USA Politics

[Mosh]

Biden doesn’t need to worry about appealing to black people, that part of the Obama coalition is the reason he’s even viable right now. He needs a female running mate and a youngish woman from middle America fits the bill perfectly. Harris is a good choice but is too “coastal elite.” I don’t see either her or Booker helping in the swing states. Harris is a better AG pick anyway.

I wonder if Bernie would tap Stacy Abrams for VP to try and close the gap with black voters. Maybe even a strategy to be competitive in Georgia.

 

[Jer]

Biden doesn’t need to worry about appealing to black people

No, but he does need to worry about turning out the black vote on election day. Hillary had strong support from black voters but didn’t get them to show up. The DNC will think that a black VP will help in that regard, and they might not be wrong.

He needs a female running mate and a youngish woman from middle America fits the bill perfectly.

A female running mate won’t pull any extra 2016 Trump voters, and I don’t see how it would drive turnout in any appreciable way. If women on the ticket drove turnout, we would have had President Mondale, President McCain, and President Hillary Clinton.

Harris is a good choice but is too “coastal elite.” I don’t see either her or Booker helping in the swing states.

I don’t particularly like either of them, and the only major swing state play for a Biden nomination would be Pennsylvania. I think the VP choice will be a turnout choice, not a “win me this extra state” choice.

I wonder if Bernie would tap Stacy Abrams for VP to try and close the gap with black voters. Maybe even a strategy to be competitive in Georgia.

Wouldn’t surprise me.

 

[The Flash]

Super Tuesday suggests a repeat of 2016 to me. Biden winning big in the South due to the African-American vote. Him winning Massachusetts is the biggest indicator we can draw from today that Biden is the more likely one to win the candidacy. Bernie can't afford to lose states like Mass when he's giving up huge discrepancies in the South.

The strong African-American support for Biden just shows how little actual political engagement there is among many voters in the United States, imo. Seemingly the only appeal is that he was the Vice President to an African-American president. That's ludicrous. Unsubstantiated identity politics. I also suspect a dislike for Bernie among southern African-Americans due to his association with the "college-attending sub-urban white people", and, possibly, his irreligiosity. Another case of unsubstantiated voting if my suspections are accurate.

Obviously the Democrat establishment hasn't learned from 2016. Joe Biden is basically Hillary 2.0. They might as well have wheeled her out again.

Yep. Unsurprising, but very unfortunate. The Democratic establishment is woefully out of touch with the zeitgeist - that is, populist social upheaval of the post-recession period and the dislike toward interventionist US foreign policy of the 2000s and early 2010s. Republicans were, too, but they are more in-tune with it after Trump's election.

 

[Mosh]

Tonight was definitely an upset. Biden won in states that he wasn’t even supposed to be competitive in (Minnesota and Massachusetts) and seems to be poised to win Texas as well. Bernie is crushing in California, maybe enough to leave him with a path to victory, but the incoming states aren’t looking good (he is down some 20 points in Florida polls). We are more or less seeing the scenario LC described. The good (?) news is that Biden could come into the convention with a strong majority. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the worst case scenario is a contested convention.

I prefer Bernie (voted for him today, he won big in my state of Colorado), but I am not entirely against Biden as nominee. I still think he’s riskier, but both candidates come with pros and cons.

One pro for Biden is that having him on the top of the ticket may help make Dems competitive in more of middle America, including Senate races. Georgia and Texas might be more winnable than with a Sanders ticket. There’s also a running narrative that Biden is better for the Dems in the house, we’ll see how that plays out. I still think Trump wins Florida, but Biden has a better chance than Sanders.

There are many cons. While this is true for both candidates, age is still a major problem. It’s hard to imagine Biden going for two terms. His VP pick will be more important than normal. He is also hated by the left. If he comes in with a strong majority, it’s hard for the Bernie bros to cry foul. They have less of an argument than in 2016. The DNC stayed pretty hands off and Bernie has/had a real shot to win. Still, I worry that people will stay home again. Fortunately I think this is a risk in solidly blue states more than battlegrounds. We’ll see what happens.

