USA Politics

Mosh said:
The above is why Trump is bound to lose in a landslide imo. A lot of otherwise conservative/apolitical people are just sick of this guy.
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That’s my hope. I don’t want to live in a version of America that is good (and only good) to white males (even though I’m a white male). It’s shit. I like people, all kinds of people, and cannot live with the idea that my action or inaction could actively make the lives of others worse off. My son is young but I’m trying to encourage him to be a bit more interested than I ever was.

edit: “young” as in almost 19
 
"I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!"
- Trump


Don't be afraid? He has had access to experimental drugs and a private hospital wing. Nobody in the world has had more resources at hand to personally combat it. And just because that allowed him to get out of top, then it's back to the usual "it's just a cold, it's just a flu". We're past a million COVID related deaths. A reasonable rate of fear is good. It keeps you on your toes and make you take adequate steps to counter the risks. We're not at a stage where we're supposed to tell everybody to chill. What's more, is if you get a really serious case of Covid, just because you survive don't mean you get back to normal. That can be years away, if you ever get fully restored.
 
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I still say don't count your chickens until Trump has declared that they're not chickens, it's just a lie the liberals have told you. If people voted for Trump to stick it to the man (not sure which man, just any man, really) they'll still vote for him.
 
Mosh said:
538 gives Biden a 78% chance of winning, the model also takes time into account (it handicaps with the assumption of the race tightening over time). It’s also looking like Biden has a good chance of winning Nebraska’s second district, which will give him the 270th vote in the case of a 269-269 situation, so that already low-possibility scenario looks to be out. I’m guessing that after a couple good debates, Biden is going to be in the 80s, which is the opposite trajectory from what Clinton did in 2016.
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Well after one debate and Trump’s weekend in the hospital, Biden is in the low 80s on 538’s election forecast. If nothing changes, he will probably have a 90% chance of winning on Election Day. There was also a recent poll of PA that showed Biden about 4 points beyond the margin of error. He also has a lead among senior citizens that might put Florida in his grasp. This is all before polling has really adjusted to reflect the Covid diagnosis and even the debate.

One thing that separates this election from 2016 is that it’s extremely stable. Biden’s polling lead hasn’t changed and there aren’t really any undecided voters. Don’t count chickens before they hatch, but I expect election night to be way more boring than the hype suggests (and for what 2020 has given us so far).
 
A website I really like, www.electoral-vote.com, tracks on the theory that the only thing that really matters is where the state polls land, and they have pointed out that Hillary was really stable until the Comey letter:

ElectoralVote

Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls.
www.electoral-vote.com www.electoral-vote.com

Basically, those lines are tracking the number of electoral votes where polling indicates the winner beyond the margin of error.
 
LooseCannon said:
A website I really like, www.electoral-vote.com, tracks on the theory that the only thing that really matters is where the state polls land, and they have pointed out that Hillary was really stable until the Comey letter:

ElectoralVote

Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls.
www.electoral-vote.com www.electoral-vote.com

Basically, those lines are tracking the number of electoral votes where polling indicates the winner beyond the margin of error.
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What is interesting, though, is that she was stable below 270, i.e. there are states where the polls were close to 50-50 then, but are in Biden's favour now.

I haven't followed the state-by-state polls, anyone who has can probably tell us which states were "open" throughout the 2016 campaign but have Biden at +5% or more now.
 
Thanks for the link. Don’t have time to read all of that now but it has been bookmarked.

It’s true that the Comey letter probably prevented a Clinton win. I wonder what event short of him dying could torpedo Biden’s chances in the same way. The Comey letter reinforced a scandal that was already giving Clinton a hard time, I’m not sure if there’s an equivalent for Biden. Furthermore, it would have to make some Biden voters change their mind last minute, rather than undecideds coming home to Trump like in 2016.
 
Dr. Eddies Wingman said:
What is interesting, though, is that she was stable below 270, i.e. there are states where the polls were close to 50-50 then, but are in Biden's favour now.

I haven't followed the state-by-state polls, anyone who has can probably tell us which states were "open" throughout the 2016 campaign but have Biden at +5% or more now.
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PA is the reddest of the blue wall states lost by Clinton in 16 and is polling anywhere from +5 to +10 for Biden. In 16, these states were much closer in the poll usually with about 5 percent undecided and a couple points for a third party.
 
VP debate was boring, which is probably what it needed to be. I expect the narrative will be around the stark contrast from the presidential debate, and probably lots of lines about how Pence vs Harris would be a much better presidential matchup. I didn’t really care much about the question evading because they were debating each other on policy for the most part. It was shockingly normal.

It probably ends up in a draw. Harris played it safe which is probably the smart thing to do when you’re sitting on a 7 point lead. Pence spent a lot of time talking about coal /fracking/etc which is probably the smart thing to do when you’re losing in the rust belt. As usual, though, the VP debate doesn’t matter.
 
Pence’s brand is false sincerity. He will say the most brazenly false or hypocritical things and deliver them with complete superficial conviction. Perfect Trump toadie in that respect, but he’s also perfectly positioned for whatever happens next in the Republican Party. If they stay Trumpist, then he’s the proven loyalist. If they rebound to something more “classic Republican”, then he’s an old guard party man who did what he had to do to serve his president and his country, but now he can return to normal order.

Harris is a little too smarmy for her own good, and she dodged her fair share of questions. I continue to be underwhelmed by her, but I guess she’ll do.
 
Fair point.

In other news, Donald didn't want to have a debate via video link, and the next debate is therefore postponed. I guess it will be postponed further or cancelled if Trump can't provide a negative Covid test first.
 
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