Russia invades Ukraine

[Mosh]

Speculation. You don't know what they will do. I don't know it. We've never been in such a situation before. There will undoubtedly be a response, but whether any "western" government is ready to risk a nuclear war with Russia is doubtful, and it is possible that this is what Putin is or will be banking on.

It's important to distinguish that there is also a variety of ways in which Putin could use a nuke, which in itself would have different scale of consequences. If he uses a tactical nuke outside of a major city, that is going to garner a different response from the West compared to if he obliterates Kyiv. I actually think that short of a full-on nuclear assault, NATO isn't going to escalate beyond the current protocol of sending better weapons to Ukraine. I worry about Putin's calculus on that front.

 

[Magnus]

there is also a variety of ways in which Putin could use a nuke

Anally would be spectacular.

 

[Magnus]

^ Best put in, ever.

 

[Azas]

If it is true that Germany refuses to give Leopards to Ukraine, then... I have no words. After II WW they have a chance to stand on the right side and they cowardly refuse. My bet is, country's government is very infused with ruzzia's lobbyists. They still naively hope to buy cheap gas from ruzzia after the war. It's such a shame. Rotten almost to the core
Poland is one of those who understands (all Baltic nations do!) They show true leadership. There's still hope that Germany will change it's position. Tomorrow - Rammstein meeting. USA should send 10 Abrams, then Germany will have no option.

 

[LooseCannon]

Honestly, since we've gotten to the point that tanks are being sent, I would rather see us send more than a dozen here or there. A full program to send several hundred would be best. Scholtz has basically put it back on Biden, and the US Army, I think, will be willing to move some tanks. So Biden just needs to make the call, and then the Alliance can see what they have to give.

 

[Azas]

The problem is, Germany blocks sending of Leopards. Other European countries have Leopard tanks but they must receive Germany's permission. Altough, Poland will likely do it without any permission. And rightfully so. So, for example, per 10 countries Ukraine can receive 100-200 tanks.

 

[LooseCannon]

No, I don't think Poland will send the tanks without the contractual permission. The problem is there are now three or four countries who want to do this and the Germans are pushing it back on the Americans. Which does show that reluctance that has been clear. They will eventually give in, because they always do.

 

[Azas]

Polish prime minister already said, that they will do it even without Germany's permission.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616050354235252738

 

[LooseCannon]

Is that what that says? Or did they say that at the news conference?

 

[Azas]

Is that what that says? Or did they say that at the news conference?

No, there were other tweets in which 'Poland prime minister said that they will send tanks even without Germany's permission', this tweet illustrates, that today Poland may announce it's decision.

 

[LooseCannon]

They might indeed. And that would probably mean Germany stops sending them arms.

 

[Azas]

...and if that counts... Boris Johnson said that putin will never use nuclear weapons. He knows something and is better informed? Of course. The second putin would use it, the next second he would be bombarded by UK and USA.

 

[LooseCannon]

Boris Johnson is actually an idiot, so it means nothing.

 

[Perun]

USA should send 10 Abrams, then Germany will have no option.

Actually, if you read actual news rather than Twitter, you'd know that the German chancellor declared that Leopard 2 tanks would be sent on the condition that the US will send Abrams.

Just fucking read proper media, man.

 

[Azas]

I read proper media, man. And I am very sorry, that I upset You, because your government clearly stinks.
My logic is crystal clear. I wish, hope, that USA will send those tanks, and... we will see, what Germany will do. I have doubts... they may find new excuses for not to do it.
I know this info:

you'd know that the German chancellor declared that Leopard 2 tanks would be sent on the condition that the US will send Abrams.

actually, how it contradicts what I said???????

USA should send 10 Abrams, then Germany will have no option.

Logically I clearly had in my mind this info the German chancellor declared that Leopard 2 tanks would be sent on the condition that the US will send Abrams.' And then I upturned it. Hmm, what will Germany do in that case?

And there's no need to bash Twitter. Resources I am following, are posting clear and concise information.

 

[LooseCannon]

France is apparently considering sending Leclercs as well, so I think the pressure is growing. Honestly I'd rather we send only one type of tanks, maybe two, right now we're creating multiple supply frames. Still, the idea of all five prime NATO tanks doing the thing they're supposed to do together in Ukraine has a certain poetic appeal. Regardless, it seems the time to give tanks is now.

 

[Azas]

Honestly I'd rather we send only one type of tanks, maybe two, right now we're creating multiple supply frames.

That's the root of the problem. That is exactly why, alliance is pressuring Germany to send Leopards. Those tanks are better for Ukraine than Abrams. Not so problematic maintenance, etc.

 

[Azas]

My country's Defense Minister sure knows something. We will see tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616129225752457217

 

[Perun]

actually, how it contradicts what I said???????

It is literally the exact opposite of what you said.

That's the root of the problem. That is exactly why, alliance is pressuring Germany to send Leopards. Those tanks are better for Ukraine than Abrams. Not so problematic maintenance, etc.

How many Leopards do you think Germany has at its disposal?

 

[LooseCannon]

How many Leopards do you think Germany has at its disposal?

To be fair to Azas, contractually, countries with Leopard 2 tanks cannot transfer them to other countries without the approval of Germany. IE, Canada cannot send their Leopards to Ukraine, South Africa, or East Timor without the approval of the German government.