Russia invades Ukraine

[Azas]

After ICC Issued Arrest Warrant For putin, his options greatly diminished. Now putin becomes even more toxic to his inner circle. They understand what is all about and that it would be better to get rid of toxic material.
Now, even sanctions for russia can't be lifted up so easy. "Give us putin!"
I may be overly optimistic, but I think war comes to an end. If Ukraines counteroffensive in April-May will be successfull, putin will be finished.

 

[Perun]

Medvedev doesn't seem to think so:

Putin ally warns NATO of nuclear war if Russia is defeated in Ukraine

An ally of President Vladimir Putin warned NATO on Thursday that a defeat of Russia in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war, while the head of the Russian Orthodox Church said the world would end if the West tried to destroy Russia.

www.reuters.com

 

[Azas]

Medvedev is an alcoholic. I wonder, You really take his words seriously? (Or, maybe your post was sarcastic..)
Medvedev is a small, loud barking dog of putin. Nobody in Baltic states and in Ukraine takes him seriously. All he is doing, playing the same old game of we will nuke you. Russia threats and hopes the West will back down. No more of such games.

 

[Azas]

Is it me, or the farer to the West, the less people understand true nature of russia and it's elite. They think of them as authoritarian but politicians. Wherea's stylistically, russia today is governed by the mafia bosses. It's not even Soviet Union, which really was ideology driven beast and superpower. putin's regime is about money grab and illusion of bygone power gimmicks. In this aspect, the West is so wrong... I'll tell You, if NATO peacemakers would entered Ukraine in the beginning, war already would be over. Because, putin wants to live and to spend his money. And because he's just another Wizard of Oz, if you know what I mean...

 

[____no5]

If Ukraines counteroffensive in April-May will be successfull, putin will be finished.

Right now the situation reminds me of the Battle of Stalingrad. Ukraine is taking heavy loses in Bahkmut (upper circle), but they have a bigger pool of men to draw. Russians seem to be ultra careful to preserve their manpower. Have they used their Autumn reserves? I think in a small extend if at all.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive, which should be initiated from another point than Bahkmut (my guess is somewhere in the rectangular area, south of the lower circle) could be in deed a decisive moment in this war. If Ukraine does well in their offensive and seeing how Russia is moving reluctantly I think it will, my bet is that we'll then see Chinese systems purring in.

 

[Azas]

Right now the situation reminds me of the Battle of Stalingrad. Ukraine is taking heavy loses in Bahkmut (upper circle), but they have a bigger pool of men to draw. Russians seem to be ultra careful to preserve their manpower. Have they used their Autumn reserves? I think in a small extend if at all.

What? No, WHAT? This is as far from the truth, as it gets. In fact, it's exactly opposite. russians have no respect for their mobilised men. Ever heard of 'cannon fodder' and 'meat waves'? Infantry often attacks armed only with AK guns. Military losses of russians is way bigger than Ukrainians.

 

[____no5]

Azas, just look the encirclements on the map, I mean with this position I don’t see it very likely that Russians have more losses. Also the fact that Mr. Austin downplayed the importance of Bahkmut hints the same. Though it wasn’t my point at all.
My point was that Russian seem super reluctant-again, see the positions on the map and consider this is going on like this about a month. This exact reluctancy is what I believe will make Ukrainian offensive succeed.
Another sign that they are careful with their manpower is the way that they left Kherson, which is the opposite of what is happening now in Bahkmut. And -maybe I’m wrong- but I didn’t see the new Russian Autumn recruits be thrown to the battle, yet another sign of Russians being careful.

I’m trying to be objective, no need heating up, I laid down my arguments which I believe make sense, so I wasn’t expecting a heated reaction.

 

[Perun]

I think the truth is a bit of what both of @Azas and @____no5 are saying. Ukraine is preparing a large offensive in Bakhmut and it is preparing it well. It is highly likely in my opinion that it will be a massive Russian defeat. But I don't think this would be the end of Putin - and even if it would be, it wouldn't be the end of the war. Here's why: With the sanctions on Russia, the Russians can't sell their oil and gas to anyone but China. And China likes that, because it's super cheap and they can just have it delivered into their country without having to navigate ships through foreign maritime zones and bottlenecks. The Chinese have all the reason in the world to want this war to continue, and if that means selling arms to Russia, that's what it means. PRC will keep this war afloat for as long as they can, I am sure of that.

