UK Politics

LooseCannon said:
I like the word "nation" for a unique diaspora with a cultural identity that is separate to the dominant state. For example, Quebec is a unique nation within Canada.
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Native American reservations are referred to as "nations within a nation."

Also, I thought to be considered "a state" all you really needed was for other sovereign and autonomous states to recognize you as such and be willing to have diplomatic, economic, let's not forget consensual, relations with you.
 
So, bets on next prime minister? Boris 'Look at me, I'm a hilarious comedy oaf' Johnson? Will charm the pants off people who live in a world of tea parties and country fetes, although likely irritate the heck out of toff-hating populists.
 
Doubt a snap election happens. I think last year's election delivered a significant message already.

I will say this though, the anti-establishment populist movements are gaining momentum on both the right and the left. Jeremy Corbyn is riding that wave on the left, while Theresa May isn't riding it on the right. Boris Johnson might, and he probably already is, even though he's not a leader.
 
I'm not sure Boris would put his head above the parapet at the moment - although he may peer through the letterbox - as he's not widely popular outside of the traditional Conservative voter. The same goes for the likes of Michael "we're tired of experts" Gove and Jacob Rees Mogg. I reckon their plan is to wait until the initial post-Brexit tumult has subsided before making a move. In the mean time they probably want to bend the PM to their will and let her take the flak.

Another general election will undoubtedly halt the process or, if the EU allow it, prolong the negotiations as specified under Article 50. I suspect another election would lead to a Labour minority government with the SNP giving them votes on key issues in return for another fucking independence referendum. In the event of a Labour government I can't see them doing a better job than the current Conservative government. A different approach surely, but not necessarily a more effective one.
 
It's what happens when the Tory hard Brexit crowd scupper this deal that's going to make the difference. I don't think it would be clever of any of the ambitious career bunch to make a bid for leadership at the moment, no, but if the rebellion is big enough, they'll be looking for a new leader regardless. There's already stuff about betrayals flying around all over social media.

I don't see Labour doing a thing, they'd be happy to stay in the shadows eating popcorn, unless there's a new Blairite resurgence. Labour is in a dodgy position over Brexit too. I genuinely think a lot of them don't really want Brexit, or don't want a hard Brexit, but Corbyn knows they'll never be forgiven in many old ex-industrial areas if they come out as a Remain party. It's really wrong. Nobody other than the SNP and maybe the handful of Lib Dems left will take the lead on either a soft Brexit or a new Remain bid. You'd think that referendum majority was much bigger than it actually was.
 
Brigantium said:
if the rebellion is big enough, they'll be looking for a new leader regardless.
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David Davis - dumb name - might make a bid for it, but he was the guy who lost to David Cameron a long time ago. The Conservative members didn't think he was the right guy then, so why would they now?

Brigantium said:
Corbyn knows they'll never be forgiven in many old ex-industrial areas if they come out as a Remain party.
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Corbyn was always anti-EU. I reckon he toned down those sentiments when he became party leader as he thought the country would vote to remain. Since the referendum he's shifted back to his natural stance and isn't opposing Brexit. You're probably right about the voters in the ex-industrial areas as they are Labour's core support, but I think Corbyn draws a lot of support from pro-EU millennial types too (the sort of people who go to Glastonbury) so he's caught between a rock and a hard place on Brexit. His poor handling of antisemitism in the Labour Party doesn't help his chances of becoming PM with a majority either.
 
My longstanding opinion is that the old Labour coalition is breaking apart and the party needs to make a serious decision on its future. Right now it's trying to hold its old voting bloc without expanding and it's not working very well for them.
 
I don't honestly know where they'd go. The business-friendly Blair camp upset the old heartlands too, although they'd be popular in better off areas elsewhere in the country which are looking for a good opposition party. Ex industrial areas are more populist-right now, and it's a common cultural thing for people in those areas who achieve comfortably-off status and buy new estate houses to vote Conservative as a sort of badge of respectability. It doesn't help when the electoral boundaries have been fiddled with. I somehow live in a Conservative constituency, along with a semi-rural area, a sprawling mess of multiple new housing estates, and a hippie town that's seriously old-school liberal and usually Lib Dem supporting. These places have zero in common with each other.
 
Unbelievable. The PM has gone her cabinet to toe the line and they've supported the Brexit deal. Now Jacob Rees Mogg (a vocal supporter of a hard Brexit) has written to Conservative MPs outlining his objections to the agreement and urging them to reject the deal. There are also rumours swirling about no confidence votes as early as tomorrow. There's no way that Parliament will agree to this deal.
 
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