USA Politics

The Tea Party really seems uneducated to me. I don't doubt they have some educated people aligned with them, but the vast majority of them feel foolish. There are some ideas there, but I don't see new ideas.

Anyway.

My disagreement with Senate with BF goes as I put Illinois into tossup, and then I would put Delaware into certainly Democrat, and California into probably Democrat (recent polls put Boxer up by 8-9 points among likely voters). McMahon in Ct has crashed of late. Pennsylvania is likely GOP, but Sestak might pull it out - he's surged recently.
 
I think the "uneducated" are the exception rather than the rule.  There are clearly some bad candidates, but there are also some very good ones as well as some "maintream" GOPers that agree with at least parts of the Tea Party agenda.  I am not sure if you are refering to the candidates or the rank and file as un-educated.

For Illinois, the RCP average is Kirk +3.3, I think that is in the lean GOP area.  As with most Illinois elections, the Dems will do very well in Chicago and E. St Louis, the GOP will do very well in the rest of the state, the key wil be turnout and the GOP pulling decent numbers in the Chicago suburbs. 

You are probably right about Delaware, the GOP has less of a chance there than California, which is also iffy.  I do think Fiornia is a good candidate, Boxer is just tough to beat, she has always proven great and pushing up the negatives of any opponent even though her approval numbers have always been well below Feinstien for example.

In CT, the RCP acerage is 8.7, probably Dem, but 8.7 in a small state where the governors race is a virtual tie in a "wave" mid-term, it is not a sure thing, but still probably a Democratic win.

West Virginia will probably be the early indicator if the GOP has any shot to take the Senate or get it to 50-50 and see if they can peel off Nelson or Lieberman (I think it is doubtful either would switch parties, but a lot depends on what their ambitions are in 2012).  We'll find out soon.
 
I was certainly talking about the rank and file - many Tea Party candidates are educated. I disagree with them, but they aren't stupid. There are a few who are pretty dumb.

Electoral-vote.com has the rolling average Kirk +1%, which is well within margin of error. Illinois usually breaks Democrat and to me, that makes it a tossup, not leaning.

Fiorina will hurt from the damage done to the California's GOP brand by Whitman. That illegal immigrant thing hurt her hard. Boxer will tough this one out, I think.

The recent polls show Manchin up in WV by 1 point, well within margin of error. That will be an interesting race! Still, they need 10 pickups to get the Senate.
 
I think the Senate is probably out of reach this election, there are some pickup opportunities in 2012.

I really do not buy the Tea Party rank and file (as a whole) as any less educated than people in inner cities which vote heavily democratic. 
 
You know, there's probably something to do that, but I'd certainly say they're louder right now.

I should make it clear that I don't idealize the current situation in US politics as "different", as you'll hear a lot of people saying. I don't necessarily agree with Jon Stewart et al who consider the current system to be broken or in any way unusual. There is more media attention, but people pay less attention to the media - but the system is the same, save for a brief period of sanity in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. It's kinda always been this way.
 
the current system is certainly not ideal, and I think it reflects the "Reality Show" culture as a whole


The things the media focuses on are so far removed from actually policy discussion it is very sad .. and it seems to get worse from year to year .. not to mention the ads, talking heads, 24 news stations, bloggers, etc.  I certainly should mention there are legit news sources that do a good jobs and people on all ends of the spectrum that make the effort to explain their positions, they are unfortunatly in the minority.
 
This election has been interesting, because I feel like there has been more trash talking than I recall in the past.  And, I know that there have been some huge mud slinging elections, especially Presidential ones, however, I hear a lot of Senate races using grandmothers, granddaughters, retired military, and fucked up clips-- the clips especially, because I see a guy saying one thing, then they cut only a small part out to make it look like he said something completely different.  Its dirty in the trenches this year.
 