 

[____no5]

Ukraine is preparing a large offensive in Bakhmut and it is preparing it well.

Maybe not Bakhmut. There would be no element of surprise which they need, Russians have momentum there and Americans downplaying its importance, among others. Surely, Ukrainians want to hold or recapture it in the future but for the above reasons I don't think offensive will be in Bakhmut.
The purpose of offensive should be to cut the occupied land in two and isolate Crimea thus it makes sense to be in the rectangular area on the map not as north as Bakhmut.

The Chinese have all the reason in the world to want this war to continue, and if that means selling arms to Russia, that's what it means. PRC will keep this war afloat for as long as they can, I am sure of that.

I don't think this is correct. What's happening screws big time the Belt & Road initiative and disrupts world trade. The Chinese interests are in peace not in war. Now and pretty much ever.
In my view, China's urge is not to sell arms, but to test them in a real field. There's a huge difference. No need for a prolonged war to do that. Just an occasion.

 

[Perun]

I don't think this is correct. What's happening screws big time the Belt & Road initiative and disrupts world trade. The Chinese interests are in peace not in war. Now and pretty much ever.

And I think that PRC realises it's getting a much better deal the way it is now. Sure, one of the backbone trade routes is gone, but that's the beauty of Belt & Road, it was designed for redundancy. And the PRC strategists knew why. The way it is now, the Chinese can drop one of the land connections in exchange for exclusive and cheap access to some of the world's biggest oil and gas reserves, and the Russians are desperate to sell. Pretty sweet deal if you ask me.

 

[Azas]

Regarding China's involvement. They win either way (if russia loses, then China might get some parts of Siberia). But also it's a double edged sword for them. Let's not forget that China's trading is way bigger with the West, than with russia. I highly doubt, that China will put everything in it's bet against the West.

 

[____no5]

The way it is now, the Chinese can drop one of the land connections in exchange for exclusive and cheap access to some of the world's biggest oil and gas reserves, and the Russians are desperate to sell. Pretty sweet deal if you ask me.

But they have those now. Even if war ends tomorrow, sanctions won't. And even if sanctions were to end tomorrow again the road is opened for alternative currencies, thus again there would be lucrative Russian deals with China using RMB. And I might add India as well, using Rupees.

This is why sanctions, in my opinion, was a huge mistake. Not only now, generally the way dollar was used as political weapon when it should remain strictly neutral as the global currency it was.
It wasn't anything new, but now it became crystal clear to all the Chinas, Saudi Arabias, etc of this world that they would be the next in line, so they are trying now to escape from this dependancy.

The fact that Saudi Arabia & Iran chose this moment to repair their relations was all but coincidence. Deal which was brokered by China, by the way. Again, facts demonstrate that China is investing in peace.

 

[Perun]

But they have those now. Even if war ends tomorrow, sanctions won't. And even if sanctions were to end tomorrow again the road is opened for alternative currencies, thus again there would be lucrative Russian deals with China using RMB. And I might add India as well, using Rupees.

Yes, they have those now because of the sanctions. Before the sanctions, Russian resources were set to be sold to Germany and other countries for much higher prices.

Not only now, generally the way dollar was used as political weapon when it should remain strictly neutral as the global currency it was.

I'm not sure I really understand what you mean, but you do realise the Dollar is the currency of the United States, and its use is in no way politically neutral, right? Have you ever heard of Petrodollars?

 

[____no5]

I'm not sure I really understand what you mean, but you do realise the Dollar is the currency of the United States, and its use is in no way politically neutral, right? Have you ever heard of Petrodollars?

Sure you can't achieve absolute neutrality, but you can maintain some. The way and the speed it happened this time made it obvious for all to see.
Petrodollar is how it all started, when US decided to exit the Gold Standard. That's why I mentioned the Saudi -Iran deal. It has the potential if not the intent to be Petrodollar's tombstone.

 

[Jer]

The Chinese interests are in peace not in war. Now and pretty much ever.

…except for the fact that Xi expects to reassert control over Taiwan before he dies, and is on record saying it must happen by the 100th anniversary of the PRC in 2049. Taiwan isn’t going to take that lying down, and the moment China attacks Taiwan they will be a global pariah, throwing the tech supply chain and world trade into chaos again, and possibly starting a hot war with the U.S. and its Pacific allies, dragging in the rest of NATO through Article 5.

