USA Politics

[bearfan]

The intermingling of the two party system with the instruments of the state has really bothered me. Feels like they should either be private institutions or public institutions, not something inbetween. Anyway.

Agree they have a very odd status .. which also pretty much ensures one of the two parties will win 99% of all elections .. down to the lowest levels of partisan elections

 

[LooseCannon]

True .. I think a lot of this is academic. There are really 3 options for someone besides Biden
1) He dies .. ideally not
2) He pulls his name, in which case it will be decided at the convention (and he would really need to withdraw before then. Of course delegates will skew left and who knows who they will nominate ... that would not be good for the party
3) A revolt at the convention (highly unlikely and that would lead to legal challenges based on state laws/party rules, etc.)

I don't believe a revolt is likely to happen, and like you said, legal challenges, etc. Delegates are bound to vote in the first round for their pledged candidate, if memory serves, but I haven't looked at the rules.

I figure in a divided convention there'd be four major candidates - Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer. None of these are meaningfully more left wing than Joe Biden. They're not going to pick Bernie Sanders or AOC (neither of whom are meaningfully more left wing than Joe Biden, really). And delegates are picked by the state parties, most of which are establishment. The most likely combination is Whitmer + Buttigieg from this, in my guess. It can't be Harris + Newsom.

 

[bearfan]

I don't believe a revolt is likely to happen, and like you said, legal challenges, etc. Delegates are bound to vote in the first round for their pledged candidate, if memory serves, but I haven't looked at the rules.

I figure in a divided convention there'd be four major candidates - Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer. None of these are meaningfully more left wing than Joe Biden. They're not going to pick Bernie Sanders or AOC (neither of whom are meaningfully more left wing than Joe Biden, really). And delegates are picked by the state parties, most of which are establishment. The most likely combination is Whitmer + Buttigieg from this, in my guess. It can't be Harris + Newsom.

If it happened, and I highly doubt it will .. who knows who will get picked. But it would be a blood bath between the more left-wing delegates and the establishment. In any case, it is really the last thing any party would want and there is a reason this has not happened in a long time. Ford-Reagan in 1976
It is a pretty sure path to a defeat.

 

[LooseCannon]

Yeah, it'd definitely be a bloodbath. I don't believe whoever came out would have a coalition capable of winning, for sure.

 

[Mosh]

Whitmer + Buttigieg

This seems the most likely to me as well. I think a bloodbath can be avoided if this is all figured out quietly with Biden and Harris’ blessings. I would like to believe that the progressive left would decide that now is not the time to have that fight, but a unified convention that is attended by Biden, Harris, Sanders, and AOC (as well as congressional leadership) would go a long way.

 

[Flaming Blimp Crash]

I would like to believe that the progressive left would decide that now is not the time to have that fight,

Progressive left is still smarting over Sanders running a shit campaign in 2016 + 2020 (and I voted for him in each primary.) I doubt there'd be any consensus reached. Drop Biden and the bloodbath from the infighting would net Trump 350+ EVs

 

[LooseCannon]

The one thing that can be said about Joe Biden is his coalition building skills are as good as any modern Democrat and better than most (Hillary, Gore, definitely way better than Herman Munster). And he's done enough progressive stuff to get most of them who usually vote to hold their nose, primarily his cancelling and attempts to cancel student loan debt.

 

[____no5]

No, there’s still no conspiracy to replace Biden and the article you posted is still trash. I stand by what I said.

Then replace conspiracy with trash and the trash you laughed at yesterday you wish to happen tomorrow.

And my point was why it took you and others a full year to realize that Biden should not run in the first place.

 

[Vaenyr]

The funny thing is, that despite Biden's atrocious performance, there have already been reports that undecided voters are allegedly supporting Biden after the debate.

That, plus his speech on the next day also got a lot of acclaim. I think we are well past the point where a bad performance in a debate could decide the fate of an election. It used to be that a weird way to yell "yeah" could sink your campaign, but not in 2024 anymore.

Dropping Biden now would be political suicide. He has his bad days, but he also has days where he's really effective. I don't like some of his stances, but I still think he's the best bet to beat Trump in November.

 

[Jer]

Editorials of The Times: To Serve His Country, President Biden Should Leave the Race

President Joe Biden has repeatedly and rightfully described the stakes in this November’s presidential election as nothing less than the future of American democracy. Donald Trump has proved himself to be a significant jeopardy to that democracy — an erratic and self-interested figure unworthy...

sg.news.yahoo.com

(NY Times Editorial Board piece, linked through a non-paywalled source)

Also:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/opinions/biden-trump-withdraw-2024-presidency-parini/index.html

 

[LooseCannon]

It will be interesting to see what the polls say. Because if the polls do suggest undecided voters, all four of them, are moving to Biden, then that probably locks him in. The next debate isn't until September. I would be blown away if Biden comes out the same way then, but it's after the convention, unfortunately.

 

[____no5]

Newsom is the man and we know it since a year. He’s a fine candidate. And yes it has to have Jill’s permission and Joe’s blessings. And Harris wouldn’t like it at all to step aside.

But seeing how Obama rushed to support Biden in X, all bets are off and probably Biden will run in the end. Which is a shame, because he would be replaced very soon in the presidency by Harris. His dementia is getting worse he wouldn’t last a year.

