There is a lot of euphoria currently that I personally emphatise with. The footage of people dancing in the streets yesterday reminded me somehow of the scenes at the end of Return of the Jedi, when everybody celebrated the destruction of the Death Star and the death of the emperor. It's really tempting to consider this the end of a nightmare, as if the last four years were some terrifying fever dream that we only need to recover from. But after pondering on all of this for a while both long before the election and in the last few days, I do feel like sharing a few thoughts on the future that may spoil the party a bit, but that do concern aspects I think shouldn't be overlooked.
I'll start with the Biden side of things. Something we should know from every election (but somehow forget every time) is that the promises of the candidate are never fully transformed to the policy of the president. With Biden, the risk is that he will be a weak president. I think so, because he has neither the judiciary on his side, nor, most likely, the legislative. It is unlikely that the Republicans lose their hold on the Senate. Biden's powers will be very limited. From a constitutional point of view, I think that's actually good - if the last four years have shown us anything, it's that the executive has far too much power in the US. The presidency needs to be re-thought. However, with all the damage done by Trump that Biden needs to fix, it's really poor timing for this.
Internationally, and this is the aspect that concerns me the most, I believe Trump did far more damage than many people realise, and it will only become apparent in the next four years. The number of countries desperate for good relations with the US is shrinking, and under this pretext, who will want to negotiate with the Americans anymore? Trumps withdrawal from the Iran Deal (which was a "deal" to the US, but a treaty to most other partners), the Paris Agreement and the WHO shows that America is an unreliable international partner. Sure, Biden may offer new negotiations in good faith, but why would anyone want to join in knowing that it can all collapse again after the next American elections? This sort of trust takes generations - or in political terms, several election cycles - to rebuild. It's not Biden's fault, but it's the reality. Biden can try to begin rebuilding trustful relations with other countries, but it's up to his successors to determine whether it will work.
Looking at it from the Trump perspective, I have always said and maintain that come 20th January 2021, all the circumstances that empowered him will still be there. The alt-right is already gearing up its brains and trying to develop a narrative to deal with this situation. Being in the opposition, the circumstances are favourable to them, because the one thing they're good at is being against things. Their first attempts seem to aim at claiming Biden stole the election, but it's a trial-and-error process. They have at least until the midterms in 2022 to come up with something robust. Most likely, they will drop Trump and maybe one or two of his most useless lackeys (e.g. Giuliani) as scapegoats, because when all is said and done, Trump did lose, and they can't market a loser. Trump himself will probably keep screaming for attention but he will no longer get it and die a bitter old man, probably sooner rather than later. But somewhere, somebody is waiting in the wings, watching Trump fail and learning from his mistakes. There will be a stronger Trump by 2024 or 2028 at the latest, maybe someone we already know, maybe someone people haven't heard of yet.
I am sure that Biden and Harris will do their utmost to try and negotiate between the individual groups in America, and I believe they are sincere in their desire for reconciliation. The problem is, on the one hand the rifts in America are very strong and very deep, but on the other hand there are people in the US who knowingly intend to make it worse. There are people from the extreme right who want race riots and a civil war. Evangelical fundamentalists genuinely believe Biden and Harris are evil and decline to accept their offers; all they want is the rapture. These may be a minority, but they know how to take control of the narrative. We have seen this under Obama, and the Trump years will only have served to radicalise them. There will be bad faith opposition against Biden, and we will have to see just how strong and powerful it is. As of now, it seems like it is not powerful at all, or otherwise Biden wouldn't have been elected. But radicalisation is an irrational process that is often difficult to predict. We might forget about the Boogaloo Bois soon, but who will we be talking about in 2024?