Official Football Thread

As usual Manchester United get the easiest possible draw.

Like Real Madrid last year? Were Marseille really the easiest possible in 2011? FC Copenhagen, anyone? Or Milan in 2010? Inter in 2009? Lyon in 2008?

I'll admit Lille in 2007 was a fairly easy draw, considering that both the Spanish big guns were possible opponents. But all the seasons since then I think there have been easier opponents than the one United have got.

An easy opponent this time (compared to the other possible opponents) seems just right :D
 
Not this year though. A group of Leverkusen, Shakhtar and Real Sociedad was open to everything and United made it through. Their group last year was a piece of cake though, Galatasaray, Braga and Cluj.
 
Like Real Madrid last year? Were Marseille really the easiest possible in 2011? FC Copenhagen, anyone? Or Milan in 2010? Inter in 2009? Lyon in 2008?

I'll admit Lille in 2007 was a fairly easy draw, considering that both the Spanish big guns were possible opponents. But all the seasons since then I think there have been easier opponents than the one United have got.

An easy opponent this time (compared to the other possible opponents) seems just right :D
Yes Man U got the easiest group and I am angry. As a gunner I wanted to draw United. I know a lot of you will laugh at say for what to see Arsenal get eliminated by Man U? Doesn't matter I'll take the risk for the chance of eliminating the red devils
 
Yes Man U got the easiest group and I am angry. As a gunner I wanted to draw United. I know a lot of you will laugh at say for what to see Arsenal get eliminated by Man U? Doesn't matter I'll take the risk for the chance of eliminating the red devils

Watch your blood pressure, young man.

PS: Are you not aware that teams from the same country cannot be drawn against each other in the 1/8 finals?
 
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Their groups are usually super-easy.

Let's look at it analytically. I took a brief look at all group stage draws back to 1994 when United first managed to qualify for the tournament. I checked, for each team in the group, how that team was ranked relative to the other teams in that pot (remember - the group stage draw is made by dividing the 32 teams into four pots based on their UEFA ranking). I could only find ranking data back to the 2001-02 draw, so I haven't calculated further back.

Each team will have a ranking from 1 to 8 where 1 means they were ranked as the strongest team in their pot. For example, this year Atletico Madrid was ranked number 1 in pot 2, and were the hardest team United could have drawn from that group. Juventus was number 8 and according to the ranking, the weakest team from pot 2. But there you go.

The average number for all groups will of course be 4.5 as this is the average of the whole numbers from 1 to 8. The average for United's group draws since 2001-02 (i.e. 13 seasons) was 5.51, that is, easier than average. I wouldn't agree to it being super-easy, but it could have been much worse.

Conclusion: The numbers give some, but not clear, support to your claim. In 5 of 13 seasons, the average strength of the opponents has been 5 or harder, 4 out of 13 have averaged 6 or easier.

I'll leave it to someone else to work out a similar statistic for other clubs :D
 
I'm taking UEFA ranking and coefficient seriously. Copenhagen and Olympiakos have a higher coefficient than Napoli. The Portuguese teams have a higher coefficient than Manchester City and Schalke are ranked higher than Dortmund. The system rewards consistent appearance and performance in European competitions over a number of years but last year Borussia Dortmund were the second best team in Europe yet were seeded in pot 3. The statistics don't matter for this.
 
I agree that the UEFA coefficients don't tell the whole story. But when it comes to being lucky/unlucky with the draw, you can only look at the relative strength of the teams in each pot. And you must surely agree that over several seasons, looking at the numbers is better than just assuming?

What I mean is: The UEFA coefficients don't say it all, but they are our best shot at saying something objectively about how hard the draw is.
 
It gives you a quantitative method of the strength of a team, but not an accurate one. I'd rather analyse a team's strength qualitatively but then that's subjective and we'll never agree. :P
 
If you come with claims like "usually get super easy groups" you should be willing to look at a slightly bigger picture than your own opinion on this season and the previous one :D

But OK. Which criteria would you use to analyze the strength of many teams qualitatively? Consider that you're not watching many of the teams play.
 
I said many teams. Like, all the different teams in pot 4 of the draw.

It doesn't take much thinking to say that Man City and Borussia Dortmund were the strongest teams in pot 3 of this season's draw. But how do you judge between Shakhtar Donetsk, Marseille and CSKA Moscow? Or between Ajax and Galatasaray? Or Napoli and Real Sociedad? You don't watch them often, they rarely play against each other, ,so all you have to go by is their league position (and of course the perceived strangth of the league they play in) and their performances in Europe.

If you want to build an argument to support your view, you are better off basing it on objective facts. Subjective criteria are easily fitted to any opinion. In the extreme, you'll have people stating that Bayer Leverkusen have to be crap because they were drawn in Man United's group, based on the "fact" that United always get easy groups. You are not in that category, but you do open a can of worms if you let a subjective assessment of the quality of a load of players you don't watch weekly be your main way of telling the strength of teams.

My point is: If you come up with concrete claims (e.g. "Their groups are usually super-easy"), you should also have something concrete to back them up with.

Based on my little research earlier today, I'm ready to admit that United have had some quite easy groups over the last 15 years. Not that it has always looked easy when the games have been played :innocent:
 
Obviously you don't watch it enough.

They were close to winning the title in 2002/03 I think. Kovačević, Nihat and Xabi Alonso were in that team.
 
a team from a decade ago? that's relevant?
Good 3 players you just mentioned
but early 2000's la liga I think of Madrid's los galacticos aka the galactics, Barcelona, Valencia&Villareal but real sociedad nope can't muster up much memories from their team back then.
 
How in the hell did Real Sociedad get into the champions league?

By finishing 4th in the Spanish premier division in the 2012-13 season, and subsequently beating Lyon in the last round of qualifiers. See, it's not that complicated! They got in through the exact same route as your beloved Arsenal (who finished 4th in the Premier League and entered in the last qualification round).
 
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