 

[Mosh]

It will be interesting to see what the polls say. Because if the polls do suggest undecided voters, all four of them, are moving to Biden, then that probably locks him in. The next debate isn't until September. I would be blown away if Biden comes out the same way then, but it's after the convention, unfortunately.

I can definitely see in a weird roundabout way the debate scaring the shit out of everybody who doesn’t want another Trump presidency and making everybody worried about Biden losing, which could get undecideds off the fence. The polling will be critical though: if Biden is losing support in post debate polls I think you’re going to start seeing public calls for him to step aside before the convention.

 

[Mosh]

Then replace conspiracy with trash and the trash you laughed at yesterday you wish to happen tomorrow.

And my point was why it took you and others a full year to realize that Biden should not run in the first place.

You can probably find posts in this thread since 2022 where I say Biden shouldn’t run again. The only thing I have called you out on, and will continue to call you out on, is posting conspiracy theories about a secret plan to replace Biden and failing to provide a reliable source.

 

[Flaming Blimp Crash]

Evidently three Bidenless primary polls were conducted in the aftermath of the debate. Harris leads over Newsom in each - 39-18%, 30-20%, 43-16% yet Harris isn't viewed as a strong successor (appropriately so, if you ask me.) Also, in polling against Trump, Data for Progress shows that Biden is still the strongest candidate and is actually beating Trump still. Pritzker, Whitmer, Shapiro, Harris and Newsom were all polled against Trump and showed they would lose. Polls were conducted on the 28th.

I hate polling nowadays anyways because it's been so damn off in terms of actual voting results, but It is not easy to just plug someone new in and expect everything to be the same or even better.

Also, plugging in one of these governors and expecting the nation at large to get up to speed to them fully enough in four months to ask for their vote? Tough sell.

 

[____no5]

You can probably find posts in this thread since 2022 where I say Biden shouldn’t run again.

Fair enough. But you didn’t express that view strongly or so it seemed to me.

The only thing I have called you out on, and will continue to call you out on, is posting conspiracy theories about a secret plan to replace Biden and failing to provide a reliable source.

I wasn’t 100% convinced either, just put it out there, not as some indisputable truth but as a view some people have. Talk about last summer.

For the Daily Mail post I was even less convinced, but the fact that an ex UK PM writes there, even if he is a clown, still adds some weight in my view.

We will see how it will play out but the fact that Obama very publicly went out and publicly defended « a bad debate » pretty much puts an end to that plot.

Still it makes zero sense to me why current discussion between Democrats to replace Biden is happening now and not last summer. Biden’s mental decline is pretty obvious at least 2 years now.
Maybe they put too much faith that Trump trials would do the job, or whatever they put their faith to, which was utterly wrong as concept.

It shouldn’t be about winning Trump in the first place, but choosing a sound candidate to lead the country.
And that didn’t even start now, it started in 2020 if not 2016.

Democrats focused too much, and still do, on Trump and that is how he dominated the scene for nearly 10 years.

EDIT: At least if they were changing Harris -they still can do that.

 

[Flaming Blimp Crash]

But, why would a clown add any weight?

 

[Vaenyr]

Clown shoes are comically large. I'm sure those weigh quite a bit.

 

[Mosh]

As a former president who doesn’t currently hold or is seeking any real political position, Obama’s job is to get the nominee elected. Since that person right now is Biden, he’s not going to go against the grain there. Keep in mind also that Obama has largely stayed out of the Democratic primary process, as he should imo. So I wouldn’t put much stock there.

The discussion over Biden’s age has been happening since he got elected. I think a lot of people, myself included, voted for Biden with the expectation that he would pass the torch. But Biden has to make that decision. Nobody is going to be able to force him off the ballot and any Democrat who actually has a shot at winning a primary or the general election isn’t going to kill their political future by trying to primary him. That’s why you don’t see prominent democrats publicly saying he should step aside and why people like Newsom are staying quiet. If Biden publicly announced that he is stepping aside, that changes everything. In some ways Biden has the party hostage in that sense.

I am not going to pretend that I know how things will unfold in November. Nobody does. I agree that it’s bad that this conversation is happening 5 months before the election, but I think it has to happen anyway. There is one more realistic chance at a new candidate (the convention) and I think it’s necessary for the Biden campaign to take an honest assessment of the situation. He is behind in the polls and that disastrous debate performance was probably his best and last chance to really get his candidacy and message in front of a large audience. I think it was wrong for him not to announce that he wouldn’t be seeking a second term back in 2022 and that it will be extremely unfortunate if he steps aside now when he could have let a primary process correctly play out back then. But he didn’t, and this is where we’re at. I take @Flaming Blimp Crash and LC’s point that it would be a real uphill climb to get a new candidate in there and preserve the coalition, but I also think that if we wake up on November 6 with president elect Trump and a defeated Biden, the central question is going to be whether that outcome could have been prevented at the convention. It’s all risk assessment and I think running Biden is risky enough to take a new ticket seriously.

 

[Vaenyr]

A new post-debate poll shows Biden slightly ahead. Not that polls are reliable, as the last years have shown.

People aren't voting for Biden because the like him. The vote for him to vote against Trump. One bad debate doesn't change that reality. One bad debate doesn't make the threat of Project 2025 suddenly disappear.