Coronavirus

Brigantium said:
The Oxford/Astra zeneca developers did their own announcement today. They class it as 90% effective based on the testing trials, but it's two doses now (or one and half, for some reason) rather than being a planned single dose vaccine. So the Government probably hasn't bought enough of that one after all.
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I would urge caution and not get too over-excited about the Oxford vaccine yet:

www.theguardian.com

Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to undergo new global trial

Share price drops as critics question claim vaccine could protect up to 90% of people
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

I am sure Boris Johnson creamed his pants when he heard those figures from something developed at his alma mater, but there is always a risk of some people potentially not doing proper science to get there first.
 
The_7th_one said:
Are Pharmaceutical companies playing dirty? Should we trust them?
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One pharmaceutical company rushed to conclusions. It was quite easily noticed and corrected. That's how the system is supposed to work.

Multiple major national & supranational health organizations are carefully watching the development of vaccines, and the FDA, EMA, Health Canada, and the Japanese FMDA are all deep into the weeds on what needs to happen here.
 
GhostofCain said:
I would urge caution and not get too over-excited about the Oxford vaccine yet:

www.theguardian.com

Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to undergo new global trial

Share price drops as critics question claim vaccine could protect up to 90% of people
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

I am sure Boris Johnson creamed his pants when he heard those figures from something developed at his alma mater, but there is always a risk of some people potentially not doing proper science to get there first.
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Face it, that's the vaccine you're most likely to be offered in the UK, even if you'd prefer another one. They signed up for a lot of it.

I don't particularly think they didn't do the proper science with this, have cut corners with testing, or that any of the most-scrutinised companies are faking it, but gauging effectiveness has so many variables that it's very hard to tell until huge numbers of people have had it and subsequently been exposed to the virus. More than 80% is considered very effective. Apparently a seasonal flu vaccine is only expected to be about 60% effective on average, and that'll vary based your age group anyway.

I'm still not sure if I caught swine flu a few months after the jab for that. I was definitely floored by something flulike, and a couple of work colleagues were hospitalised with swine flu at the time. Luckily it only went on for a week, and the worst coughing fits only lasted for a couple of days. One morning I was suddenly completely better. At the time I was led to believe by a doctor that I couldn't possibly have had swine flu after having the vaccine, but that's really not the case. Let's just say, if that that jab offered some protection, I wouldn't have liked to have seen what would have happened if I hadn't had the jab. One friend wasn't so lucky, and after several months in hospital, was left with multiple disabilities.
 
Brigantium said:
I don't particularly think they didn't do the proper science with this, have cut corners with testing, or that any of the most-scrutinised companies are faking it, but gauging effectiveness has so many variables that it's very hard to tell until huge numbers of people have had it and subsequently been exposed to the virus. More than 80% is considered very effective. Apparently a seasonal flu vaccine is only expected to be about 60% effective on average, and that'll vary based your age group anyway.
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One of the reasons why mRNA vaccines were under development (the type of vaccine used in Moderna and Pfizer's vaccine) was to provide a far more active defense against the flu and get away from strain-based vaccines which are never fully effective. If COVID had come along 10 years ago, that research would have been a lot further away from prime time.
 
LooseCannon said:
One of the reasons why mRNA vaccines were under development (the type of vaccine used in Moderna and Pfizer's vaccine) was to provide a far more active defense against the flu and get away from strain-based vaccines which are never fully effective. If COVID had come along 10 years ago, that research would have been a lot further away from prime time.
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Important point. The work on vaccines for covid-19 didn't start from scratch, the technology wasn't conceived in january 2020.

In fact, if I try to take an optimistic view here, the effort taken this year may very well have advanced the mRNA vaccine technology to the level where it can be used on shorter notice for other viruses.
 
^This. With the pressure of the pandemic, and the goal of guaranteed profit, the technology and the final bit of research needed to get approval has taken a great step forward
 
mRNA vaccines for the flu could have huge impacts, as well as the ability to combat future coronavirus strains.
 
Lockdown till 4th January. Then 2 weeks of winter holidays for all schools.

In Poland, we have a big drop down in the positive results of the sample tests. One day we had over 55% positive samples daily, next day - ~30%. At the same moment, the government told that they found over 20 000 positive test results but they don't know when they were created so they will add them to total # of cases but not to the daily cases (because that would mean that we need to go into full lockdown). Many people think that this was done on purpose to avoid lockdown. At the same time, People with symptoms avoid testing because they can lose jobs. So it's safe to say that in Poland we don't know the real scale of the epidemic and the government is playing with numbers.

Also - we now have daily around 500 deaths related to Covid. So it's a little bit strange that all numbers are falling down but deaths not.
 
