USA Politics

If nobody made a mockery of Congress they'd take themselves entirely too seriously.

Amazing how you can have 12 million people who want to come do shit jobs for you legally, and you keep telling them no.

(yes. an oversimplification of the problem. I am aware.)
 
Colbert is pretty amazing.  I enjoy watching his stuff, and liked his bit with Congress.  I'm curious to see what happens with both his and Stewart's 'march' on D.C.
 
Another election season almost comes to a close, it seems clear that the GOP will end up with a majority in the House of anywhere from a few to 20 seats depending on who turns out where and the Senate will be anywhere from Dems +3 to GOP +2 (though some of the several Dems facing elections in 2012 in Republican states may go along with the GOP giving them a working majority on some issues even if they do not capture the Senate).

What will be curious is what Obama does, the obvious comparison is Clinton and the 1994 GOP takeover.  I am not a big fan of his, but you have to admire the way we politically maneuvered by giving the “Era of big government is over” State of the Union speech and with the Republicans passed some meaningful welfare reforms and balanced the budget, when the GOP overplayed it’s hand with the Lewinski situation and the government he cruised to re-election (over some pretty weak opposition).
The question is, will Obama follow that path (minus the intern-hummers) … 
On one hand, he was elected on the whole hope and change platform and seems more of an ideologue than Clinton was, I question that he will be able to take a democratic sacred cow (like welfare was) and transform it.  After the Health Care battle, Medicare reform seems out of the question, unless he serious reverses policy on energy, there does not seem to be much common ground there.  Maybe Social Security, but I just do not see it happening.
The other question is will the GOP be able to push government cuts and explain them in a way where they are not described as  being “mean” by tossing kids into the streets, killing Grandma, etc.    Will they be out maneuvered politically as they were in 1996 or be able to turn Obama into Jimmy Carter Jr. and take advantage of the vunerable democratic Senators up for re-election in 2012 and force a few more open  House seats and/or party-switchers .

Should be interesting to see how this plays out.
 
A lot of the big politicos are already forcasting a Democratic counter-wave in 2012 to coincide with Obama's re-election (yes, he will be re-elected, much like Clinton, there is no actual Republican who can stand with him). The difference here is that the Republicans are not electing middle-of-the-road candidates. Those districts they picked up in 1994 with moderates turned blue in 2006/08. They're going to be Tea Partying out those guys.

The Republicans have slammed hard to the right. As a result, they're going to try to govern hard to the right, and Obama will have no choice but to veto a lot of stuff. However, as the Senate will remain in Democrat hands, it won't be so bad for them.
 
LooseCannon said:
A lot of the big politicos are already forcasting a Democratic counter-wave in 2012 to coincide with Obama's re-election (yes, he will be re-elected, much like Clinton, there is no actual Republican who can stand with him). The difference here is that the Republicans are not electing middle-of-the-road candidates. Those districts they picked up in 1994 with moderates turned blue in 2006/08. They're going to be Tea Partying out those guys.

The Republicans have slammed hard to the right. As a result, they're going to try to govern hard to the right, and Obama will have no choice but to veto a lot of stuff. However, as the Senate will remain in Democrat hands, it won't be so bad for them.
Click to expand...

A lot depends on who the GOP nominee is, Clinton was certainly helped by running against Bob Dole.  The right candidate could take Obama out, really a lot depends on what the economy looks like in 2012, if it is in decent to good shape, he will certainly benefit and probably win, and 2012 will be generally a status-quo election across the board, though still think there are 1 or 2 Democratic seats in the Senate that would switch (Nebraska almost for sure, and possibities in MO, and OH, plus others depending on who retires, the only questionable GOP seat is Scott Brown in MA and possibly Ensign in NV). 

If the economy is still in the tank, Obama will have a hard time wining.  That was the other advantage Clinton had, in 1996 the economy was good
 
There's only one Republican who has a chance of beating Obama in 2012: Mitt Romney, and he has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the primary. Sorry, I don't see anyone in the GOP field who can stop Obama.

Scratch that. There is someone, but Obama sent him to China as ambassador - former Utah governor Jon Huntsman. He's been my predicition for GOP nominee in 2016 since...well. 2007.
 
I think Pence has a shot to win the primary and beat Obama, the re-election will be a referendum on Obama, if they cannot find something better than George W Bush or secret GOP funds to run on, I think he loses unless the GOP nominates someone like Palin.  If he can run on a good economy, he probably wins no matter who the GOP nominee is.

