USA Politics

Flaming Blimp Crash said:
Just watched his 'public unveiling' with the rally in Philadelphia. God damn, I'm fired up and want to vote now.
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Yea, he was great and is really growing on me. I want to see how he lands with rust belt voters when there's polling, but he comes off really well to me and seems like a genuine guy (which is a perfect contrast to the other ticket). It also looks like Walz's biggest liability (the Floyd protests) has already been kneecapped by a tape of Trump giving his handling of that a ringing endorsement. Anyway, I don't want to sound too much like Trump here, but I do get the feeling that while Walz will be a boon to this ticket his selection is a bit of a signal that Harris could carry the rust belt on her own, which so far the polling kinda is moving in that direction. I would not be surprised if she over-performs Biden's numbers in PA, especially given 2022 election results. There are too many suburbs and metro areas that Trump is very weak in that as long as the Democratic base is activated, it's going to be hard for Trump to build a winning coalition there. Same with Georgia, especially if Trump keeps picking fights with their popular Republican governor.

BTW, there's a lot of buzz around Trump's lack of campaigning this week. He's not visiting any swing states, and is instead cozying up to donors in the red Mountain West region. This was something that I may have posted about earlier in the year before Biden's weaknesses became more apparent, but I think we have to seriously question whether Trump is up for this kind of campaign (i.e. where the opponent isn't able to do the usual amount of major speaking events/rallies). Trump was able to coast with a light schedule because Biden also had a light schedule. Now that Kamala is barnstorming the midwest, Trump is doing a few really low energy rallies, interviews in safe spaces, and on the rare occasion he does go out of his comfort zone you get a disaster like the association of black journalists thing. He looks really tired at his rallies and it really is starting to look like his age is catching up to him. Add to that I think his money problems are coming back into the fold as his only field operation is supposedly in PA. It's always early, but I don't know how anyone can objectively see Trump running a winning campaign right now.
 
The Trump campaign previously was hammering Biden over his age and cognitive abilities related to his age. It's suddenly pivoted to "Well, Joe wasn't really that old" now that Trump is the oldest-ever candidate to accept a party's nomination. Everything Trump does when it comes to his schedule to what he says now is now under a microscope more than ever. The same criticisms Biden faced over his age, Trump now receives the brunt of.
 
Flaming Blimp Crash said:
The Trump campaign previously was hammering Biden over his age and cognitive abilities related to his age. It's suddenly pivoted to "Well, Joe wasn't really that old" now that Trump is the oldest-ever candidate to accept a party's nomination. Everything Trump does when it comes to his schedule to what he says now is now under a microscope more than ever. The same criticisms Biden faced over his age, Trump now receives the brunt of.
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You reap what you sow etcetera.
 
I was wondering - especially considering the fact the Reps have turned into a more or less one-man party - what would happen if for one reason or other (I'd say primarily health now) Trump couldn't run as well? Would he be replaced by Vance automatically or would there be another convention or... ? In fact I'm wondering in general how the party's gonna look like after he's gone (which in any case is sooner rather than later).
 
I am not sure what the rules are but assume it would have to be Vance. That’s the logistically easiest option and makes the most political sense. We are probably at the point where Trump will be on the ballot no matter what and there won’t be time to make changes.
 
Just watched some clips of Trump's press conference today (I guess he reads Maidenfans and realized he needed to make an appearance). Very low energy, very rambly/confused, Trump seems tired and not well. He should drop out.
 
Mosh said:
I am not sure what the rules are but assume it would have to be Vance. That’s the logistically easiest option and makes the most political sense. We are probably at the point where Trump will be on the ballot no matter what and there won’t be time to make changes.
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Thanks, I thought it would be so. Yeah, he's an opportunist (so that you can't believe even a single thing - even, like, the single one thing in which Reps are better than Dems), his stance on Ukraine is bad (and troublesome, for European countries) and instinctively, there's just something slightly off-putting about him, but anything's better than Trump. Well, apart from that Vivek bloke that was like Trump, but crazier.

Still, I wonder what the political landscape is going to be, say, ten years from now.
 
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Yeah, I edited it, I apparently conflated him with Vivian Stanshall (of the Bonzo Dog Doo-Dah Band fame), name-wise.
 
JudasMyGuide said:
Thanks, I thought it would be so. Yeah, he's an opportunist (so that you can't believe even a single thing - even, like, the single one thing in which Reps are better than Dems), his stance on Ukraine is bad (and troublesome, for European countries) and instinctively, there's just something slightly off-putting about him, but anything's better than Trump. Well, apart from that Vivek bloke that was like Trump, but crazier.

Still, I wonder what the political landscape is going to be, say, ten years from now.
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Probably a fool’s errand to try and guess but it’s something I think about a lot as well. I could see the Republican Party evolving into a younger more tech bro kind of thing. A bit more environmentally friendly but maybe more socially conservative (is secular family values a thing?).

