OK, everyone has nominated RTC. I'll put up a post. I expect it will be a formality.
Mafia: Game 1: Mafia wins!
- Thread starter LooseCannon
- Start date
Cornfed Hick
Ancient Mariner
IMPORTANT : PLEASE READ BEFORE VOTING!!
Obviously we should vote to kill RTC today, but before we all rush to vote and bring on the night (now the Police song is in my head) we should take this opportunity to debate who the next kill should be. We will lose a villager tonight regardless, so I think it is in the villagers' interest to openly discuss their suspicions. That will give the mafia some ammo in deciding who to kill next, but it's probably worth it. As our cop, NP, already publicly identified me as a villager, my death is probably imminent. So, while I still can, I will try to lead the discussion in a way that the villagers can trust. Here is what we know:
I strongly believe Stardust is mafia. I think he should be our next kill (after RTC). Stardust unwisely nominated Travis after Travis self-identified as the doctor, then withdrew it after he realized he'd made a mistake. I wondered whether that could just be chalked up to inattentiveness. BUT, recall that RTC ( known mafia) immediately leapt to his defense, saying that it reads like a villager. Now that we know RTC is mafia, I infer that he was trying to save Stardust from his error.
Perun is highly suspect, given his "certainty" that NP was mafia. That could just be an error in judgment -- I pushed to kill Mosh, to my regret -- but his silence in the face of questions by me and mckindog is damning.
Brigs and mckindog act like villagers, but who knows, they could just be very smart. Knick seems to have identified Perun and Dusty too -- odd that he missed the RTC thing, but that seems genuine.
Could revisit Collin. Did RTC vote to kill or acquit Collin? Maybe @LooseCannon can remind us of the voting records, as they appear to have been overwritten.
Please post your thoughts BEFORE voting.
Obviously we should vote to kill RTC today, but before we all rush to vote and bring on the night (now the Police song is in my head) we should take this opportunity to debate who the next kill should be. We will lose a villager tonight regardless, so I think it is in the villagers' interest to openly discuss their suspicions. That will give the mafia some ammo in deciding who to kill next, but it's probably worth it. As our cop, NP, already publicly identified me as a villager, my death is probably imminent. So, while I still can, I will try to lead the discussion in a way that the villagers can trust. