USA Politics

They said about 100 million votes were casted early.... that's about a third of the population, many have been counting and continue to count mail-in ballots that made it in for today/early. So, I can see having decent results tonight, BUT it will take longer than usual.

In the past elections have always been... ratified, so to speak, days later once all votes were counted, but they had enough results to "call-it" the night of.
 
It's worth noting that Fox News's election desk is highly regarded by pretty much everyone in the industry, excepting Fox News hosts who are upset when they call a race for the Democrats.
 
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It's probably no surprise that at this point, nothing is clear ... and the early Trump lead in Pennsylvania and more happened, so there'll be a lot of noise when that lead narrows as mail-in votes are counted.
 
As I'm going to bed atv130am, biden 220, trump 213. Trump is giving van incomprehensible speech as usual. NBC is fact checking the shit out of him. So... That's my cue.
 
Current standing: Biden 238 vs Trump 213.

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So, if I'm correct, and if Biden is going to win Nevada and Wisconsin (he's currently "leading" in those states), then he will get at 254,
then he needs one of these states to win:

Michigan
Georgia
Pennsylvania

Michigan could be the one. Trump currently leads only 0.3 point there.

I'm really curious how much impact the late votes (by post) still can have. Are these going to be enough ?

EDIT: only 64% of excpected vote in Pennsylvania is in so this state certainly could go both ways. Trump has a 13 point lead though.
 

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If I had to bet, I would say Biden probably eeks out a really narrow win. But the Dems can forget about the Senate (with a distinct possibility of zero pickups when all is said and done), will probably lose 4-ish House seats (but keep the majority), GOP picks up one Governorship (MT, held by Dems for the past 16 years). And in ballot measure world, California voted in favor of the gig economy, against weakening prop 13, and against re-instating affirmative action. Plus weed is more legal (as are magic mushrooms in a few places).

If anything, the end to the court packing nonsense
 
It'll be a while, some states are so close you can guarantee a recount, either automatic or it can be requested (both candidates will request it) and some deadlines for the recount are Nov. 29th... it's 2000 all over again, but different.
 
It looks like it's gonna be Biden. In the remaining undeclared states it's only mail-in ballots left to be counted and they're mostly gonna be for Biden, probably enough to push him over the edge for the victory.
 
Everything remaining in mI, WI, and PA is mail voting which is expected to be heavily Democratic. The remaining votes from Georgia are from heavily democratic areas.

Looks like by the end of it Biden will win the states he was expected to win in (plus a surprise flip in Georgia and minus Florida which we can probably call a red state now). Thanks to Georgia, we may be able to call this race by the end of the day.

Trump’s “victory” speech last night was interesting. It felt very ramble-y in places, as if he was trying to convince himself that he was winning.

Senate might be too early to tell. Ultimately I think, again, the expected results will happen. Pickups in CO, AZ, and Maine (ranked choice will eventually give the win to Gideon) for a 50-50 split. Looks like we’re getting at least one runoff in Georgia. It probably goes to the Republicans, but we’ll see. It’ll be a much more consequential race than expected. I wasn’t really expecting to see a close Biden victory that included a Georgia win, but it’s looking like a strong possibility.
 
Did some reading

Think Biden will win 270-268
Senate essentially the same +/- 1 seat
GOP + 10 in the House
GOP +1 Governors
State Legislatures essentially the same

What is interesting is this could be the highest turnout by percentage since 1908 and the conventional wisdom has always been higher turnout is better for Dems .. that has proven not to be the case. Also the Dems vastly outspent the GOP (which is why we are not hearing complaints about "dark money", etc) Also Trump did better with Hispanics in some cases (see Starr county Texas) and slightly better with blacks. Biden did better than Hillary with men and whites.
 
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