USA Politics

It’s hard to see how much of a problem this is for Trump, especially since there’s no recording of him saying that and his defenders can use the lame “name the source” routine. Plus, there’s already record of him trashing veterans and his disregard for service members is pretty obvious to anyone who has paid attention the last four years (not to mention he’s a draft dodger). So I can’t really see this story changing any opinions.

On the other hand, I would be worried about getting this story in early September. It makes you wonder if other former White House employees are going to be coming out of the woodwork in the next couple months to provide more damaging stories about Trump. I
 
I think there is one area where it hurts Trump: active duty personnel, who were recently polled at favouring Biden anyway, and supporting staff. And for a group that voted for GWB in 2004 80-20, to be losing 43-36 hurts.

And a lot of active duty US military people live in Texas and Georgia.
 
We’re looking at a pretty small segment: military folks who reliably vote republican but dislike Trump enough to vote for Biden or stay home. Small but large enough that it could move the needle in a state like Georgia.

I tend to think that there isn’t really anything that could come out at this point which would change voters’ opinions on Trump. It’s why we’re seeing small numbers of undecideds and Biden consistently polling above 50% in key states (something Clinton never achieved). The good news for Trump is that he has about 45% of the vote locked in. The bad news is that extra 5% which broke for him in 2016 is less volatile this time around and appears to be favoring Biden. It would take much more than a Comey letter before the election for him to repeat his 2016 victory.
 
Well, Trump ran the table in 2016. He drew an inside straight (or perhaps even a royal flush), and he had a really good digital team pushing him in that direction, as well as the assistance of a world power to get that far, and then pretty much everything immediately after the pussy-grabbing tape was in his favour. That stuff might happen again this time but he'd still need to draw a royal flush.
 
Absolutely. The wrong lessons were learned in 2016 imo. Nobody underestimated Trump: he was a weak candidate who needed a perfect storm to eek out a win and he got it. The same is true this year.

A 3/10 chance isn’t bad odds. You might be less wise to bet on a 3/10 chance happening twice.
 
A lot can happen that can still secure Trump the vote. Some particularly strong BLM protests that are cracked down violently; a hurricane that his team chooses to care for; the announcement of a Corona vaccine being readily available (whether it's any good is irrelevant, as long as it doesn't turn out to be useless before 3rd November); Nancy Pelosi going to the hairdresser's again... remember this guy and his minions have no shame and are not afraid to be exposed as hypocrites or liars.
 
I can 100% guarantee that on or around October 30th, Trump will announce a vaccine has been developed and will be available "early next year". He'll do so in such a way that the announcement has time enough to bounce around to his followers before the election, but that fact checking will just be catching up when the polls open. The announcement will be, at best, smoke and mirrors of a trial, and more likely, will be a total and complete fabrication.
 
The hurricane suggestion is the best bet imo. If there’s a disaster in the south East, particularly Florida, and the Trump admin handles it with base level competence, things could really turn around for Trump. He had the best approval rating of his presidency at the beginning of the pandemic because, at least in the first week or two, he was acting like a normal president.

Somewhat related, Biden probably needs to prepare to win the race without Florida.
 
Mosh said:
Somewhat related, Biden probably needs to prepare to win the race without Florida.
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Arizona seems to be on board with this plan. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania look to be going blue. NC looks OK and Biden has a puncher's chance in Iowa, Georgia, and Texas. Obviously, Texas is the one he wants to win most (if he wins Texas, it's game over) but a hell of a hard state to campaign in.
 
PA looks good but it's also super fluid, if he loses PA and Florida we could be in 269 - 269 territory.

If he wins any or all of Iowa, Georgia, and Texas but still loses Florida, it will be a pretty surprising result, but it still seems plausible enough. There are some really weird possible electoral maps, and we could even see an "Obama wins Indiana" type situation where an unexpected state flips (Alaska anyone?).

I wouldn't put money on Texas going for Biden, but it's important that he's campaigning there. If he does enough to come within a few points there, it could be enough to give Dems state house wins which would have huge ramifications for Texas politics in the next decade.

edit; this goes both ways. Trump could also flip Minnesota and New Jersey
 
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Now that we're knee deep into election season and we have polls that could indicate some outcomes in November, I thought I'd put together an early electoral map. I have one with Biden winning and one with Trump winning. I'll probably update again in October and one more right before election.