Brigantium said:
Face it, that's the vaccine you're most likely to be offered in the UK, even if you'd prefer another one. They signed up for a lot of it.

I don't particularly think they didn't do the proper science with this, have cut corners with testing, or that any of the most-scrutinised companies are faking it, but gauging effectiveness has so many variables that it's very hard to tell until huge numbers of people have had it and subsequently been exposed to the virus. More than 80% is considered very effective. Apparently a seasonal flu vaccine is only expected to be about 60% effective on average, and that'll vary based your age group anyway.
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Don't get me wrong, I'd love the vaccine to be successful, especially considering its low price and storage conditions would make it more affordable to those living in low to mid income countries. My concern - as a biomedical engineering researcher - is that there seem to be some substantial flaws in the data presented so far, which makes it look as if the press release/announcement of the vaccine's success had been rushed in this race to get there first.
 
GhostofCain said:
Don't get me wrong, I'd love the vaccine to be successful, especially considering its low price and storage conditions would make it more affordable to those living in low to mid income countries. My concern - as a biomedical engineering researcher - is that there seem to be some substantial flaws in the data presented so far, which makes it look as if the press release/announcement of the vaccine's success had been rushed in this race to get there first.
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I can accept that, definitely, I don't think any corners have been cut on actual research. The 'who has the best vaccine' contest has been silly. I laughed when Russia announced that extra 2% ahead of the nearest rival.

And yes, if you want to see true impact of today's cases, wait three weeks. When cases went above 20k here, the number of deaths was still quite low. Now 500 to almost 700 deaths a day is the norm. An ICU consultant at my local hospital writes a great blog about their experience of the pandemic, and he believes the drop in the number of new diagnoses in recent days is already being reflected in the number of admissions levelling off, but he's addressed the delay between increases and deaths/hospitalisations a few times.
 
Brigantium said:
I can accept that, definitely, I don't think any corners have been cut on actual research. The 'who has the best vaccine' contest has been silly. I laughed when Russia announced that extra 2% ahead of the nearest rival.

And yes, if you want to see true impact of today's cases, wait three weeks. When cases went above 20k here, the number of deaths was still quite low. Now 500 to almost 700 deaths a day is the norm. An ICU consultant at my local hospital writes a great blog about their experience of the pandemic, and he believes the drop in the number of new diagnoses in recent days is already being reflected in the number of admissions levelling off, but he's addressed the delay between increases and deaths/hospitalisations a few times.
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Nice blog and nice to see that great beer from BrewDog paying homage to that piece of shit that is Dominic Cummings (an absolute cunt, according to people who have dealt with him when he was working with Michael Gove). He could stay at No 10 after breaking the lockdown rules and undermining the government's message and taking the piss out of all of us who have made huge sacrifices, but could not after falling out with Boris Johnson's most recent conquest.
 
I don't think it's so much whimsical political points as feeling the bite to the economy now, not to mention the real concern that Christmas is just going to open the floodgates for people to do what they like resulting in a steep rise in deaths and hospitalisations in January. Especially if people start insisting on getting their relatives out of care homes for Christmas. Two retail chains have just gone under - even if it is fair to say that neither chain had a brilliant business plan and was heading downhill, pandemic or not - and backbenchers are snapping at their heels about continuing disruption to the hospitality trade.

I was slightly concerned that Labour and the SNP abstaining from the vote on the lockdown tiers system this week might result in the defeat of the Government. Where that would leave the Covid restrictions is very worrying, and supposing the Government collapsed, we're very likely to get another Tory government but led by even more dodgy current backbenchers. That party has had way too many purges that keep removing the more moderate politicians and bringing the amoral lunatic fringe further to the fore.
 
Brigantium said:
I don't think it's so much whimsical political points as feeling the bite to the economy now, not to mention the real concern that Christmas is just going to open the floodgates for people to do what they like resulting in a steep rise in deaths and hospitalisations in January. Especially if people start insisting on getting their relatives out of care homes for Christmas. Two retail chains have just gone under - even if it is fair to say that neither chain had a brilliant business plan and was heading downhill, pandemic or not - and backbenchers are snapping at their heels about continuing disruption to the hospitality trade.
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Well, you have a moron like Matt Hancock (the Health Secretary, for those who do not know him) trying to spin the approval of the vaccine as a triumph for Brexit! That does sound like trying to score political points if you ask me.

By the way, there is no need to bring the amoral lunatic Tory fringe to the fore; they are already there (Priti Patel? Dominic Raab? You would be hard-pressed to find a moderate in the current cabinet of incompetent brown-nosers). ;)
 
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