If only! Sadness. Should be an interesting election, anyway.
USA Politics
- Thread starter Genghis Khan
- Start date
bozemanfury
Invader
Early voting is great. Damn, I really should get my ballot in the mail.
Plan for the rest of the day: Finish this research design, mail off my ballot, pound 40s with some buddies until we can't see straight, blast seventh son for a few hours, pass out.
Plan for the rest of the day: Finish this research design, mail off my ballot, pound 40s with some buddies until we can't see straight, blast seventh son for a few hours, pass out.
Forostar
Ancient Mariner
Sick and tired of this intolerant, screaming bunch of populist lovers? This lying minority who radically wants to take over your country with their unhealthy ideas? Take to the streets tomorrow, US citizens!
Join the Rally To Restore Insanity
Man, I wish we had a Jon Stewart in Holland, seriously.
Rally to restore insanity announcement <- this video shows the madness that is growing.
And this Mr. Stewart knows that. Brilliant!
"A clarion call for rationality!"
Join the Rally To Restore Insanity
Man, I wish we had a Jon Stewart in Holland, seriously.
Rally to restore insanity announcement <- this video shows the madness that is growing.
And this Mr. Stewart knows that. Brilliant!
"A clarion call for rationality!"
bearfan said:
There's nothing wrong with disagreeing. I suspect you and I disagree on many things. But we can disagree respectfully. A lot of those psychos…are just that. And they scare me.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
LooseCannon said:
There are nutjobs on both sides of the fence to be sure, fortunatly, they are generally weeded out, if not the first time, the second time around (or they moderate). I think, the US is a center to slightly right of center country on the whole, and swings too far to one side or the other eventually balance out.
I do think the Tea Party as a whole is getting painted with a bit of a broad brush, wanting to reduce the size and scope of government is a valid stance, some of the candidated (O'Donnell comes to mind) are very poor messengers.
I would really like to see a debate about the role of government in the US come out of this election as the House will certainly push measures to reduce it, but we'll end up with the usual "You are Nazis who want to starve children and take away our rights" versus the "You are Communists who want to work us to death and take away our rights" (and variations thereof) arguments dominate as usual, which is a shame.
I'm thinking the Senate will be interesting, but 9 is a lot. I'm off this week coming - I'll post my detailed (and semi-professional) analysis shortly.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
I'll post mine here
Dem Pickups
None, though I will give them a slim chance in Alaska due to the nature of the race
GOP pickups
Sure Things
Indiana
Arkansas
North Dakota
Probably GOP
Wisconsin
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Tossups
West Virginia
Washington
Slim chance
California
Connecticut
Very Slim Chance
Delaware
Dem Pickups
None, though I will give them a slim chance in Alaska due to the nature of the race
GOP pickups
Sure Things
Indiana
Arkansas
North Dakota
Probably GOP
Wisconsin
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Tossups
West Virginia
Washington
Slim chance
California
Connecticut
Very Slim Chance
Delaware
Alaska has become really interesting! Definitely another example of how the Tea Party has hurt the Republicans - they also lost a sure thing in Delaware because of what's her nuts, and the race in Nevada has been a lot more competitive than it should have been.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
They have hurt them in these places (though Delaware is really the only one they will end up loding, Murkowski (is she wins), will be a Republican will be a reliable Republican in the Senate. but they are also leading them to victory and will turn out big time in others, which will end up being quite a few house seats, plus a ton of campaign contributions. There is an article on politico about how the small donations from the Tea Party have helped. Overall, I think it is a positive force, with a few wackos (similar to the Reform Party movement in the 90s).
Forgot Colorado, add that to tossup
bearfan said:
Forgot Colorado, add that to tossup
I think the way the Tea Party will help the Republicans is a few years down the road - I don't think they're a few whackos. They're an alliance of several fringe groups and a couple groups who are just tired of how things are. In the end any group that calls themselves the Tea Party like it's a great and noble thing has a few screws missing.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
We'll have to disagree on this, if they frame themselves overall as a movement of limited government, they can have success in the US for some time, if they drift too far right then they are in trouble .. in part like the Dems are now, they reached way too far with Health Care and now will be paying the price.
Oh, if they frame themselves that way. But their biggest proponents don't do that - Palin, O'Connell, Angle. They might win some races but a lot of people still think they are kinda...fucked up.
The problem with health care is more than it just alienated people. In the last polls, HCR was around 45% for 48% against, but of the 48%, 2/5th were upset because it didn't go far enough. It was never a winning issue.
The problem with health care is more than it just alienated people. In the last polls, HCR was around 45% for 48% against, but of the 48%, 2/5th were upset because it didn't go far enough. It was never a winning issue.
And the way it is being done, it never will be a winning issue. Health Care Reform is just 'Health Care Insurance' - forced or not. Reform would be nice, where shit isn't being done and charged 10 times its real value.
But I digress.
But I digress.
bearfan
Ancient Mariner
Looks like Nate is projecting that 8 Senate seats flip.
For reference, Nate Silver is a smart, smart man, and his brain has led to a re-aligning in the polls industry over the past few months.
For reference, Nate Silver is a smart, smart man, and his brain has led to a re-aligning in the polls industry over the past few months.
Suicidehummer
Trooper
bearfan said:
I don't think it's possible for the Tea Party to move any further right... and they claim to be a movement of limited government and lowering the deficit, but they wanted to extend Bush's tax cuts for the wealthiest 3%? And I don't see them burning their Medicare cards...