USA Politics

Yax said:
What was the given reason?
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No clue .. this is on NBC (from 7 hours ago) and pretty much the same story on many sites. I tried to find an explanation .. but have had no luck so far. Edit: Upshot seems no more updates until tomorrow

Officials in Nevada say they are done counting ballots until Thursday morning.
Nevada election officials say no more results will be given until noon eastern on Thursday.
Votes that still need to be counted include mail ballots received on Election Day.
Six electoral voters are up for grabs in Nevada.
As of 86 percent of the expected votes are in. As of Wednesday morning, Joe Biden is at 49.3 percent and President Trump is at 48.7 percent.
 
Combining a few posts from 538

Here’s what’s left to count in Arizona. At first glance this would seem quite bad for Trump since it’s largely mail ballots, BUT mail ballots that arrived late in the process are considerably more R by party registration than the ones that arrived earlier.

The Arizona Republic surveyed county recorders and estimates that 600,000 ballots remain to be counted in Arizona. A full 450,000 of those ballots are in Maricopa County (Phoenix) and break down as follows: 248,000 early ballots (which in Arizona includes both mail-in and in-person votes) that arrived on Monday or Tuesday, 160,000-180,000 mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day and 29,000 provisional ballots. Maricopa expects to release two batches of results tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern.

Link to the "here" part in the first post

www.azcentral.com

About 600K ballots left to count in Arizona, The Republic estimates as of 11 a.m. Wednesday

Maricopa County has 248,000 early ballots that arrived on Monday and Tuesday remaining to count, along with 10,000 provisional votes.
www.azcentral.com

My comment, if Biden wins AZ, it is huge in this election, but I am not so sure it is a trend. McCain was incredibly well liked in AZ and the animosity between him (and his family) and Trump might have made this a one time deal. Time will tell.

Edit: In any case, the call of AZ for Biden might be a bit premature ...and gives Trump a path with AZ (or NV) and PA
 
Democrats no longer have a path to the senate unless something surprising happens, but Biden is still on track to do ok. It’ll be interesting to find out how the down ballot races became so comparatively disappointing. Some of these senate candidates were running ahead of Biden in polls but the result seems to have switched. I’m guessing a lot of ticket splitting occurred, especially in Maine.

It was already unlikely, but this means no Senators are going in the Biden cabinet unless they’re from a very deep blue state. No Klobuchar, no Warren, etc. It’s not worth the risk. Doug Jones for AG also seems less likely now, but still a strong possibility. Biden is going to struggle with the cabinet.
bearfan said:
Probably the case, but ... looking at what counties have not fully reported in Nevada, there are still votes in Trump friendly areas and of the votes counted in the 2 most populous counties, Biden is not doing as well as Hillary did. Also that state seems like a poster child for the "open up the economy" message .. which is probably why Biden is not doing as well as he should in Clark County (Vegas)

Biden probably wins it, but he is only up by about 8K votes. For some reason, NV decided to take the day off from counting and will resume tomorrow .. which just seems weird (not in a conspiracy way, but in a why would you not just keep counting way)
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this is a classic “don’t assume malice for what can be explained by incompetence” situation. The way elections are run in many of the states is a joke.

Re Arizona: on one hand, Biden winning could be the result of being a centrist, reasonably well liked, and most important for long term Arizona politics, an option for McCain style neverTrump republicans. Sinema is quite conservative, Mark Kelly is probably not going to be that far to the left of Biden. There’s a lot of groundwork being laid to make AZ a reliably blue state in the vein of Colorado or New Mexico, but it might be still a few cycles before that happens.
 
Mosh said:
It was already unlikely, but this means no Senators are going in the Biden cabinet unless they’re from a very deep blue state. No Klobuchar, no Warren, etc. It’s not worth the risk.
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Tina Smith was appointed to take Al Franken’s seat, and she’s not exactly the most charismatic candidate, but she just beat Jason Lewis (a former Republican House rep from my district) by over 5 points, so I don’t think they’d be all that worried about appointing Klobuchar if they wanted to.
 
Nate Silver seems to think that, of the remaining states, Trump is only likely to win North Carolina. With Michigan appearing to be in the Biden column, Trump needs to win all of the remaining states to win.
 
Mosh said:
Nate Silver seems to think that, of the remaining states, Trump is only likely to win North Carolina. With Michigan appearing to be in the Biden column, Trump needs to win all of the remaining states to win.
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Trump might win Alaska.
 
I thought Alaska was already called, wasn’t considering it in my assessment.
 
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Reactions: Yax
Yes he will win it pretty sure. But it is the least he needs now.

edit: interesting that it takes a while for Michigan to be picked up by other media. Maybe CNN is premature on this.
 
Regardless, what I said before still stands. Even with Alaska, Trump needs to win every remaining state.
 
Forostar said:
Yes he will win it pretty sure. But it is the least he needs now.

edit: interesting that it takes a while for Michigan to be picked up by other media. Maybe CNN is premature on this.
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ABC is calling it too, I feel better about their projection (they have been very slow to call states). If we get a Georgia call by the end of the night, everyone can pack up and go home. Other states are going to take a few days.

Edit: NYT also calls Michigan.
 
Mosh said:
Regardless, what I said before still stands.
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If we include your previous post, yes it does. If we exclude it, it does not. :--P
Mosh said:
ABC is calling it too, I feel better about their projection (they have been very slow to call states). If we get a Georgia call by the end of the night, everyone can pack up and go home. Other states are going to take a few days.

Edit: NYT also calls Michigan.
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This is excellent!
 
My ideal outcome in this election was Biden as President and a GOP Senate .. I am a happy camper. That looks like the most likely outcome at this point. My next ideal would be a House switch in 2022 .. but that is real far off.

I am assuming Biden will be a 1 term President and we can do this over with ideally vastly different candidates in 2024
 
bearfan said:
My ideal outcome in this election was Biden as President and a GOP Senate .. I am a happy camper. That looks like the most likely outcome at this point. My next ideal would be a House switch in 2022 .. but that is real far off.

I am assuming Biden will be a 1 term President and we can do this over with ideally vastly different candidates in 2024
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The establishment Republicans are already distancing themselves from Trump. Biden was going to be a 1 termer anyway, but this seals the deal. I’m cautiously optimistic.
 
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