USA Politics

[Travis The Dragon]

What I'm thinking is let the impeachment wars begin! Let's just have everyone go after everyone else. I do wonder what the results would be if everyone in the political system was investigated for criminal activity.

 

[____no5]

No enough with this BS.

 

[Flaming Blimp Crash]

That's also why you're going to see Republicans run against his age and the economy rather than try to run against him as a person. He just isn't that type of politician.

Debt ceiling negotiations with Trump on the sidelines screaming to let it default probably doesn't give them much leverage there. But, that will probably be forgotten by next month.

 

[Mosh]

Well if the country defaults the economic ramifications will last into the next election and Trump is probably counting on voters to blame Biden for that, he’s probably right.

 

[Mosh]

DeSantis is in! Tim Scott is in! Big week in primary news.

DeSantis is obviously the most hyped non-Trump candidate but his campaign so far has been a disaster and it hasn't even officially started. He clearly isn't ready for primetime, he's gone way too far to the right (even to the right of Trump) to be a palatable general election candidate, and I don't see Trump supporters crossing over to vote DeSantis when they can just vote for Trump again. Even if Trump was taken out of the race somehow, I think there's too much bad blood already that DeSantis wouldn't be seen as the alternative.

One interesting comparison I've seen is Obama 2008. It makes sense. You have a huge underdog (DeSantis/Obama) going up against a party titan who most are already assuming will take the nomination (Trump/Clinton). The problem is that Obama had a pretty low national profile going into 2008,he kinda came out of nowhere and excited people because of that. DeSantis has done everything possible to make himself a household name before he even announces and has made national news with a lot of controversial legislation. He seems pretty socially awkward and impressions of him as a person are starting to form. That's not really what you want when we haven't even had a primary contest yet. All of those things considered, I'm extremely skeptical that he will be able to mount an actual competition against Trump.

Tim Scott is yet another long shot candidate, although I have to say I'm pretty impressed with his campaign launch. Unlike others (Haley, Hutchinson, Christie), it seems like he's actually serious about winning. I could see his optimistic message being an interesting contrast to Trump and DeSantis and he seems like an obvious pick for the neverTrumpers to coalesce around if DeSantis implodes. He could really consolidate the vote, but a lot has to happen for that to even be a remote possibility, including everybody else dropping out. I think he's worth keeping an eye on though and won't count him out yet (basically the only other candidates I can say that about are Desantis (barely) and Trump).

At the end of the day, two things need to happen for this to even be a legitimate fight against Trump. The first is that candidates need to go after Trump directly. They need to say explicitly that he can't win against Biden, otherwise this is a waste of time and nobody is going to vote for an alternative. The second is that Trump needs to lose Iowa and/or New Hampshire. If I were Scott or DeSantis, I would be pouring money into those first two states. The Iowa win is how Obama won and if somebody besides Trump wins that state, the presumed nominee status goes away and people will start considering voting for someone else. But they need to be convinced it's real first.

 

[Diesel 11]

Christ. The last thing I want is to see the whole country turn into the nightmare that DeSantis has built in Florida.

 

[Yax]

Get ready for the best impressions, tremendous impressions on the reactions to the announcement by DeSaster on his failing Presedential run.

 

[Flaming Blimp Crash]

It appears a deal to avoid default has been reached. I'm surprised as apparently the deadline was June 5th and I thought negotiations would go to the last second. Question now is who caved between Biden and McCarthy?

 

[LooseCannon]

It looks like they both moved. There's definitely not billions and billions of cuts like the hardliners wanted, but there's a no new spending pledge (outside of the military) apparently.

 

[Yax]

It looks like they both moved. There's definitely not billions and billions of cuts like the hardliners wanted, but there's a no new spending pledge (outside of the military) apparently.

It covers two years of lending, thwarting additional blackmail until after the election.

 

[Mosh]

We also need to see how the house vote shakes out. It’s looking like McCarthy is going to lose quite a few republicans on this, which will make it look more like a victory for Biden. Progressives may complain about the deal, but ultimately the serious members of the caucus (i.e. AOC) will fall in line.

