Russia invades Ukraine

@Perun, it’s late here, I must go to bed, just on the conclusion.

You're not obliged to answer right away. This thread will still be here tomorrow, though whether we are depends in part on Putin.

We basically agree in the main point. The difference is that you treat the right of each country to decide its future as nearly sacred whereas I take a pragmatic approach. This is why I brought the examples of Greece and Cyprus to show that even for my interests I wouldn’t go that far in the name of those rights to provoke Cassius Beli with my neighbor, let alone a major nuclear power.

I understand why you would support a pragmatic approach, and in many cases I would agree. The problem here is that the casus belli is the very existence of Ukraine. Putin wants this country to cease to exist, and he has said so numerous times. Anything Ukraine does is a provocation for Russia. This is a situation that we cannot and must not accept.

Sure everyone has the right to poke the bear but I’m talking about consequences here. And I expect responsibility from each country. A nuclear war will affect us all, so must be careful no matter our rights (enter the example of 12 miles etc)
This is why I judge Ukraine’s behavior to constitutionally commit to joining NATO as reckless and therefore I rather support a different approach i.e. negotiations than full escalation.

As I said earlier, the constitutional amendment was passed when Ukraine was already under threat, and this was one of the only ways it could have saved itself from Russian aggression. As we saw, even this was not enough.
I hear a lot about negotiations, but I don't understand what these negotiations are supposed to be. Ukraine didn't ask for this war, but Russia invading the country and then saying Ukraine should negotiate is... you know, it doesn't make sense. As I said, Putin wants the country of Ukraine to cease to exist.
To use an analogy: If a guy points a gun at me to get my wallet, I would give it to him so he would spare my life. We could call that a negotiation. But if the guy points the gun with the sole intent to kill me, what is there to negotiate about? And that's what this is about. Putin doesn't want Crimea - he already has it - or two cities in the Donbas - else why would he have attacked Kiev? - but he wants the country of Ukraine. What is there for Ukraine to negotiate about?

If the negotiations you ask for are however between Russia and the western countries about the future of Ukraine, then you have proven my original point because this is imperialist behaviour.
 
But, as I said, you no5, judge this from inaccurate stipulations. This has never been about Ukraine joining NATO; in fact, Zelenskyj indeed vowed to never join NATO the second they launched their assault. No, as several of us have said time and time again, this is an act of imperialism where Russia's main goal is to claim territory and erase Ukraine's culture. Just read Putin's damn essay where he proclaims Ukraine to belong to Russia and its citizens to be cultural russians (in fact, even in the early 18th century Ukraine tried to form its independent nation). This is not about NATO other than it stands in the way of Russia to expand its empire either by force, by threat or by creating spheres of influence, the latter something you explicitly support. You continually refer back to it being a result of Russia being afraid of NATO, which I guess indicates Russia is doing a grand job with their global propaganda operations.
 
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So called negotiations may start only then, when russia retreats from Ukraine till 1991 borders. And if russia will not get proper defeat, the West in the future will have to face russia+China. Maybe would be wise eliminate one of them now. What is proper russia's defeat:
(Not talking about invading russia)
1. Ukraine's borders as of 1991 (incl. Donbas and Crimea)
2. russia pays reparations.
3. War criminals get what they deserve. (a la Hague trial)

Only then russia's imperial ambitions will be crushed. AND IT WILL BE SHOWN TO OTHER AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES ALL OVER THE WORLD, THAT AGGRESSION IS NOT WORTH IT. PERIOD.

just think for a moment, why China rolled out it's peace plan now? Because they are afraid of big russia's defeat. They don't say russia's army must leave Ukraine's territory. They say respecting the sovereignity - which is more blurry. And they say ceasing hostilities. They want to froze conflict permanently. And they want russia to retain it's regime and power for the future endeavours.
 
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As there are some folks in this forum/thread that are far far more intelligent in all things politics than I'll ever be: What are the odds that we are on the brink of an actual WWIII? NATO vs Russia/China (and possibly India, and other smaller countries allied with Russia? The more I read the news and connect the dots, I really really hope I'm just reading too much into things and that I don't know enough to know better.
 
