USA Politics

[Flaming Blimp Crash]

For god’s sake, Joe, please step aside before the convention while there’s still an opportunity to fix ththis.

That's a surefire way to lose the election four months out.

Biden's performance last night will go down as a historically bad performance in terms of presidential debates, but there is an opportunity for the campaign to redeem itself with the next one in September.

Fired up Joe inspires the base a la the SotU. The elder statesman role he's tried to project since 2020 to contrast to Trump (who actually played to the format very well) doesn't cut it in this venue. Look at Obama in 2012. His performance in the opening debate was utterly flaccid and pulled Romney back to a dead heat - he turned it around in the next two though.

It's basically July and there's a lot that can still happen - Trump's sentencing rapidly approaches. While jail time is highly unlikely, the news cycle will shift back to him.

But, dumping the presumptive nominee over a debate? Christ.

 

[LooseCannon]

Yeah, I don't think it's feasible to dump Biden. Part of the reason it's not feasible is there's no successor candidate who can come with the party wings unified under him.

 

[Flaming Blimp Crash]

There's always an incumbency bump. Happened with Trump four years ago. Happened with Obama 12 years ago.

You don't keep that with a new face.

 

[Mosh]

Imo people are so bummed about Biden vs Trump this year that they would accept just about any candidate an open convention would produce. Any of the popular governors would be an appropriate choice (Newsom, Whitmer, Polis, Pritzker, Moore). It’s not just about one bad debate performance, but the fact that Biden’s ability to do the job continues to be a central focus of this election. Obama had a bad debate against Romney, but nobody was questioning if Obama was still fit to be the president nor did it play into a preexisting narrative that was hounding him.


@JudasMyGuide Considering their statuses, I assume they both have access to the highest possible quality care and Biden in particular probably has routine physicals and regular exercise. Even Trump maintains an active lifestyle for someone his age and also has access to high quality health care. Obviously none of these things can prevent cognitive decline or brain diseases, but I am sure there’s enough effort going in to keeping these guys healthy.

 

[bearfan]

I think each party could put all the names of every elected official, pull a name out of the hat and we would have 2 better candidates

 

[bearfan]

the VP debate might actually be pretty important this time around .. generally they are not unless someone does incredibly poorly ... but even then the usually do not matter in the general election. This year could be different, even moreso than last time with the age question of both. There is a a much better than usual chance the VP will end up taking over at some point

 

[____no5]

I actually am beginning to hope that there is really a contingency plan to nominate someone else because this was a potentially campaign ending disaster.

Lol.

When we pray for the conspiracy theories we laughed at yesterday, to become true tomorrow.
…
I really don’t know why it took next door Democrats so long to come to this realization.

 

[MrKnickerbocker]

the VP debate might actually be pretty important this time around .. generally they are not unless someone does incredibly poorly ... but even then the usually do not matter in the general election. This year could be different, even moreso than last time with the age question of both. There is a a much better than usual chance the VP will end up taking over at some point

Has Trumpy even announced a VP yet?

Imo people are so bummed about Biden vs Trump this year that they would accept just about any candidate an open convention would produce. Any of the popular governors would be an appropriate choice (Newsom, Whitmer, Polis, Pritzker, Moore).

PLEASE.

 

[Jer]

But, dumping the presumptive nominee over a debate? Christ.

It’s not dumping him over just a debate — it’s dumping him over everything leading up to that debate, plus his debate performance strongly reinforcing every negative impression that potential swing voters have about him.

If he’d actually participated in the primary process and debated his legitimate opponents during that phase of the campaign he would have either worked out the kinks or been shown to be incompetent in that format months ago. But because the Democratic powers that be insisted on plugging their ears, shutting their eyes, and chanting “LA LA LA LA LA” all the way to Biden clinching the nomination, here we are.

This is not a typical incumbent vs. insurgent election. There is no modern precedent for a former president challenging a sitting president, and we’ve never had a candidate as old as Biden with as many legitimate concerns about his cognitive abilities. Reagan is the closest example, but Reagan never presented himself this badly in public.

