USA Politics

Did some reading

Think Biden will win 270-268
Senate essentially the same +/- 1 seat
GOP + 10 in the House
GOP +1 Governors
State Legislatures essentially the same

What is interesting is this could be the highest turnout by percentage since 1908 and the conventional wisdom has always been higher turnout is better for Dems .. that has proven not to be the case. Also the Dems vastly outspent the GOP (which is why we are not hearing complaints about "dark money", etc) Also Trump did better with Hispanics in some cases (see Starr county Texas) and slightly better with blacks. Biden did better than Hillary with men and whites.
 
Mosh said:
Senate might be too early to tell. Ultimately I think, again, the expected results will happen. Pickups in CO, AZ, and Maine (ranked choice will eventually give the win to Gideon) for a 50-50 split. Looks like we’re getting at least one runoff in Georgia. It probably goes to the Republicans, but we’ll see. It’ll be a much more consequential race than expected. I wasn’t really expecting to see a close Biden victory that included a Georgia win, but it’s looking like a strong possibility.
Click to expand...
You forgot the GOP picked up 1 seat (AL) and James is running ahead of Trump in MI and might flip that seat. I think Collins is looking pretty good, right now Gideon would need to be the 2nd choice on virtually every ballot for 3rd party candidates
 
bearfan said:
James is running ahead of Trump in MI and might flip that seat.
Click to expand...
It's only 30k votes and there's lots of Detroit left to count. Not seeing it, but could happen. Collins winning would be huge, but most of the missing votes are again, absentee which trend massively towards Gideon. I think it's gonna be 51-49 for the GOP.
 
Either way .. the blue wave ... turned out to not really exist.

My ideal scenario was Biden wins and the GOP keeps the Senate (bonus with the GOP picking up House seats). 2 years of gridlock, which beats both alternatives IMO (Trump/Biden non gridlock)

Of the non called states (looking at Reuters) ... I think Trump wins NC, GA, PA, 1 of the Maine EVs. Biden wins AZ,WI, MI, NV, 1 of NE EVs ... which ends up 270-268

Edit: Though MI and WI will be real close and there is a chance I suppose Trump wins one of those states by the narrowest of margins (like 100-ish votes)
 
bearfan said:
You forgot the GOP picked up 1 seat (AL) and James is running ahead of Trump in MI and might flip that seat. I think Collins is looking pretty good, right now Gideon would need to be the 2nd choice on virtually every ballot for 3rd party candidates
Click to expand...
I expect Peters to eventually close the gap, there’s a lot there still to be counted. Collins is looking good, we’ll see what happens.
 
Good thing Biden picked up NE-2, for a second there I was worried we were headed for a tie
 
If you want to talk about riots, hard to imagine people accepting a tiebreak for Trump in a Democratic controlled house. Most people don’t know how a tiebreak works, let alone that it’s by state delegation.
 
Brilliant. Biden goes ahead in Wisconsin AND Michigan, and Nevada, still. 95, 96% and 67% respectively, is in.
1604505220354.png
 
Last edited:
bearfan said:
Of the non called states (looking at Reuters) ... I think Trump wins NC, GA, PA, 1 of the Maine EVs. Biden wins AZ,WI, MI, NV, 1 of NE EVs ... which ends up 270-268
Click to expand...

I think this is going to be the case. Though I think Biden may actually have a better chance in GA than PA.
 
Biden campaign wants Wisconsin called. The networks are being super conservative about calls, understandably.
 
I think Biden ultimately wins in Georgia and PA. NE-2 is a pretty good bellwether for upper Midwest strength. Wisconsin severely closes off many paths to a Trump victory. He needs every state he can get, Biden has room for error. This is why the models showed a 9/10 chance.
 
If I was a betting man, I'd bet a ridiculously low amount on Trump winning Georgia, North Carolina, Alaska and Pennsylvania and Biden winning Arizona.

Nevada and Michigan could still go both ways, the difference is really small.

I'm not convinced that the correspondence votes are all going to be blue, I remember the predictions that most of the US was supposed to be blue, so I take those with a grain of salt.

Whatever the result, I guess we all are going to agree this should not be this close.
 
Whatever the result? It's seriously the only thing that counts for me.
However difficult it would get for Biden, in the Senate or elsewhere: the thought of the greatest manipulator of all times not being President anymore is a very fine one.
 
JudasMyGuide said:
I'm not convinced that the correspondence votes are all going to be blue, I remember the predictions that most of the US was supposed to be blue, so I take those with a grain of salt.
Click to expand...

They won't all be blue, but they are coming from regions that favor democrats. Now that Biden has a lead (in NV and MI) it will be extremely tough for Trump to outperform Biden by enough to make up ground in those areas.
 
Biden has more votes than Obama in 2008.

Meanwhile; Trumps still tries to lie, conspire, manipulate and divide:

1604506785979.png

Pennsylvania will probably not have a result today. 64% is counted, but more than a million to go.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top