Ultimately the groups that lose out imo are the neoconservatives and evangelicals. The former group has either folded into the Democratic Party or just abandoned their values for Trump (see Lindsey Graham). Either way they don’t really have any legitimate influence on either party. The latter I think will go down with Trump and in general is just less influential to American culture. But I think the evangelical movement lost a lot of credibility when they hitched their wagon to a thrice divorced playboy with no moral compass. Even within Trumpism the influence is declining. You see this in the abortion debate. How Trump went from choosing Mike Pence as VP in 2016 and saying women should go be punished for having an abortion to this last week where he refuses to say how he’ll vote on an abortion referendum and attempting to push the party more to the center on abortion. That seems unthinkable from a Republican candidate just five years ago.
 
Mosh said:
Ultimately the groups that lose out imo are the neoconservatives and evangelicals. The former group has either folded into the Democratic Party or just abandoned their values for Trump (see Lindsey Graham).
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Even vultures have values!
 
It’ll be interesting. JD is probably capable of a good debate but he has clearly been rattled by the bad press. At the same time, Democrats need to be careful not to lower expectations too much because that will just make it that much easier to clear the bar.
 
Onhell said:
I'm hoping he sticks to the issues and stays away/doesn't take the bait on personal attacks/jabs.
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I'm not worrying about that. Walz will probably focus on policy and concrete ideas, while adding a couple of jabs here and there. If Vance makes the mistake of going after Walz's military record the later will crush him. Especially after Trump's weird comments on the medal of honor the other day and Vance's doubling down on those comments.
 
DNC begins this week so we'll probably see a polling bump for Harris before things settle around Labor Day in two weeks when we'll get a clearer view of the race (+ the debates which I think will be more consequential than previous election cycles). With that said, here's my view of the race before the numbers potentially change. From most important swing state to least important:

PA - At this point it seems like whoever wins PA will win the election. Possibly the most importance a single state has had in an election since Ohio in 2004? Right now it seems like a tossup, but personally I think the suburbs of Philly and other of the more urban/diverse parts of the state will deliver it to Harris. Going to be a nail-biter though.

MI - I think the biggest question here is whether the Palestine protests make a difference. MI has a big enough Muslim population that it could be decisive, but Democrats also have a really strong operation here thanks to Big Gretch. Honestly I have a hard time seeing this state flipping to Trump when it experienced a blue wave in a Republican favored off year (2022). So far the polling mostly supports that as well.

WI - Democrats look pretty strong here, honestly I think even if Biden had stayed in the race he had a pretty good chance in Wisconsin. It's also the lowest EVs of the three Rust Belt states so a little bit easier to replace in the case of a loss. Either way though I don't see Trump winning here.

While Kamala has significantly expanded the map compared to Biden, the fact remains that most paths to victory go through the above three states. Unlike Biden, she looks strong in other states as well though.

GA - A victory in Georgia could offset a loss in PA (although I kinda have a hard time seeing that scenario). Similar to PA, Kamala should be strong in the Atlanta area and its suburbs. Biden's victory in 2020 still left a lot on the table in terms of gettable urban vote, I'll be interested to see if Kamala can close the gap. It also doesn't help that Trump keeps antagonizing the state Republican operation. At the same time though, Georgia does have the strongest state GOP operation of any swing state. They have a popular Republican governor and overall just have a smarter on the ground organization. Kamala also isn't polling very well currently. Maybe she closes the gap, but it's going to be a tough one.

NC - Maybe a hot take, but I think Democrats should make a bigger push in NC. Biden didn't lose it by that much, the governor candidate is terrible, and it is polling better for her than Georgia or Nevada. Imo it's a similar situation to 2020 where terrible downballot candidates are liable to drag Trump down as well. Also, it is worth a lot of EVs and significantly opens up Harris' paths to victory. She could lose Georgia and Pennsylvania and still win the Electoral College with NC. There's a lot of potential here imo.

AZ - Harris is polling surprisingly well here. It doesn't replace PA but it could replace MI if paired with another sunbelt state or WI by itself. There are a lot of Harris 270+ maps without AZ so I don't think it's quite as essential, but I also think Harris is a really strong AZ candidate and Trump is a really weak AZ candidate. And, again, Kari Lake is a terrible senate candidate and is probably not helping Trump.

NV - I ultimately think Harris will carry NV despite polling and, like WI, I think Biden would have ultimately won narrowly here. NV is fool's gold for Republicans and I think it's still going to be a few cycles before a Republican carries it on the presidential level. The problem is that it's EV count is so low that I don't think it makes a difference either way. It could pull Harris out of a bind if paired with AZ, but ultimately I think she has less risky paths to victory.

FL/TX - Probably not happening this cycle, but I think Democrats should throw some money there to at least make Trump sweat and maybe put one of those Senate seats in play because Jon Tester holding his seat in Montana is a tall order.

Overall, if the election were held today I would feel pretty good about Harris' chances but it would be close. I think she is ultimately favored just because she has a few viable paths to victory. A clean sweep of the rust belt states seems like a high probability, but she could also lose one of those states and make up for it in the sun belt where she is polling way better than Biden. Trump is always going to hold a pretty strong advantage because he could win the EC with PA and GA alone, which is a pretty low bar. Polling is tight but also looking more reflective of the actual 2020 results. I have a hard time seeing the same kind of polling miss since it would result in something closer to a Trump landslide, which I just don't see in this environment. Right now it looks close, but I would bet on Harris with maybe medium level confidence.
 
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