 

[Forostar]

Nice to hear you voted for Bernie. I would if I could. Passionately. The progressive man is right about every subject. Lots of young people agree with him. Which is hopeful for the future.

Biden: a moderate candidate, who's not going to win from Trump. Time for something new.

 

[Black Wizard]

I worry that people will stay home again

I reckon if Bernie is the candidate then there's more chance of an improved turnout compared to 2016, which might be enough to unseat Trump.

If Biden is the candidate then it's more of the same. Trump will skewer him in the debates and Sleepy Joe will bumble his way through talking about gramophones and pony soldiers. It'll be another electoral college victory for Trump even if he has a smaller share of the popular vote.

 

[Perun]

I keep having this train of thought: I wouldn't support Sanders because I would always go for moderates, then I realise that he is actually moderate by European standards, then I think I'm not American, so whatever.

But some things remain. I don't like the way Sanders is elevated to messianic levels by some of his supporters, and I think he's too old. The former is arguably not his fault, but I have a deep mistrust, based on experience, towards people who are being sanctified; there will inevitably be a let down moment and he will draw excessive hate on himself for every promise he can't fulfil. As for the age thing, I read somewhere that he could use this to build up his vice president to run after his first term is up. We would see if that happens.

I would instinctively support Bloomberg. I agree with most of his stances, but those I disagree with, I seriously disagree with. So I'm glad that this election really isn't my business. I have a hard enough time trying to figure out who to vote for in my own country.

 

[Forostar]

Sanders is very compassionate. The most. He addresses matters the best. Knows the most. Has done the most. Has the best plans. He cares.
I do not mind he is old. Let him be old. This is probably why most of us (excluding myself) thought he'd never get far. Well he did get far. He is real.

I can see why people become excited, enthusiastic about Sanders. Trump also has a fair amount of enthusiastic supporters. How can this be a problem, if the candidate is good? To me It's all about issues and how they are addressed. Rest is of minor importance.

Would a President get sick or ill (for a while) during his presidency ... what would happen? Vice President takes over. Is that so terrible?
The issues would still be addressed.

 

[Diesel 11]

Sanders is very compassionate. The most. He addresses matters the best. Knows the most. Has done the most. Has the best plans. He cares.
I do not mind he is old. Let hem be old. This probably why most of us (excluding myself) thought he'd never get far. Well he did get far. He is real.

Bloomberg has dirty hands. Glad he's gone.

Agreed. I cannot stand Bloomberg and if it were him against Trump, I don’t know if I could choose between a billionaire asshole and a millionaire lunatic. Thankfully there’s about no way he’s gonna win now.

Bernie is easily one of the most honest and, like you said, compassionate politicians we’ve had in a long time. I voted for him last night and I hope to vote for him again in November.

 

[Perun]

You don't have to get defensive towards me. I'm not telling anybody not to vote for Sanders, I'm just sharing my thoughts.

 

[Forostar]

Just sharing my thoughts about these thoughts, and about Sanders. No worries.

 

[Diesel 11]

^same.

 

[bearfan]

That should easily be the end of Warren, finishing 3rd in her home state is pretty pathetic.

Bernie's problem is he does really poorly with minorities and not really all that well with women (all the Bernie Bros stuff does not help much). Guessing Warren drops out as well Bloomberg.

 

[Yax]

I reckon if Bernie is the candidate then there's more chance of an improved turnout compared to 2016, which might be enough to unseat Trump.

If Biden is the candidate then it's more of the same. Trump will skewer him in the debates and Sleepy Joe will bumble his way through talking about gramophones and pony soldiers. It'll be another electoral college victory for Trump even if he has a smaller share of the popular vote.

Sums up my thoughts as well.

