USA Politics

Michigan will be one to watch for a variety of reasons. Hillary narrowly lost to Bernie there and then went on to narrowly lose to Trump.
 
Bernie winning there will also undermine the idea that Joe is the right person to take back the Rust Belt.
 
I expect Biden to outperform Clinton in the rust belt, which means Bernie is also going to have to improve his standing there. In general, Bernie cannot win unless he finds a way to expand his coalition.
 
Mosh said:
I expect Biden to outperform Clinton in the rust belt, which means Bernie is also going to have to improve his standing there. In general, Bernie cannot win unless he finds a way to expand his coalition.
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I think that is really his problem ... he is a very known commodity and there is not much room for him to expand ... also it seems his base it turning out in at least slightly different numbers this time around. If he gets blow out in Michigan, it is all over .. there are just not many states left with big enough delegate counts where he is the favorite

One thing that hurt him is fewer caucuses this time around .. those always favor candidates with more passionate voters than regular primaries
 
He seems to be changing his strategy, maybe for the first time since 2016. It’s super late and I’m skeptical that it’ll be enough, but this race has taken so many twists and turns already.

Bernie is also finally going to get to debate Biden one-on-one. A Biden shalacking (not unlikely) could really make a difference.
 
Agreed completely on the caucus front. Bernie definitely needs to have strong finishes coming up or he's toasty.
 
Mosh said:
He seems to be changing his strategy, maybe for the first time since 2016. It’s super late and I’m skeptical that it’ll be enough, but this race has taken so many twists and turns already.

Bernie is also finally going to get to debate Biden one-on-one. A Biden shalacking (not unlikely) could really make a difference.
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Biden has been pretty iffy in the debates and is always prone to say something incredibly stupid
 
So far his best debate performances are ones where he stays relatively in the background and doesn’t have a slip up.

He came off well during his Super Tuesday rally though, even after being attacked by Vegans.
 
Mosh said:
So far his best debate performances are ones where he stays relatively in the background and doesn’t have a slip up.
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If Biden wins the nomination, Trump is going to have a field day with him in the debates. Biden is too gaffe prone and Trump knows how to take a slip up and run away with it. It'd be much more difficult for Trump to do his shenanigans with Bernie.
 
I disagree. Trump is also not a good debater and, like Biden, he did best during the primaries when it was a crowded stage and he could stay in the background. When he got to the general, he looked ridiculous on stage against Hillary. The problem for Hillary was that she decided to get into the mud with him and by that point everybody was used to Trump's shenanigans enough to have an opinion on him. I don't remember him really seizing on slip-ups on the debate stage in either the primary or the general.

They both have similar strengths and weaknesses. I think the biggest question is going to be whether we see high energy Joe or sleepy Joe. We've seen both throughout this process.
 
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