Frankly this seems like a pretty mild deal that would be struck quickly under a competent speaker without an insane caucus. They both moved, but this has become an existential problem for McCarthy more than anything.

 

[Mosh]

Mike Pence is in! This has got to be the biggest head scratcher candidacy so far. At least with other low polling candidates (Haley, Scott, Hutchinson, etc) you could make the case that they're running to build their brand, sell books, or secure a cabinet/VP slot in a Trump/DeSantis administration, I'm not sure what Pence is doing here. He's not going to be VP again, he doesn't really need to build up a brand, he has basically 0 shot at winning the nomination considering most of Trump's base hates him. I've yet to see a compelling reason for why he is in the race, so if anybody has one I'm all ears!

If nothing else, it seems like the GOP has decided that they're OK with a crowded field to give Trump the nomination once again.

 

[Diesel 11]

I've yet to see a compelling reason for why he is in the race, so if anybody has one I'm all ears!

Maybe he's trying to appeal to the milder conservative crowd that's not as on-board with the wilder Trump base? This is definitely gonna be interesting.

 

[Jer]

I've yet to see a compelling reason for why he is in the race, so if anybody has one I'm all ears!

The only calculation I can see here is if enough people decide to abandon Trump because of his legal woes, Pence can claim co-ownership of Trump's policies while still appealing to conservatives who believe in democracy. The problem is that the die-hard Trumpers hate his guts at this point, so I don't see any path to the nomination for him.

If someone other than Trump gets the nomination, it's going to be because enough Republicans who support Trump weakly decide that he has a fundamental electability problem and they end up coalescing around a single opponent who promotes similar policies without having all the baggage. I just can't see Pence being that guy.

The other fun thing to think about is how many of these Republican candidates are really just running for Trump's VP slot. Nikki Haley is, for sure...

 

[Mosh]

Chris Christie is in! While he has no real shot at the nomination, his motivations seem a lot more clear. It seems like he's in this race solely to take down Trump and possibly also thinks that if he can contribute to a Trump loss in New Hampshire,* it will prevent him from getting the nomination. This might be true, but where Christie starts to disconnect from reality is the thought that he would be the post Trump candidate that voters coalesce around. The other issue is that thanks to RNC rules, Christie probably won't even get to debate, and if he did there's no guarantee Trump would debate either. I can see Christie as a disruptive force in a vacuum, but there's too much standing in the way.

*It looks like he is going to skip campaigning in Iowa and camp out in New Hampshire. This makes sense, his more moderate blue state Republican governor and brash east coast personality is going to play better in NH. We've also seen previous eventual nominees skip an early state (or three in Biden's case) in order to have a better showing in a more favorable state to build momentum. It worked for McCain in 2008 and obviously worked out really well for Biden in 2020. It's not a bad strategy but it requires a candidate who can appeal to a bigger portion of the base, which Christie does not.

Re Mike Pence:

The only calculation I can see here is if enough people decide to abandon Trump because of his legal woes, Pence can claim co-ownership of Trump's policies while still appealing to conservatives who believe in democracy.

This seems to be the most common theory.

The problem is that the die-hard Trumpers hate his guts at this point, so I don't see any path to the nomination for him.

This makes it a nonstarter. Clearly the people on Pence's team understand that? It's just a huge head scratcher for me.

As far as VP candidates go, I'm also skeptical about that. Trump isn't going to pick anybody from the current field to be VP, he's going to want a complete loyalist (and someone who is as batshit crazy as he is). DeSantis? I dunno, Hayley seems like a sensible option but I could see DeSantis picking a white man just to go all in on the anti-woke thing.

 

[Jer]

It looks like [Christie] is going to skip campaigning in Iowa and camp out in New Hampshire. This makes sense, his more moderate blue state Republican governor and brash east coast personality is going to play better in NH.