 

[bearfan]

Bloomberg out .. endorsing Biden

 

[The Flash]

From what I see, Biden is winning for three reasons:

• The African-American vote favors him due to his association with Obama. This is true to a greater extent in the South, but still holds water elsewhere.
• The centrist vote opposed to the tax policies and expansion of the federal government of Sanders, as well as the centre-left vote that's skeptical of the practicality of Sanders' plans have coalesced around Biden. Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out before Super Tuesday proved quite decisive for Biden.
• The familiar moderate candidate always has an edge over the "radical" among people who are doing "okay" from an economic and social standpoint. The radical always has to connect with the people to a greater extent than does the familiar moderate candidate.

All of these applied to Hillary in the previous election, so very little seems to have changed. For all the talks about Trump defeating Hillary leading to a move further left among the Democratic circles and Bernie's movement gaining more momentum, it just seems like a repeat thus far.

Another repeat is that the US is heading toward yet another election where I strongly dislike both candidates and the decision is one of lesser of two evils. Shame, the Democratic field had a far greater number of appealing candidates this time around.

 

[Mosh]

I reckon if Bernie is the candidate then there's more chance of an improved turnout compared to 2016, which might be enough to unseat Trump.

If Biden is the candidate then it's more of the same. Trump will skewer him in the debates and Sleepy Joe will bumble his way through talking about gramophones and pony soldiers. It'll be another electoral college victory for Trump even if he has a smaller share of the popular vote.

We will have to find some numbers, but Biden was arguing that he brought out more people who typically don’t vote last night. Bernie’s whole strategy is to bring in new voters, but so far that hasn’t been happening. He does appeal to young people the most, problem is that young people reliably don’t vote. There are significant circumstantial differences between Clinton and Biden, for one thing he isn’t nearly as weak of a candidate (but not as strong as Bernie granted).

I’m baffled that Warren is still in the race. She should’ve dropped out a week ago. Her still being in probably cost Bernie victories in Mass and maybe other states. Now she has no path forward and is probably going to be persona non grata among progressives.

I would instinctively support Bloomberg

This surprises me, especially when there is a large variety of less controversial moderates. Not an attack, but I’m curious what the line of thinking is here.

Personally I would struggle to justify voting for Bloomberg even in the general. He’s very much another side of the Trump coin. Further, he essentially attempted to buy the election. He got in super late, did 0 actual campaigning, his entire strategy was to dump millions of dollars on ads (if you live in a Super Tuesday state, you are probably nostalgic for a time when there were TV ads unrelated to Bloomberg). If the general election came down to a president who was clobbered in the popular vote vs a guy who paid his way to the nomination, you’d have a hard time convincing me that America had any legitimacy left as a democratic system.

 

[The Flash]

I’m baffled that Warren is still in the race. She should’ve dropped out a week ago. Her still being in probably cost Bernie victories in Mass and maybe other states.

This is definitely going to tarnish her image. Pretty much playing spoiler to Bernie's candidacy due to her refusal to admit that she couldn't generate the type of momentum Bernie has. She definitely cost Bernie the victory in Massachusetts, hard to imagine that portion of the vote going to anyone else but Bernie had she not been in the race. Took 10 delegates in Minnesota, too.

 

[Perun]

This surprises me, especially when there is a large variety of less controversial moderates. Not an attack, but I’m curious what the line of thinking is here.

Tactical, mostly. Of the moderates, I had the impression that he's the one who had the best chance and means to hit Trump where it hurts. But as I said that was my gut reaction. After looking deeper into his stances, I found myself agreeing with most, but finding some deal breakers, especially in the fields of law enforcement of national security. I can't work out any consistency in his foreign political position either. So with him out of the race, I guess I would have to be a cautious and mistrusting Sanders supporter, because I don't see Biden beating Trump. If the Democrats elected him, it would probably be the dumbest thing they did since, well, electing Hillary Clinton.

 

[Mosh]

That’s fair. For what it’s worth, I think Trump would crush Bloomberg. Way more of a liability than Biden.