But pending a compelte reversal of the climate towards the Dems, the GOP still gains 1 to 3 Senate seats in 2012 and the House stays about where it is +/- 5 seats.
 
It depends on the economy and how it gets spun. If Obama's spin doctors are smart (and they are), they will push the GOP house win this year as the reason for a poor or slow economy. He'll run on that failure. If the economy is good, they'll push that hard. Obviously, the former is a bit of a tougher road, but when Obama is going at this for real (he barely tried this year, which makes me wonder rather a lot), he can handle a tougher road.

Pence isn't a bad call, but I don't see him winning the primary in a tea party year.
 
LooseCannon said:
It depends on the economy and how it gets spun. If Obama's spin doctors are smart (and they are), they will push the GOP house win this year as the reason for a poor or slow economy. He'll run on that failure. If the economy is good, they'll push that hard. Obviously, the former is a bit of a tougher road, but when Obama is going at this for real (he barely tried this year, which makes me wonder rather a lot), he can handle a tougher road.

Pence isn't a bad call, but I don't see him winning the primary in a tea party year.
Click to expand...

It depends on the field, if the Tea Party splits amongst Palin, Huckabee, figure Ron Paul may run again,etc .. that could open the field for Pence.  That is pretty much how McCain got the nomination (and Guiliani running a horrible race)
 
Yeah, but Pence vs Romney will hurt his chances too - and Santorum is going to take a stab for it too, he is going psycho at Iowa right now.

Oh, and don't forget the governor of Minnesota, what's his name...fuck. Can't remember it, too lazy to look it up. He's going to go for it too, and he'll divide the field too.

The question is going to be is Pence more likely to come out ahead of Romney & what's his name, or is Palin more likely to come out over Huckabee. Last time Huckabee lost SC only because of Thompson, who shouldn't have been there anyway (and may have ran as a favour to McCain). That's not going to happen this time.
 
LooseCannon said:
Yeah, but Pence vs Romney will hurt his chances too - and Santorum is going to take a stab for it too, he is going psycho at Iowa right now.

Oh, and don't forget the governor of Minnesota, what's his name...fuck. Can't remember it, too lazy to look it up. He's going to go for it too, and he'll divide the field too.

The question is going to be is Pence more likely to come out ahead of Romney & what's his name, or is Palin more likely to come out over Huckabee. Last time Huckabee lost SC only because of Thompson, who shouldn't have been there anyway (and may have ran as a favour to McCain). That's not going to happen this time.
Click to expand...

Pawlenty (sp?) is who I think you are thinking of.  The guy I would really like to see run, but do not think will at this point is Christie, because a) he is the kind of Republican I prefer and b) as person with a degree in political science/history recognize that he would make for a very fun race.

I have to think if Obama wins in 2012, there will be no obvious Dem in 2016 (Hillary too old, Biden too "Biden"), that Christie has a shot then.
 
2 years as a governor isn't really enough experience to become President. I know, neither is 4 years as a Senator, but Obama is a special case caused by a really, really terrible previous president and the natural radical desire to remove from the establishment. It happened before after a horrible president named Buchanan.

Anyway.

Yeah, Christie as he is now wouldn't be too bad. Pawlenty was the guy I was thinking of, thanks for the pickup, Pawlenty's been twisting hard right (though compared to the tea party he's around moderate-right) in the last months. He's gonna take a shot at it. I think Palin has the best chance of winning, but it's still a 1-in-6 thing.
 
LooseCannon said:
2 years as a governor isn't really enough experience to become President. I know, neither is 4 years as a Senator, but Obama is a special case caused by a really, really terrible previous president and the natural radical desire to remove from the establishment. It happened before after a horrible president named Buchanan.

Anyway.

Yeah, Christie as he is now wouldn't be too bad. Pawlenty was the guy I was thinking of, thanks for the pickup, Pawlenty's been twisting hard right (though compared to the tea party he's around moderate-right) in the last months. He's gonna take a shot at it. I think Palin has the best chance of winning, but it's still a 1-in-6 thing.
Click to expand...

I think 2016 (or 2020 if the GOP beats Obama in 2012) is the more likely date for Christie based on just 2 years,  assuming he wins re-election in NJ.
 
2020 will be past his window - unless he goes onto something else after a few years as governor. I think it's 2016 or bust for him.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top