Russia invades Ukraine

I was watching an astonishingly candid political talk show this morning after which a question has been echoing in my head.
Disregarding the questions what it would take to get this far, and how likely it really is, suppose there really was a nuclear strike on Ukraine - or, for an alternate thought experiment, on a NATO country - what then?
 
I was watching an astonishingly candid political talk show this morning after which a question has been echoing in my head.
Disregarding the questions what it would take to get this far, and how likely it really is, suppose there really was a nuclear strike on Ukraine - or, for an alternate thought experiment, on a NATO country - what then?
I listened to an interview with Christo Grozev (famous journalist). He has many insiders in Putin's circle. He said there's speculation that Putin may use tactical nuke not on Ukraine, but on one of NATO countries. To prove that he's serious and powerful. And Christo mentioned that it may be Poland. (I think russia would attack NATO infastructure there)
If Putin will use tactical nuke, imo, NATO must to bombard one of russian bases. If NATO will not answer, that will be the end for Eastern Europe countries for sure and the world as we know it. Putin is a dictator. He will stop or will be stopped, when he will see BIG POWER ANSWER, not democratic talks, etc. In this respect, I think it is very bad for Biden and Stoltenberg to say that NATO will not go to war with Russia. By such saying, they encourage Putin to destroy Ukraine further. For now NATO looks weak. Avoiding war will not necessarily prevent it. It may be opposite. Personally, I think closing the sky would drastically change the situation. russia would not use any nuclear weapons but would start whining at the diplomatic level.
Regarding Putin's style and thinking, please read Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63 on Twitter. Example:
 
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That talk show I was watching earlier had a Ukrainian journalist who said that he in turn had been watching Russian talk shows in recent years in which Russian military personnel was openly discussing exactly what is happening now, and that nobody took that seriously. He also said there was open talk of a nuclear strike on Warsaw. The whole round was silent for a few moments after that, and I've been feeling sick all day since.
 
Both sides are threading the fine line at the moment IMO. Sadly, Ukraine has paid the highest price. However, I doubt that either side wants to enter WW3. Simply because nobody knows what China's stance is. If Putin walks on Nato turf without Chinese backing, he gets anhilated in a matter of days. If NATO backs Ukraine and China backs Russia, we enter a war like we have never seen before.

So, while it's depressing to watch Ukrainian people suffer, I somehow understand West's stance. Try to cut Russia off without provoking a worldwide conflict. But at the moment it still seems like China wants to make no enemies out of this.

Hopefully the talks are successful.
 
Seeing this level of unity among the west and a willingness to drop unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia for trying to topple a democracy had to be a wake-up call for Xi. If China faced these sorts of sanctions, their middle class would implode in months and he'd have a serious problem. He's probably kicking himself for not invading Taiwan at the same time that Putin invaded Ukraine, and then using that as leverage to get the west to let Taiwan go in exchange for his cooperation in sanctioning Putin. If he invades Taiwan after this, he's getting a good look at what his own country would face in response.

Also, seeing what happened to Ukraine after they agreed to denuclearize is yet another example of why it's in the interest of any non-NATO country to get nuclear weapons as soon as possible and refuse to give them up. Over and over again we see that this is the only insurance policy that actually works against oppression by larger world powers, be it Russia, China, or NATO. Sad but true.
 
Seeing this level of unity among the west and a willingness to drop unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia for trying to topple a democracy had to be a wake-up call for Xi. If China faced these sorts of sanctions, their middle class would implode in months and he'd have a serious problem. He's probably kicking himself for not invading Taiwan at the same time that Putin invaded Ukraine, and then using that as leverage to get the west to let Taiwan go in exchange for his cooperation in sanctioning Putin. If he invades Taiwan after this, he's getting a good look at what his own country would face in response.

Also, seeing what happened to Ukraine after they agreed to denuclearize is yet another example of why it's in the interest of any non-NATO country to get nuclear weapons as soon as possible and refuse to give them up. Over and over again we see that this is the only insurance policy that actually works against oppression by larger world powers, be it Russia, China, or NATO. Sad but true.
I think Xi is not stupid. If China invaded Taiwan at the same time, the West could see both Russia in China in the same vein. And I agree, China just recently developed a middle class and yeah, it would implode. So I think that was a very smart decision.

China can't survive without trades with the west... Yet. And the opportunity to help rebuild after the war and expand ito Europe via Ukraine is very tempting for Xi at the moment IMO, because he knows that he could get something back for that. China has the infrastructure to pump gas, while Ukraine has large pockets of it. Also lots of fertile land... So, by playing natural and helping rebuild, China can gain more than most realize at the moment.
 
Both sides are threading the fine line at the moment IMO. Sadly, Ukraine has paid the highest price. However, I doubt that either side wants to enter WW3. Simply because nobody knows what China's stance is. If Putin walks on Nato turf without Chinese backing, he gets anhilated in a matter of days. If NATO backs Ukraine and China backs Russia, we enter a war like we have never seen before.

