Russia invades Ukraine

Azas said:
Ukraine officially applies for NATO membership. I hope NATO will not whine, but proudly accept Ukraine. If so, war will be over in hours.
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NATO is giving an announcement tonight at 7pm Kyiv time, so hopefully there will be a positive response.
 
Azas said:
Ukraine officially applies for NATO membership. I hope NATO will not whine, but proudly accept Ukraine. If so, war will be over in hours.
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Boroking said:
NATO is giving an announcement tonight at 7pm Kyiv time, so hopefully there will be a positive response.
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I wouldn’t get my hopes up. There’s pretty much zero chance that NATO would grant membership to a country in the middle of a hot war, let alone a hot war with the country that has the most nukes on the planet. Not only would it violate all precedent for previous NATO accessions, but it would be a de facto declaration of war against Russia, because the first time a NATO member’s soldiers were attacked by Russia it would trigger Article 5.

The only scenario where I could possibly see something like that happening would be a brokered peace with Putin where they let him have Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk in exchange for the remainder of Ukraine joining NATO. Since Ukraine is on record as saying they won’t give up that land, and Putin arguably invaded Ukraine both times to cause instability that would make Ukraine unable to join NATO, I sincerely doubt that either side would agree to such a thing.

As a result, it seems unlikely to me that Ukraine will ever be a NATO member while Putin is still alive.
 
Jer said:
The only scenario where I could possibly see something like that happening would be a brokered peace with Putin where they let him have Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk in exchange for the remainder of Ukraine joining NATO.
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This version of events also crossed my mind.
I hope NATO will surprise us this time.
 
Magnus said:
Precisely.
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One can hope that there are forces in Moscow who are now considering getting rid of Putin, based on the assumption that the logical conclusion of Putin's actions so far is a direct confrontation with NATO forces, or possibly even the n-word. If he would suffer an "accident" and others in the Kremlin could sell the lie that this was Putin's idea only, they would have a way out.

The problem is that others, who were more open towards the West in the past (like former president/PM Medvedev), have shown themselves as hard-liners, competing about who can come with the worst threats. Could they possibly make anyone believe they were really against this whole thing?
 
Has anyone followed what happened with Kadyrov? It didn’t get much attention (or the proper attention) but one day Putin promotes him as general or something and next day Kadyrov essentially throws arrows towards Russian army organization and essentially steps back.
I may miss something but I saw it as a major loss of face for Putin.
 
Though here’s the catch. He cannot fall from the window too soon, after all this public praise he received from uncle Vladimir.
 
I have read somewhere, that ~200 respublicans voted against monetary support for Ukraine.. I am not sure, if it's true, but... Let's think for a second. If respublicans will win november elections, and Trump will be in the office in 2024, the world may suddenly become a very scary place.
Yes, Biden is old, he misspeaks often, but US deep state compensates president's weaknesses. I sure hope, that US deep state will not loose it's understanding that Democracy must be defended all across the world.
I will quote some Paul Massaro tweets here:
“ 'Realists':
1. US weapons won’t help Ukraine.
2. Ok, they’ll help, but Ukraine won’t win.
3. Ok, Ukraine will win but then Russia’s defeat will become America’s problem

This sick notion that Russia’s defeat will become America’s problem is why we are slow-rolling assistance, not giving ATACMS, blocking NATO, etc. “Realists” once again have blood on their hands.
Absolutely zero accountability for the western establishment that wildly overestimated Russia and wildly underestimated Ukraine. Malpractice."
----
So far we all see, that giving weapons for Ukraine works. They defend themselves and whole East-Central Europe. If politcs would be indecisive and weak, Ukraine would no longer exist. Aggressor can only be stopped by a harsh response. Appeasement doesn't work against mafia.
----
Here comes the push. Ukrainian president office declared that they will not negotiate with putin, only with the next president. putin's inner circle has some food for thought. Without putin they have slight chance to remain in the elite. With putin, eventually they will lose everything (considering that russia is losing war)
 
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Azas said:
I have read somewhere, that ~200 respublicans voted against monetary support for Ukraine.. I am not sure, if it's true, but... Let's think for a second. If respublicans will win november elections, and Trump will be in the office in 2024, the world may suddenly become a very scary place.
Yes, Biden is old, he misspeaks often, but US deep state compensates president's weaknesses. I sure hope, that US deep state will not loose it's understanding that Democracy must be defended all across the world.
I will quote some Paul Massaro tweets here:
“ 'Realists':
1. US weapons won’t help Ukraine.
2. Ok, they’ll help, but Ukraine won’t win.
3. Ok, Ukraine will win but then Russia’s defeat will become America’s problem

This sick notion that Russia’s defeat will become America’s problem is why we are slow-rolling assistance, not giving ATACMS, blocking NATO, etc. “Realists” once again have blood on their hands.
Absolutely zero accountability for the western establishment that wildly overestimated Russia and wildly underestimated Ukraine. Malpractice."
----
So far we all see, that giving weapons for Ukraine works. They defend themselves and whole East-Central Europe. If politcs would be indecisive and weak, Ukraine would no longer exist. Aggressor can only be stopped by a harsh response. Appeasement doesn't work against mafia.
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The thing is, it was a vote on general fiscal spending, with some Ukranian aid baked into it. That's why most of them voted no, same as they always do when it's a large budget bill. They have overwhelmingly supported the Ukraine aid bills throughout.
 
Yax said:
The thing is, it was a vote on general fiscal spending, with some Ukranian aid baked into it. That's why most of them voted no, same as they always do when it's a large budget bill. They have overwhelmingly supported the Ukraine aid bills throughout.
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Huh, thanks for clarification. In this case all is well, considering circumstances.
 
TheMercenary said:
www.sudouest.fr

Si la Russie préparait une attaque nucléaire, les États-Unis le sauraient, disent les experts

Les États-Unis seraient très probablement au courant de préparatifs russes pour une attaque nucléaire contre l’Ukraine, et Moscou pourrait aussi vouloir que cela se sache, estiment des experts
www.sudouest.fr www.sudouest.fr
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English translated link for non-Francophones (the preview is still in French, but the link isn’t):
www-sudouest-fr.translate.goog

Si la Russie préparait une attaque nucléaire, les États-Unis le sauraient, disent les experts

Les États-Unis seraient très probablement au courant de préparatifs russes pour une attaque nucléaire contre l’Ukraine, et Moscou pourrait aussi vouloir que cela se sache, estiment des experts
www-sudouest-fr.translate.goog www-sudouest-fr.translate.goog
 
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