. This was a big part of the issue in Florida, and it’s a growing issue in the Asian-American population as well. Many U.S. Chinese loved the tariffs against China and saw Trump as a strong leader willing to stand up to communism, despite his awkward silence on Hong Kong and Uighur concentration camps.
Then there’s both the subtle and overt racism behind immigration fears, which unfortunately get conflated with legitimate concerns about how we handle illegal immigration. The South Park “they took our jobs” crowd will support any populist who appears to stand up to this, and while Republicans have often given lip service to immigration fears, they were never explicitly populist until Trump took up that banner, and that’s how he took the rust belt in 2016. That said, the Democrats’ open pandering to illegal immigrants is pretty appalling, and their naked strategy of trying to get 11 million illegals a way to stay in the country so their descendants will give them a long-term voting majority is pretty fucked up. These moves by the Dems are deeply troubling to many legal immigrants who waited in line and did things the right way.
Regarding longer-term trends, people in larger cities surrounded by more types of people with different points of view naturally lean more to the left because their life experience makes them more open minded. Phoenix and Atlanta are two of the largest metro areas in the country and they continue to grow. As their populations grow, AZ and GA will inevitably turn reliably blue. The same holds for Texas, where both Houston and Dallas / Fort Worth are also among the largest metro areas in the country and growing, though it will take longer for Texas to flip. Also look to the parts of the country that are consistently losing people, as they will gradually get more conservative.
If both major parties continue to get more ideologically extreme, eventually a more centrist third party will rise and replace one of the major parties. This sort of thing has happened a few times in U.S. history, and we may be due for another realignment. Most Americans are socially liberal and fiscally moderate, but don’t agree with the rabid anti-regulation stance of the Libertarians. When the Democrats and Republicans were broader-based parties that had both liberal and conservative candidates, and had views that more closely represented local values, people could switch parties from election to election or split their votes based on whether social or economic issues were higher on their list at the time, and they weren’t necessarily getting a radically different candidate. In today’s polarized climate, most people have to hold their noses and vote for the lesser of two evils based on which particular stances from a given candidate are completely unacceptable to them. If the Democrats go over-the-top socialist as a whole, expect them to be supplanted. If the Republicans continue down this Trumpist isolationist, white-Christian-or-bust path, expect them to be replaced instead.
Another issue is lack of participation in the political process. Sane people generally don’t become political candidates here, because why would you put up with that shit? Also, many sane people aren’t engaged enough to participate in party primaries, so the psycho true believers are the ones picking the candidates out of a pool of narcissists. No wonder we get crappy results so often.
Dr. Eddies Wingman
Brighter than thousand_suns
Clinton vs Bush 1992?
Reagan vs Carter 1980?
Onhell
Infinite Dreamer
GhostofCain
Ancient Mariner
Although I find the long post by @Jer spot on for the most part, the moment I see the word “socialist” being associated with what the Democratic party represents I realise the huge difference in what we think is left and right in Europe and in the USA. At best, the Democratic party would be in the centre in Europe; most of the time they are at the right of centre.
Dr. Eddies Wingman
Brighter than thousand_suns
In Norway, the party closest to the US Democratic Party is the Conservative party (centre-right on a European scale). The right-wing populist Progress Party sympathize with the Republicans, but still, several prominent members have denounced Trump. Notable exceptions are the moron who nominated Trump for the Nobel peace prize - twice - and the former chairman.
<\digression>
Of course the Democratic Party has nothing to do with socialism.
<\digression>
Of course the Democratic Party has nothing to do with socialism.
GhostofCain
Ancient Mariner
The Conservative Party in the UK with David Cameron (i.e. a 21st century centre-right party) was probably the closest we have had in the UK to the Democratic Party.
That being said, people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would be considered leftwing in Europe. The fact she is seen as a communist devil in the USA speaks volumes.