So, while it's depressing to watch Ukrainian people suffer, I somehow understand West's stance. Try to cut Russia off without provoking a worldwide conflict. But at the moment it still seems like China wants to make no enemies out of this.

Hopefully the talks are successful.
China won't back Russia. Their entire economy depends on trade with the west.
 
China won't back Russia. Their entire economy depends on trade with the west.
I wouldn't be that certain. The west is weakened by the economic action against Russia. Can the west fight two economic wars, simultaneously? I'm not arguing China will, but I think it's a bit jaded at this point and they have demonstrated they are supportive of Russia. A Russia that's indebted to China and under its thumb is a good partner for China in reaching its main objective to become the sole super power. That trumps short term goals.
 
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If China faced these sorts of sanctions,

China cannot face these sorts of sanctions in 2022 because World cannot afford to impose them. This country is the factory of the World right now thus the World needs to find a Plan B & C first, before being ready for anything like this. We might reach there eventually but it will take years. Not one or two, close to decade at best.

China won't back Russia. Their entire economy depends on trade with the west.

Also West's economy relies heavily on China. Things aren't as "simple" as with Russia.

What Putin did was either madness or at best extremely risky.
In China politics and dynamics are quite different than Russia's, despite what people may think.
What has been achieved in this country, is the result of long term planning that goes back to 70s and the work of many leaders and not just one. The CCP is something real and it does have foundations, structure and power. What I want to say it's that there's a rigid political system. With some sort of checks and balances. It's not a one man's show. It wouldn't go that far if it was.
To conclude, for its magnitude, this is a very peaceful country. They navigate very carefully & quite respectfully in the foreign affairs. There are no coups, or any kind of military or any intervention to achieve influence. Thus I don't expect them to do anything even remotely stupid anytime soon.

I understand people are biased about it, but just count how many wars /coups West started /backed the last 100 years and how many China did and you may see that it's not that bad after all. Or the last 20.
 
Protester with 'No War' sign has walked onto Russian state TV set yesterday during evening news:
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She‘s already arrested and apparently has to face years of prison.
 
China cannot face these sorts of sanctions in 2022 because World cannot afford to impose them. This country is the factory of the World right now thus the World needs to find a Plan B & C first, before being ready for anything like this. We might reach there eventually but it will take years. Not one or two, close to decade at best.
You are correct that it would be extremely painful for the west to impose these sorts of sanctions on China, grinding some industries to a halt temporarily. Far worse than doing it to Russia. But baby steps are already being taken to start weaning ourselves off of China's teat, through funding of domestic chip fabrication facilities and the movement of a fair amount of manufacturing from China to Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and other countries that has already happened to avoid the tariffs of the past few years.

If the west was put in a position where it had to sanction China severely, that could become the engine of a mass pullout. Plans B and C don't necessarily have to be in place already for that to happen, though it would obviously be far more painful if they weren't.

The CCP is something real and it does have foundations, structure and power. What I want to say it's that there's a rigid political system. With some sort of checks and balances. It's not a one man's show. It wouldn't go that far if it was.
But hasn't Xi consolidated power more completely than any other modern Chinese leader since Mao? What serious challenge would he face from within his own party at this point?

To conclude, for its magnitude, this is a very peaceful country. They navigate very carefully & quite respectfully in the foreign affairs.
By stealing IP left and right, requiring foreign companies to partner with local companies influenced by the CCP that have >50% stake in the outcome, offering to build ports in Africa and south Asia and pump business there in the short term, then pull the rug out from under them so they can default on the loan and China gets a free military base in return? By infiltrating Europe's cellular infrastructure so they have another vector to exploit for surveillance and cyber warfare in the future? By making huge financial investments in foreign ventures and then using that leverage to force foreigners to censor ideas the CCP doesn't like and apologize for making statements the CCP doesn't agree with? Sorry, your comment reeks of propaganda.

There are no coups, or any kind of military or any intervention to achieve influence.
What would you call reneging on Hong Kong's Basic Law over two decades early? The rope-a-dope strategy with foreign ports? The institutionalization of IP theft that gets repurposed into their own military? The institutionalization of mass surveillance, including data from foreign sources? They may not be firing guns on a regular basis, but they're doing everything else. Not to mention the war they're fighting against their own ethnic minorities, their condoning and possible participation in the human organ trade, and other lovely moral victories.

I understand people are biased about it, but just count how many wars /coups West started /backed the last 100 years and how many China did and you may see that it's not that bad after all. Or the last 20.
I'll gladly put the west's last 100 years up against China's any day of the week on who's improved the quality of life for humanity overall.

Sorry, I didn't mean to derail the topic.
 
Zelenskyy addressed the Canadian Parliament today with a very passionate speech, asking for weapons, non-lethal aid, and for a NATO no-fly zone. Obviously we can't do the latter, but the others, I suspect he will get.

Also hearing rumours that Finland and Sweden are considering moving towards NATO alliance in sync, to ensure no laggardness. Have to imagine that the joining process would be sped up rapidly for those two countries.
 
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