Yes, but let’s not forget that Christie did the exact same thing in 2016, holding over 100 town halls and spending 70 days in the state, and he wound up finishing sixth(!!) in NH behind Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Bush, and Rubio.

This might be true, but where Christie starts to disconnect from reality is the thought that he would be the post Trump candidate that voters coalesce around.

If Trump somehow completely implodes, like winding up in a state penitentiary during the campaign, then many things become possible. In the hypothetical where you had a Trumpless field and Republicans were eager enough to win the general election to actually be pragmatic in their choice, then who knows. But right now they’re still the dog who caught the car on abortion, still in denial over Trump’s loss in 2020, and still frothing at the mouth to restrict the rights of a mostly socially libertarian nation, and they haven’t figured out that this completely sinks them with independents and swing voters. And they haven’t even been successfully painted as the anti-democracy party yet in the public consciousness, which they totally could and should be.

This makes it a nonstarter. Clearly the people on Pence's team understand that? It's just a huge head scratcher for me.

Maybe they’re hoping for Trump to be taken off the board somehow, as considered above. In a Trumpless primary Pence maybe has more of a shot, because the hardcore Trumpers might have low turnout. But with Trump in the race? No way.

As far as VP candidates go, I'm also skeptical about that. Trump isn't going to pick anybody from the current field to be VP, he's going to want a complete loyalist (and someone who is as batshit crazy as he is).

Well, Haley basically asked Trump’s permission before she ran, and he gave his blessing. And she hasn’t really opened up on him directly, she’s just made vague comments about leaving certain things behind and moving forward. If she doesn’t go after Trump directly and has a good showing in SC but clearly isn’t going to win, I could see Trump cutting a deal with her to get out of the race and endorse him in exchange for VP or a high level cabinet position.

Tim Scott might also be sort of running for VP if he doesn’t catch fire, but in his case it would be VP to a Trump alternative who manages to pull off a coup.

However it plays out it should be interesting, even if it just winds up being Trump redux.

 

[Mosh]

I think there's a long line of VP candidates before we get to Haley: Kristi Noem, Kari Lake, MTG... Hayley getting out of the race doesn't really help Trump at all and if anything Trump benefits from a crowded field. Maybe she thinks she can get a VP slot, but I don't see it happening. Trump is also 100% not going to bring in anybody who condemned him for actions on 1/6, which Hayley did.

Every Trump alternative is making the same calculation I think. At some point his going to implode, he will be taken out of the race, and someone will be there to pick up the mantel. Either he doesn't make it to Iowa or he loses badly in Iowa and New Hampshire and people start taking other candidates seriously. I think it's certainly possible, but I seriously doubt that Christie or Pence are going to be that alternative candidate. Honestly, I forgot Christie placed 6th in NH because I forgot he even made it that far before dropping out.

I take Tim Scott more seriously than the other candidates simply because he is running a more serious campaign. Whether that translates into results remain to be seen, but if he makes a strong impression in Iowa he could be well positioned for a big upset.

 

[stvn1974]

Trump has been indicted on 37 counts.

 

[Jer]

Trump has been indicted on 37 counts.

Yeah. Unfortunately, even if he’s convicted, the next Republican elected president will probably pardon him, if Trump is still alive at that point.

State charges in NY and potentially GA are more interesting, since a president can’t pardon state convictions — that would have to come from the governors of the individual states, and that would be less likely.

 

[Mosh]

A lot of the takes on the indictment I’m hearing feel a little short sighted to me. This is really bad for Trump and, assuming Biden is the nominee and makes it to Election Day, further torpedoes his chances of winning a general election. Voters have shown, especially in the last few cycles, that they do not like candidates with ethical problems/candidates facing legal jeopardy. The only reason Trump won in the first place is that voters perceived his opponent as more corrupt (remember that going into Election Day people genuinely thought Clinton might be indicted, well now we have a candidate who has been indicted). That’s not going to happen with Biden. I really think his chances of winning in key states like Wisconsin and Georgia are gone. If anything Trump might give up more states.