Russia invades Ukraine

News had it that Russia wouldn't refuse peace negotiations with the USA, if offered by the USA. That's what Lawrow got quoted.
 
Really interesting. Germany has shipped the Iris-T SLM anti rocket system to Ukraine. Egypt was scheduled to take delivery of these modules but agreed to allow them to be shipped to Ukraine. Top of the line defense systems for the capital.
 
That's entirely consistent with France's previously stated nuclear policy. Their nukes are intended only for use against Metropolitan France. Which means if you nuke Reunion, they'll not even launch.
 
Yes, nobody here disagrees with that. I'm not sure why you posted it other than to be angry at some think tank. I'm gonna remind about this line from the rules:

LooseCannon said:
In order to encourage quality discussion, moderators may delete any post of non-substantial content. This includes posts containing just emoticons, one or two words ("Yes!", "I agree!"), or posts that contain simply a link with no comment from the user on the subject matter. Posters who violate this rule repeatedly will be subject to the moderation process.
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Going forward I'll delete links that don't further the discussion and are presented without commentary. Maidenfans is a discussion forum, not a link/tweet dump.
 
Thank you.

I’m curious what the experts/more informed European members think about the prospect of peace talks led by the USA. How can it be a move to save face for Putin? From my vantage point this invasion looks like a failure unless Ukraine is completely annexed by Russia, and even then it’s an embarrassment for how much the Russian military is struggling. It’s hard to imagine Putin backing down for any reason at this point.

BTW as an American this thread has been one of the more informative sources for the conflict on the internet. Thanks for cleaning up the tweet spam.
 
Well, at the end of the day, a peace will need to be negotiated with someone in power in Russia. As long as Biden is president (or, indeed, a Democrat or even a saneish Republican), it's highly unlikely the USA would allow a concession of Ukrainian territory as part of it. The most likely outcome is that Russia is allowed to exit with limited promises to allow them back into various economic systems, plus having to pay limited or even no reparations to Ukraine, in return for a total exit from Ukrainian held territory.

If I had to guess, Crimea is lost, regardless.
 
Mosh said:
I’m curious what the experts/more informed European members think about the prospect of peace talks led by the USA. How can it be a move to save face for Putin? From my vantage point this invasion looks like a failure unless Ukraine is completely annexed by Russia, and even then it’s an embarrassment for how much the Russian military is struggling. It’s hard to imagine Putin backing down for any reason at this point.
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It would save face for Putin because any negotiation at this point means there will have to be concessions made to him. He will come out of such negotiations with more to show than he had at the offset of the invasion, be it a formal recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea, a statement no to admit Ukraine into NATO, to have parts of the country disarmed, or whatever. Anything like this is something Putin can sell as a victory to his followers. His war propaganda is left intentionally vague on the precise goals, so they can be adjusted to the outcome of the war. If the Russians were able to occupy all of Ukraine, Putin could say he "reunited" Russians and Ukrainians; if only the Black Sea shore was occupied, Putin can say he reclaimed "Novorossiya"; if only Crimea and the Donbass territories are in Russian hands, he would claim he saved the Russian population there from a genocide from the Ukrainians. Even if Russian troops have to entirely withdraw, Putin can always lay the blame on a gay Jewish NATO world conspiracy against the Russian people. The sad thing is that it doesn't matter how truthful any of these claims are (none of them have the slightest shred of truth to them), or how many people actually believe them (even some members on this forum, however, do); it's about being able to claim a victory. Nothing short of a total defeat of Russia witnessed by all Russians akin to the destruction of Germany in 1945 will eradicate this lie.
 
Perun said:
It would save face for Putin because any negotiation at this point means there will have to be concessions made to him. He will come out of such negotiations with more to show than he had at the offset of the invasion, be it a formal recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea, a statement no to admit Ukraine into NATO, to have parts of the country disarmed, or whatever. Anything like this is something Putin can sell as a victory to his followers. His war propaganda is left intentionally vague on the precise goals, so they can be adjusted to the outcome of the war. If the Russians were able to occupy all of Ukraine, Putin could say he "reunited" Russians and Ukrainians; if only the Black Sea shore was occupied, Putin can say he reclaimed "Novorossiya"; if only Crimea and the Donbass territories are in Russian hands, he would claim he saved the Russian population there from a genocide from the Ukrainians. Even if Russian troops have to entirely withdraw, Putin can always lay the blame on a gay Jewish NATO world conspiracy against the Russian people. The sad thing is that it doesn't matter how truthful any of these claims are (none of them have the slightest shred of truth to them), or how many people actually believe them (even some members on this forum, however, do); it's about being able to claim a victory. Nothing short of a total defeat of Russia witnessed by all Russians akin to the destruction of Germany in 1945 will eradicate this lie.
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And we won't do that, unless he presses the big red button (and even then). But the average Russian isn't important to Putin's reign - the oligarchs and the generals and other power players know the truth, and they're the ones who will remove Putin in the end.
 
Thanks for the thoughts. All the various possibilities laid about by Perun are pretty much what makes this hard for me to wrap my head around. This war is a massive embarrassment to Putin no matter how you slice it and it has to be obvious to his inner circle, the oligarchs, and probably a lot of citizens on the ground. I’m sure the propaganda runs deep, but that only goes so far when you’re being dragged off the street to fight in a war was only supposed to last a couple weeks.
 
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