Also, in the same line of thought, a lot of the ads that I hear, negative ones, go on and on about the person they are blasting, with little or no mention of the person they are in support of.... and, yes, I have seen that in the past (which I think is stupid), but it seems this time around there are more "Joe Blowe is a liar, a cheat, a jerk" and that's it til the end and "Approved by Bob Slob". 

I really like the one about the current IL governor:  "He even kept on 75% of Blago's cronies".  Seriously, the ad said (and read) 'cronies'!!  Ha ha!
 
Cronies is used quite a bit in the anti-Rick Perry ads in Texas as well.  I am glad today is the last day for all these commercials.
 
LooseCannon said:
I was certainly talking about the rank and file - many Tea Party candidates are educated. I disagree with them, but they aren't stupid. There are a few who are pretty dumb.
Click to expand...

Educated or uneducated, dumb or not dumb, we certainly may say that a lot of them have the media behind them, rather than the facts. They speak about betrayal, abuse, they say they are misled, but they don't explain why. I hear more rhetoric than substance. A big mouth seems more important than explaining what you stand for with arguments.

The attitudes of Tea Party supporters, on issues of race, immigration and gay rights are not comforting either, to say the least.

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results.html (check the June 1 update)
http://depts.washington.edu/uwiser/racepolitics.html
 
Not conforming to what? 

They are certainly on the right, but Gay Marriage failed in a state like California twice.  Anti-Affirmative action is a mainstream position as is anti-illegal immegration (which also passed in a state like California).
Will be interesting to see what happens now, GOP House, Dem Senate, Dem White House.  Last time there was something similar to this was 1980 to 1982 (Reagan, GOP Senate, Dem House).
 
bearfan said:
Not conforming to what?
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comforting

I'm not just talking about gay marriage. In case you're not willing to check the links, I'll tell you this is also about laws to protect homosexuals against job discrimination, about homosexuals being allowed to serve in the United States Armed forces, and about gay or lesbian couples being allowed to legally adopt children.

Tea Party members are drinking stronger tea than the average American when it comes to these issues.
 
Forostar said:
comforting

I'm not just talking about gay marriage. In case you're not willing to check the links, I'll tell you this is also about laws to protect homosexuals against job discrimination, about homosexuals being allowed to serve in the United States Armed forces, and about gay or lesbian couples being allowed to legally adopt children.

Tea Party members are drinking stronger tea than the average American when it comes to these issues.
Click to expand...
It's early, I missed the "t"
I read the Washington Poll, they are 20% out of the mainstream of Washington State on Gay/Issues and are 19% of the population.  I am sure if you picked the 19% on the left, their views would also be at least 20% out of the mainstream on many issues.  Though Washington State as a state is a bit to the left of mainstream to begin with.
 
Equality shouldn't be put up for a vote. This is definitely one area I find the Tea Party (and most Republicans, and some Democrats) to be completely reprehensible: the issue of gay rights.
 
I tend to doubt there will be many votes taked on gay rights in the House/Senate this year.  If the GOP leads with social issues, they will end up in the same shape they were in the past two elections.  Everything will and should be about the economy and government spending.
 
Oh, I agree there. My point is that there shouldn't be referenda on things like the right of some people to marry.
 
The California referendum system is something that needs to be looked at in general,there have been some good things passed from in (Prop 13 comes to mind -- property taxes), but some of the things that have passed has cost the state untold millions in legislation and generates conflicting priorities and unrealisting funding levels.  In part, it is why the state is in the mess it is in.  It gives the legislature an opportunity to pass on handling the serious issues and they spend their time spending on things way down on the state's overall priority list.
 
And it gives the people the ability to vote for social welfare programs while at the same time voting against paying for them. That's one of my biggest problems with California - okay. You want programs? Pay for them.
 
Exactly and it gives the legislature a pass on making any tough choices and lets them keep postponing the inevitable.    Pick one, pay higher taxes and have these programs or not.
 
Yep. So, I think it's really.....bad. The way they run things there. People won't make hard decisions. Politicians have to make hard decisions.
 
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