Some good points by all three of you during me trying to sleep (jet lag). I need to reread some posts whenever I find the time.
Perun, regarding negotiations of course I meant between Russia -Ukraine.
Yax, for sure there’s much to discuss about your post, as a first step, I will read the essay.
And as for what Azas said. I was wondering today the same for the Chinese plan. Why now? Maybe the answer isn’t that straight fwd but it’s still a very good question.

@chaosapiant I believe in the end, logic will prevail. But we’ll get close. Not based on evidence just a gut feeling. Learn a lesson without paying the ultimate price.
 
I'd say that the world is the most dangerous it has been in since WWII, or at least since the Cuba crisis. The most probable route to a world war, from what I understand, is that of a string of escalations, where each party seeks a proportionate response to the opponents previous action, which leads to a step-by-step escalation. Signs of cool heads though is how the Chinese and the Americans handled the balloon incident. Heavy rhetoric but more chill in action. The Chinese could have opted a proportionate response after the US shot down their balloon, but they settled with rattling rhetoric instead of any sort of action.
 
Putin's article: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

A couple of reponses to it:
 
As there are some folks in this forum/thread that are far far more intelligent in all things politics than I'll ever be: What are the odds that we are on the brink of an actual WWIII? NATO vs Russia/China (and possibly India, and other smaller countries allied with Russia? The more I read the news and connect the dots, I really really hope I'm just reading too much into things and that I don't know enough to know better.
Closer than we have been since the end of the Cold War, but still not appreciably close, I think. The big outcome from the Ukraine war, for me, is that Russia is no longer a serious non-nuclear combatant. That shifts the onus to China as a spark - a Chinese invasion of Taiwan seems like the most likely flashpoint.
Obviously, if Putin decides to use a nuke, all bets are off, but I don't think he will.
 
As there are some folks in this forum/thread that are far far more intelligent in all things politics than I'll ever be: What are the odds that we are on the brink of an actual WWIII? NATO vs Russia/China (and possibly India, and other smaller countries allied with Russia? The more I read the news and connect the dots, I really really hope I'm just reading too much into things and that I don't know enough to know better.

I think we were very close to it this time last year, when it seemed like the Russians could conquer Kiev and march through Ukraine. That could have triggered all kinds of short-circuit reactions from all sides. Back then, I thought anything was possible, because as late as 23rd February I was still thinking that Putin would not be insane enough to invade Ukraine.

We are in a dangerous situation, and a large-scale Russian assault or use of nuclear weapons could still trigger a chain reaction in which things spin out of control. We shouldn't underestimate the dynamics of a sudden and total crisis. But there will be warning signs before something this big, and they're not there.
I also don't think that China has an interest in escalating things in Europe. Their recent behaviour has been concerning however, and I would agree that there are currently very dangerous tensions in East Asia.
 
One of my biggest fears, which I hate to admit, is Russia not winning this war conventionally. Because I'll believe wholeheartedly that they'll escalate and escalate until there's nothing left of anything anywhere. I want them to lose, but I want them to also accept the damn loss and work to rebuild relationships. And I don't see that happening unless there's a regime change.
 
One of my biggest fears, which I hate to admit, is Russia not winning this war conventionally. Because I'll believe wholeheartedly that they'll escalate and escalate until there's nothing left of anything anywhere. I want them to lose, but I want them to also accept the damn loss and work to rebuild relationships. And I don't see that happening unless there's a regime change.
If russia does not "win" (however they define that now), I think regime change happens internally. Whether who follows is any better is a different story.
I do think China needs to play this carefully and they understand that. On one hand, they certainly have their own ambitions, but on the other hand they do not want to see sanctions from the west which they 100% need for their export economy.
 
Sobering video to those who think that it's only putin's war and ordinary russians are mainly good. I saw many similar polling videos. russian society is very sick. Yes, younger people are much often against the war, but nonetheless. It's horrible.
They must be killed, because they don't like us anymore.

Another bizarre example is russian emigrants in Germany and other countries (Baltic states included). They live in democratic countries, have access to unbiased news, yet they march in support of putin and russia. M*****s.
 
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You have to wonder how surprised these authoritarian officials are when they try to spew their propaganda outside their own borders and get laughed at. Echoes of Trump at the U.N. here.
 
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