USA Politics

I thought Rubio couldn’t be VP because they both officially live in Florida.
 
Maybe the convicted felon will relocate? Imagine if he makes Little Marco move, how humiliating that might be.
 
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LooseCannon said:
Maybe the convicted felon will relocate? Imagine if he makes Little Marco move, how humiliating that might be.
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I guess this is a little more convoluted than first thought:
www.forbes.com

Trump Floats Rubio For VP—But The 12th Amendment Could Prevent That

Trump name-dropped Rubio, among three others, as a possible VP pick on Thursday.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

An elector can't vote for more than one person from their own state between the president and vice president, per the 12th Amendment. So if Trump/Rubio won by more than 30 electoral votes, it wouldn't matter, because they could just not vote for Rubio in Florida and still have the necessary electoral votes. But the safer path would be for one of them to relocate, except Rubio can't really do that if he wants to keep his Senate seat in case Trump loses, and yet Trump isn't going to move instead of Rubio because that would make Rubio look like the alpha dog.

Another out of the box option is to change Florida law to allow them to select electors who don't live in Florida in order to get around the restriction, but that one feels odd.
 
Trump has homes in NYC and NJ, so the most straightforward thing would be for him to switch his residence over. Not sure what paperwork he needs to establish residency somewhere else but I imagine registering to vote in a state besides FL is probably enough.

The alpha move is certainly making Little Marco move. The Alpha+ move is making him move and then selecting someone else for VP.

I don't think it's going to be Rubio though.
 
I had to google JD Vance and then watched him vs Wolf Blitzer. Term banana republic was mentioned at least once. Convicted felon at least thrice. Vance brought up the fact that they drew 34 felonies out of a single violation and a similar case about Hilary Clinton for which she received a mere fine from FEC.

Anyway, this is far from over, there will be motions and an appeal and in the end, NY Governor will pardon him, no matter what she says right now, otherwise you'll have the entire collective north, south and east mocking about Convinced Felon Sitting President Trump. No way US will ever leave its president serve as a convicted felon.

To conclude, in Trump's case un-felon him is an act of human and do-able, but un-dementia Joe is an act of god and could take some wait :D

 
Yeah maybe who knows. I'm too cynical and you seem to put too much faith on American institutions. I wouldn't mind either scenario. Both show a nice stance. Not pardon him as a respect to judiciary system and pardon him as a more pragmatic approach.
Let's see, first the case needs to stand against the appeal and then Trump needs to be reelected, neither of which is certain, let alone both.
 
The appeals process is going to be really tricky. I don't really think higher NY courts are going to overturn the guilty verdict. It would also be highly unusual for SCOTUS, even this SCOTUS, to step in IMO. The election complicates things, but I reckon that, if he wins, any sentence can be delayed until he leaves office. If he loses, he remains a private citizen and is subject to the legal process.

I actually think it's really important that, if the American voters decide to make Trump president again, the rest of the world knows that electing a convicted felon as president was acceptable to the American public.
 
So we have an uncharacteristically early presidential debate coming up next week and I'm curious how folks think it will play out.

IMO it is shaping up to be the most consequential debate at least in my lifetime. Just thinking about the last three presidential campaigns:

The 2020 debates were really bad for Trump, but I would argue that his campaign was dead in the water for months before that.

Hillary beat Trump at all three debates in 2016, but obviously that wasn't enough for her to win. Still, even if she had won I don't think anyone would have pointed to the debates making any difference one way or another.

Romney beat Obama in the first debate in 2012, arguably the only one that mattered, and still lost the election. IMO more than anything else, I think this is and 2016 are the biggest pieces of evidence that debates generally don't make a difference one way or another.

But here will be a different story. It's early enough in the campaign and given the situation with both candidates, it could be a real make or break moment for either. It's Biden's opportunity to significantly weaken the narrative that he's too old and feeble to do the job, but at the same time if he blows it there could be real panic leading up to the Democratic convention. I think a lot of people are rightfully expecting Trump to do poorly since he has never had a good debate, but I also wouldn't underestimate him.

The timing is also interesting not just with the recent Trump conviction but he is also beginning to open up a lead in polling and in key rust belt states (and is also closing the gap in the sunbelt states). IMO if Biden makes a good impression and wins the narrative war, I could easily see the polling continue to shift in his favor and sit around Biden +5 nationally until the election, which is enough for him to eek out a win. He could also open up a larger lead, but right now the priority needs to be keeping his campaign competitive, which is in the neighborhood of Biden +5 IMO.
 
Mosh said:
It's Biden's opportunity to significantly weaken the narrative that he's too old and feeble to do the job, but at the same time if he blows it there could be real panic leading up to the Democratic convention.
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I think this is the key point. If we get SOTU Biden showing up for the debate, it will be a very good thing for him. If we get zombie Biden at the debate and his polling takes another hit, then it’s panic time.

Having the mic deactivated may actually work in Trump’s favor, since any outbursts won’t be as noticeable and he’ll seem less nuts to persuadable voters.
 
Biden was pretty good in the debates in the 2020 cycle. He's not the strongest debater by any metric, but he isn't gonna be shambling and tripping over his words, either, like Trump spends time suggesting.
 
After SOTU I wouldn't be surprised if Biden delivers something good. Some sources suggest there's a secret plan that the top 4 Democrats (the two ex presidents, plus Pelosi plus Schumer) would talk Biden out if he performs badly and that's why the first debate is so early so to gauge his fitness prior the Convention.
 
Well the thing that I think a lot of folks are missing is that each Trump voter can only vote once. Yes they will eat up anything and yes they will continue to be galvanized by convictions/etc but unless he actually adds voters it doesn’t matter. And right now there’s reason to think he may be losing voters.

____no5 said:
Some sources
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Lol.
 
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