USA Politics

I guess my math is fucked up. I keep hearing that Trump needs Georgia. That he cannot be President without it.

But if Biden wins it, he has 269. If (however unlikely) Trump wins the rest, he has more hasn't he? *scratches head*
 
If we do not assume Arizona is in the bag for Biden, the situation is as follows:

Biden will win if he gets any of these combinations:

Pennsylvania alone (takes him to 273)
Arizona + Nevada (takes him to 270, i.e. just enough)
Georgia + any other state (Georgia gets him to 269 and he needs more)
Nevada + any other state (Nevada takes him to 259, any of the remaining states gives 11 or more)

So no, Trump does not need Georgia if he gets all the other remaining states. That would make it a tie 269-269 and the Congress would decide it in favour of Trump. (Each state has the same weight and the GOP has the House majority in the most states - and that's what matters here).
 
Thanks. Looked like I was right. And CNN wrong (they do not say Arizona is in the bag).
edit: it is not wrong not saying Arizona is the back, but you know what I mean.
 
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House 226 to 209 for the Dems
Senate 48 to 47 for the Reps with 5 seats up in the air.
Nevada MAY dump some results today, yet Georgia and Arizona still too close to call
Several states have already thrown out Trump's bogus lawsuits regarding fraudulant procedures. However, recounts will occur either automatically due to state law and how close the call was and other will do it because Trump, Biden or both asked for a recount.

In short, we won't know for sure until like... Dec. 2.
 
The final margin is going to be 306 for Biden, about the same as 2016 for Trump
 
That's nice, but it's still too close and will most likely go to a court decision. Biden could end up with 293 electoral votes today, but he will still be the PROJECTED winner until courts rule
 
I’m not really seeing much evidence for that. Trump’s lawsuits are largely being dismissed and PA is turning out to not be so close (Biden might win by around 3 points). Biden will be the projected winner until the electoral college votes and the house certifies, which is always the case. The chance of a court overturning the result is very very small. SCOTUS probably doesn’t want to go anywhere near this anyway.

By the way, the Georgia win is a good example of what on the ground campaigning is capable of. I wonder how much Joe Biden’s “basement” campaign hurt him in some of the other swing states.
 
Onhell said:
That's nice, but it's still too close and will most likely go to a court decision. Biden could end up with 293 electoral votes today, but he will still be the PROJECTED winner until courts rule
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I actually don't think it will get that far in the courts.
 
Mosh said:
I’m not really seeing much evidence for that. Trump’s lawsuits are largely being dismissed and PA is turning out to not be so close (Biden might win by around 3 points). Biden will be the projected winner until the electoral college votes and the house certifies, which is always the case. The chance of a court overturning the result is very very small. SCOTUS probably doesn’t want to go anywhere near this anyway.

By the way, the Georgia win is a good example of what on the ground campaigning is capable of. I wonder how much Joe Biden’s “basement” campaign hurt him in some of the other swing states.
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The ones that aren't getting far are the ones claiming fraud. But a legitimate recount, based on percentage difference will. Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona are looking that way.

LooseCannon said:
I actually don't think it will get that far in the courts.
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I hope so.
 
It's down to about six states, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Alaska and North Carolina. All, if not most, will likely go to recounts. According to Chuck Todd from NBC the method is different in each state. One is RECANVASING, which is basically double checking the math, rather than recounting each vote again, then there is RECOUNTING, which well... exactly that, refeed the machines OR manually and however long THAT takes. Fun times ahead.
 
Recounts can change a few hundred votes, maybe a few thousand votes, but not tens of thousands or more.
 
What we'll see is that after recounts confirm a result, THEN we'll see the litigation if the margin is still small.
 
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