GhostofCain
Ancient Mariner
I know you're not asking this earnestly (and you probably know this better than me), but in case anyone is interested in this: Trump's personality doesn't matter to the radical Evangelicals because they consider him God's tool. He is needed for God's plan to set the stage for the apocalypse to happen. According to the interpretation current among them, it is not so much a calendar date that will set the events in motion, but the correct setting. Trump is to them the guy who will put the pieces in place, e.g. by helping the Jews build their Third Temple, which is absolutely essential for the rapture to happen. They will brush away any concerns that he does not embody Christian values, because hardly any of the key Biblical characters ever did. King Cyrus was a pagan, yet he let the Jews return to Jerusalem, after all. It's absolutely logical in their world.
jazz from hell
Ancient Mariner
Joe Biden might be underestimated. He’s not the most charismatic guy, he’s old, and I have the impression he doesn’t really care that much about being in the public anymore.
But those are qualities as well, being more of a worker behind closed doors and trying his best when he’s not in the public eye, which can perhaps precisely help him to be a president to both parties.
By the way - nomen est omen! - Biden is pronounces beiden in german, meaning to both.
There’s talk about Biden perhaps pardoning Donald Trump in possible future lawsuits (tax fraud, sexual harassment,.. when he loses his presidential immunity), to reduce disturbance and noise for Biden while actually working and thinking.
But those are qualities as well, being more of a worker behind closed doors and trying his best when he’s not in the public eye, which can perhaps precisely help him to be a president to both parties.
By the way - nomen est omen! - Biden is pronounces beiden in german, meaning to both.
There’s talk about Biden perhaps pardoning Donald Trump in possible future lawsuits (tax fraud, sexual harassment,.. when he loses his presidential immunity), to reduce disturbance and noise for Biden while actually working and thinking.
Diesel 11
As you scream into the web of silence...
This may explain radical evangelicals, but not less radical Christians. That kind - who I've spent my entire life living and growing up with - simply doesn't see what's wrong with a lot of the things he says, and fall back on conservative talking points that attempt to logically make it seem okay. Sure, they'll point out that his tweets aren't great, but beyond that they like him because he by-and-large says what they all have been thinking internally, don't see him as racist (and look only at the ~10% of black Trump voters), think he's shaking up the pot, find him kind of funny (how??), and simply think he's a decent person overall. He's not Christian at all, but he isn't a Democrat, and that's incredibly important to them. For that they'll seemingly justify anything.
Jer
'Til Tomorrow
This would be a horrible mistake, just like Ford pardoning Nixon. If a criminal president is never punished for their crimes, then we are no longer a nation of laws, and we have conceded that certain people are in fact above the law in this country.
That said, I think Trump will try to pardon himself on his way out the door and the conservative SCOTUS will have to do some serious contortions to explain how the founders could have ever imagined that act to be OK. And if there’s any justice, New York state will still indict him for fraud and he’ll wind up dying in a state penitentiary, since he can’t pardon himself for state crimes.
Dr. Eddies Wingman
Brighter than thousand_suns
Like @Diesel 11, I think "rapture ready" Christians of the kind @Perun describes is too small a group to be important in elections. The bunch who thought both Clinton and Obama was the Antichrist, until their respective terms were over and the rapture didn't happen yet.. Those aren't mainstream Christians.
But i wouldn't be surprised if they're a larger percentage of US Christians compared to Christians in Europe.
But i wouldn't be surprised if they're a larger percentage of US Christians compared to Christians in Europe.
jazz from hell
Ancient Mariner
BTW: Kamala is pronounced as comma- (the punctuation mark) -la.
Her speech was great last night.
Her speech was great last night.
Dr. Eddies Wingman
Brighter than thousand_suns
Most surrealistic moments after the election?
Some good candidates:
- Giuliani's press conference in front of a gardening company in Philly, between an adult book store and a crematorium
- Trump fans - waving a "blue line" flag - dancing and singing along to Killing in the Name of
.
Others?
Some good candidates:
- Giuliani's press conference in front of a gardening company in Philly, between an adult book store and a crematorium
- Trump fans - waving a "blue line" flag - dancing and singing along to Killing in the Name of
. Others?