If you want Trump to win, sure, keep Biden on the ticket. People might even hate Trump enough for Biden to eke out a win. But if you put any competent center-left Democrat under 60 at the top of the ticket they’ll run away with this thing for sure, IMO.

 

[Mosh]

When we pray for the conspiracy theories we laughed at yesterday, to become true tomorrow.
…
I really don’t know why it took next door Democrats so long to come to this realization.

No, there’s still no conspiracy to replace Biden and the article you posted is still trash. I stand by what I said.

 

[Mosh]

legitimate opponents

Of which there were none, which is part of the problem.

A governor is the way to go imo. Get someone who has a record of successfully running a state (preferably a swing state) to finally put an end to the debate over who is more fit for office. I think Biden can beat Trump, but even if the DNC hand selects a democratic governor to take over (with Biden’s blessing, which is the tricky part), Trump is toast. Instead of gambling on a tossup race they could easily lock him out of the rust belt with the right candidate. I truly believe that and truly believe that most voters (including all democrats, independents and center right republicans) would be relieved to see a qualified governor on the ticket. The problem is that none of this works if Biden insists on running.

I am curious what @bearfan thinks or anyone who has been opting third party the last few presidential cycles.

 

[Jer]

Of which there were none, which is part of the problem.

Bullshit. Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips were registered candidates who each had polls exceeding 10% at various points. Just because you didn’t personally like them doesn’t mean they weren’t legitimate candidates. RFK Jr. and Cornel West also started off as Democratic primary candidates until they saw that Biden was going to try to ignore the primary process, so they went independent. If Biden had engaged as was his obligation, maybe they would have stayed within the Democratic primary apparatus and wouldn’t be pulling votes away as independents.

Team Biden willfully ignored these opponents and tried to get states to drop their primaries and throw all their delegates to Biden without due process, which was a violation of party rules and was possibly illegal. Pretending this isn’t true doesn’t actually make it false.

 

[Mosh]

Cornel West

Marianne Williamson

Dean Phillips

RFK Jr

 

[LooseCannon]

I don't think it's illegal for a private party to determine their own method for selecting a nominee.

 

[bearfan]

Has Trumpy even announced a VP yet?

Not yet .. I assume he will right before the convention

 

[Jer]

(derisive GIFs that completely dodge the points made)

You sure seem to enjoy “othering” and prejudicial behavior when it doesn’t apply to one of your pet social justice causes. Can’t say I’m surprised by how much of a fucking hypocrite you are. Or how much of a tool.

 

[Jer]

I don't think it's illegal for a private party to determine their own method for selecting a nominee.

But it can be illegal to violate their own established methods. Phillips won a case in Wisconsin over this, and New Hampshire seriously considered suing the DNC over their calling the state’s primary “meaningless”, since this may have violated state law.

 

[LooseCannon]

You sure seem to enjoy “othering” and prejudicial behavior when it doesn’t apply to one of your pet social justice causes. Can’t say I’m surprised by how much of a fucking hypocrite you are. Or how much of a tool.

This isn't appropriate. Mosh might have laughed at your suggestions, but he didn't insult you directly. Don't start fights, which is a forum rule that you are well aware of.

 

[LooseCannon]

But it can be illegal to violate their own established methods. Phillips won a case in Wisconsin over this, and New Hampshire seriously considered suing the DNC over their calling the state’s primary “meaningless”, since this may have violated state law.

The intermingling of the two party system with the instruments of the state has really bothered me. Feels like they should either be private institutions or public institutions, not something inbetween. Anyway.

 

[bearfan]

But it can be illegal to violate their own established methods. Phillips won a case in Wisconsin over this, and New Hampshire seriously considered suing the DNC over their calling the state’s primary “meaningless”, since this may have violated state law.

True .. I think a lot of this is academic. There are really 3 options for someone besides Biden
1) He dies .. ideally not
2) He pulls his name, in which case it will be decided at the convention (and he would really need to withdraw before then. Of course delegates will skew left and who knows who they will nominate ... that would not be good for the party
3) A revolt at the convention (highly unlikely and that would lead to legal challenges based on state laws/party rules, etc.)


He clearly had a horrible debate performance .. but with the exception of Biden's death or some severe medical problem .. 99% sure he will be the one on the ballot