Russia invades Ukraine

After seeing russian army equipment, I think, their nukes are few and rusty. And putin can not launch nuke alone by himself. He will be stopped. But... this war opened eyes of USA, China and other countries. Russian Bear Medved's nails and fangs are shabby and broken. Le Roi est nu. The King is naked.
Regarding China... China sees unification of Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia and USA against The Threat. That's good for us and bad for China.
 
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I think Russia has been exposed a bit as a paper tiger. They still obviously have nukes and a ton of equipment, but I think we should be hearing an end of "where will Russia go next" .. They moved 3 km in 24 hours in Ukraine.

State of the Union is tomorrow, I suspect Biden will announce some more measures in the speech. I certainly hope so.
 
Zare said:
I'm unable to answer that question, because you imply something I believe to be factually incorrect.
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I don't understand this answer, as I commented on your response to Perun's very hypothetical question. Where he specifically mentioned them dropping a nuke.

I mean, if the factually incorrect thing is "Russia being willing to nuke their neighbours", then I agree, I can't see Putin being mad enough to do that, but it was the issue raised by Perun.

If you meant something else I've got to ask you to clarify as I probably need to be spoon-fed. I am very tired today and might be missing something obvious.
 
bearfan said:
I think Russia has been exposed a bit as a paper tiger. They still obviously have nukes and a ton of equipment, but I think we should be hearing an end of "where will Russia go next" .. They moved 3 km in 24 hours in Ukraine.

State of the Union is tomorrow, I suspect Biden will announce some more measures in the speech. I certainly hope so.
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Conversations I've (American) had with my friends (also American) this week have been "You know, for a supposed big bad army, they really kind of suck, don't they?"
 
Flaming Blimp Crash said:
Conversations I've (American) had with my friends (also American) this week have been "You know, for a supposed big bad army, they really kind of suck, don't they?"
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Yeah ... that is kinda what the news is saying ... massive logistic problems being at the forefront. I want to take nothing away from the Ukrainian Army who have no doubt been fighting bravely (and citizens in general either actively participating or supporting the army) .. but the Russians have always really depended on sheer numbers moreso than precision and that is really showing up here
 
Dr. Eddies Wingman said:
I don't understand this answer, as I commented on your response to Perun's very hypothetical question. Where he specifically mentioned them dropping a nuke.

I mean, if the factually incorrect thing is "Russia being willing to nuke their neighbours", then I agree, I can't see Putin being mad enough to do that, but it was the issue raised by Perun.

If you meant something else I've got to ask you to clarify as I probably need to be spoon-fed. I am very tired today and might be missing something obvious.
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No you got me correctly.
 
bearfan said:
Yeah ... that is kinda what the news is saying ... massive logistic problems being at the forefront. I want to take nothing away from the Ukrainian Army who have no doubt been fighting bravely (and citizens in general either actively participating or supporting the army) .. but the Russians have always really depended on sheer numbers moreso than precision and that is really showing up here
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After a few years of war, the Russians usually get their shit together. The Soviet Army of 1944 was a certified killing machine, a champion of logistics and mobile warfare. But it took three years and millions of lives for them to get it going. They never got there in 1917, but they were pretty damn lethal in 1814. However, the corruption present in the Russian military is rife, and there's no doubt in my mind that it's a very inefficient organization.

Compare to the Ukrainian military, which has been training for years under NATO advisors and has the advantage of fighting on home turf. They're doing very well, even if they will lose a land war eventually.
 
bearfan said:
Yeah ... that is kinda what the news is saying ... massive logistic problems being at the forefront. I want to take nothing away from the Ukrainian Army who have no doubt been fighting bravely (and citizens in general either actively participating or supporting the army) .. but the Russians have always really depended on sheer numbers moreso than precision and that is really showing up here
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Beware that this can be anything.
First it could be that Putin was delusional in thinking they'll accept them open arms so he sent in the shit gear for decommissioning and poor children. Maybe more real is to think that these were 'scouts' without delusion on Russian regime's part.

Second Russians might not be advancing very hard before they destroy the back infrastructure of the Ukrainian Army in the battlezone via missile and rocket strikes.

Third it is highly likely this invasion and war is very unpopular throughout the brass so main military assets are still inactive. Western analysts presumed 40% of all capacity has been fully modernized. I haven't seen any "modern" piece of gear destroyed.
 
LooseCannon said:
They're doing very well, even if they will lose a land war eventually.
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The "eventually" might not come at all. See my post above to Bearfan, I believe Putney either keeps illusion of this war as some sort of police action or risks mutiny.

The illusion is a joke but no actual damage is done to the main conventional assets of the Russians.
If Ukrainians stop this initial phase it all depends on the mood back in Kremlin. It might cockblock them for foreseeable future.

I know quite a lot about the state of their military programs. They're mighty, but still kind of half arsed. They had to choose what systems they push and what stands aside because they didn't have $ for both. They highly, highly prioritized the deterrents.
 
I do think this time they do not have years. Unlike previous incursions in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, etc I do not think the West will just accept this and throw up some generally toothless sanctions. I do not think the Russian people or Oligarchs will be thrilled going back to Soviet style economic isolation
 
Just found this line on Wiki in an article on the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election:

Some of Zelensky's critics[133] have expressed concerns over his close ties with billionaire oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi, doubting whether Zelensky will be able to stand up against the country's influential oligarchs and the Russian President Vladimir Putin.[132]

Well, I think the doubt has been removed.
 
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Iggy Pop and Green Day canceled their concerts in russia. Maiden, I'm waiting. So far, I don't like silence in Maiden Towers. There's a song named Clansman (and many more) you know... Act. Maybe some forum members have access to Maiden camp, please tell them, their reputation is at stake. This whole situation is no Joke.
Judas Priest same thing applies to you.
 
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Under semi normal circumstances I would have said they are unrelated matters. But I agree, cultural boycott of Russia.
 
There is no scenario in which Russia will win. Even a military victory will not make the West forget. It is also a matter of time when the influential Russians start asking themselves whether Putin is worth the cost of the country. Even in my country, thanks to his actions, people who have so far quarreled began to work together to help Ukraine by looking for accommodation for families who flee from fighting regions, collecting medicines for them, etc.
 
As far as I know, the Americans still don't think a nuclear strike is likely. If they were, they'd be degrading DEFCON status and militaries around the world would be standing up. Putin knows that as long as he doesn't leave Ukraine's boundaries NATO will not militarily oppose him, but I suspect he has vastly underestimated the ability of the west to wage financial war; he has underestimated the level of global integration in financial markets that has occurred. And, once this is over, his instinct may very well be to separate Russia from the global financial order, something that will cause more dissent amongst the oligarchs. This is really a huge blunder in so many ways, and yet, he persists in invading Ukraine.
 
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