If anyone else wants to try, go here: https://www.270towin.com/

electoral map biden.png
This map assumes essentially an electoral landslide, I imagine if Biden wins it will be by quite a wide margin. He doesn't pick up Texas or Iowa like many people expected, but he comes within the margin of error in those states plus Florida, Ohio, and South Carolina. He is bolstered by the military scandal (which worsens over the course of October) and the military vote gives him Georgia and almost Florida. The win in Missouri represents a surprise flip and is based on polls that show Biden within 5 points. The scenario is that Biden has some good debate performances against Trump, the military scandal gets worse over the next month, and the virus continues to wreck the economy. It also assumes that Biden is able to close the gap with voters on who they prefer with the economy (right now it's the only area where he trails Trump).
electoral map trump.png
Whereas I expect a Biden victory to be in landslide territory, Trump has to scrape a win. He's probably going to lose Michigan, which means he has to make it up elsewhere. In this map, that happens with a surprise (but very plausible) win in Minnesota. Travis got out the vote this year. It's a long election process and we don't quite know the winner on election night. All we know is that Biden had underwhelming turnout and that, once again, the election is down to Florida. However this year we have two election fiascos, with PA also being slow to name a winner. Trump eeks out a slight victory in PA which gives him the electoral college and comes in the wake of some of the deadliest protests in American history.
This map assumes that Trump is able to hold on to his lead with the economy, the government gets a better handle on the virus, and Biden fails to drive turnout. There's probably some sort of October surprise or a bad debate performance on Biden's part that also contributes to this loss.
 
Mosh said:
In this map, that happens with a surprise (but very plausible) win in Minnesota. Travis got out the vote this year.
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I’m going to disagree on plausibility. Biden is up 6 points right now, which is about +0.5 vs. a few weeks ago. Minnesota hasn’t voted Republican for president since Nixon in 1972, which is literally the longest Democratic streak in the nation, since we’re the only state who went Democratic in 1984. Hillary Clinton was a historically unlikeable candidate with everything working against her at the end of the race in 2016 and she still won by 1.5 points here. In 2016 Trump was a brash, supposedly populist wildcard who may have appealed to some of the folks who voted for Jesse Ventura back in the day, while in 2020 he’s very much a known quantity — a corrupt, rude, lying sack of shit with no empathy, which is pretty much the opposite of what most Minnesotans value.

I think you’re going to see a lot of 2016 Trump -> 2020 Biden voter migration here, as well as some 2016 Trump voters just sitting this one out. I literally don’t see any factors right now that would push middle of the road Minnesota voters in Trump’s direction. Biden would have to have a spectacular flameout to give Trump any realistic chance here.
 
Jer said:
I’m going to disagree on plausibility. Biden is up 6 points right now, which is about +0.5 vs. a few weeks ago. Minnesota hasn’t voted Republican for president since Nixon in 1972, which is literally the longest Democratic streak in the nation, since we’re the only state who went Democratic in 1984. Hillary Clinton was a historically unlikeable candidate with everything working against her at the end of the race in 2016 and she still won by 1.5 points here. In 2016 Trump was a brash, supposedly populist wildcard who may have appealed to some of the folks who voted for Jesse Ventura back in the day, while in 2020 he’s very much a known quantity — a corrupt, rude, lying sack of shit with no empathy, which is pretty much the opposite of what most Minnesotans value.

I think you’re going to see a lot of 2016 Trump -> 2020 Biden voter migration here, as well as some 2016 Trump voters just sitting this one out. I literally don’t see any factors right now that would push middle of the road Minnesota voters in Trump’s direction. Biden would have to have a spectacular flameout to give Trump any realistic chance here.
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I’ll take your word for it being a local Minnesotan, although there is evidence suggesting that the state is trending red: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/

Also, Biden’s current polling lead is narrower than either Wisconsin or Michigan.

That said I agree it’s unlikely to flip, but I wanted to have a surprise flip on both maps, rather than sticking with the most conventional prediction. I also think the Biden map; where MO flips, is more likely.

JudasMyGuide said:
https://nyti.ms/3k0wKXb

Truth? Lie? Will it hurt him? Help him? Doesn't make a difference at all?
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Probably the last thing, although COVID stories have shown to be among the few things that really damage Trump. Anything that plays into the narrative that incompetency from Trump has made the virus/economy worse will be in Biden’s favor. It’s hard to say now, but the Trump team is probably praying that Pelosi goes to the salon again soon.
 
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