And prior to that, China’s “unrestricted warfare” approach of leveraging everything in sight to project their influence, be it TikTok to collect people’s facial templates through visual filters, or financial stakes in movies and professional sports teams to force content restrictions and apologies, to institutionalized stealing of IP from foreign manufacturing partners, there’s nothing particularly “peaceful” about the way they operate. Just ask the Uyghurs, or the people who have been abducted for organ harvesting while CCP members miraculously get multiple transplant operations in off-book hospitals.

Whatever happens with Russia, China will be the next one in the hot seat.

 

[Azas]

But they have those now. Even if war ends tomorrow, sanctions won't. And even if sanctions were to end tomorrow again the road is opened for alternative currencies, thus again there would be lucrative Russian deals with China using RMB. And I might add India as well, using Rupees.

This is why sanctions, in my opinion, was a huge mistake. Not only now, generally the way dollar was used as political weapon when it should remain strictly neutral as the global currency it was.

Man, You are so pro Kremlin, yet, You have no clue about it
Throw it out your current channels of information. (I think You posted someday some youtube channel, with an old man preaching, I looked what he is all about - propaganda bullshit. Not remember his name right now)
SANCTIONS DO WORK. Slowly, but they work. God bless USA and Europe for taking right stance.

 

[____no5]

Man, You are so pro Kremlin, yet, You have no clue about it
Throw it out your current channels of information. (I think You posted someday some youtube channel, with an old man preaching, I looked what he is all about - propaganda bullshit. Not remember his name right now)
SANCTIONS DO WORK. Slowly, but they work. God bless USA and Europe for taking right stance.

We are talking about two different things. You are fixed in Russia -Ukraine conflict and you are focusing on here and now. I'm looking the bigger picture and a few years ahead.
I have no doubts that sanctions work against Russia. But I have also no doubts that sanctions will work against US and the world order as we know it in the longer term. You are talking about the first thing, I'm talking about the second.

PS: The old man preaching you are referring is probably Noam Chomsky one of the biggest intellectuals of all time, widely respected in the academic community, left movement and not only.

 

[Azas]

We are talking about two different things. You are fixed in Russia -Ukraine conflict and you are focusing on here and now. I'm looking the bigger picture and a few years ahead.

If Ukraine will loose, your "bigger picture" will change dramatically, so it's the most important thing for democracy in the world right now. Period.

I have no doubts that sanctions work against Russia. But I have also no doubts that sanctions will work against US and the world order as we know it in the longer term. You are talking about the first thing, I'm talking about the second.

If you will not solve russia's problem right now, there will be bigger problems in future regardless.

PS: The old man preaching you are referring is probably Noam Chomsky one of the biggest intellectuals of all time, widely respected in the academic community, left movement and not only.

Yes, Chomsky. Intellectuals are not flawless and opinions of theirs often are wrong. In this case - Chomsky's opinion sucks big time. Just googled some of his thoughts, and here we are:

Chomsky: A Stronger NATO Is the Last Thing We Need as Russia-Ukraine War Turns 1
'Those Supplying Weapons to Ukraine Should Realize That Ukrainian Lives Aren’t the Only Ones at Risk: Everyone’s Life Is on the Line.’

Chomsky told us that it “should be clear that the (Russian) invasion of Ukraine has no (moral) justification.” He compared it to the US invasion of Iraq, seeing it as an example of “supreme international crime.” With this moral question settled, Chomsky believes that the main ‘background’ of this war, a factor that is missing in mainstream media coverage, is “NATO expansion”.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1639277457910951936

Imo, Chomsky may go to hell. He definitely trumpets pro Kremlin narrative. In other words, he's Useful Idiot.
If there would be no NATO, russians would terrorize all Eastern Europe. No, thanks.
And Your "I'm looking the bigger picture" is cynical as it gets. You are no planetary decider of the fates of other men.

 

[Azas]

Wise man, unlike scum Waters.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639252621566304256

 

[Yax]

PS: The old man preaching you are referring is probably Noam Chomsky one of the biggest intellectuals of all time, widely respected in the academic community, left movement and not only.

I like Chomsky as much as the next, but like Azas said, intellectuals don't always get it right; like Chomsky with his nativism linguistics (universal grammar theory), his big claim to fame which was disproven (some sentiments of it still carries weight though) in the 70's.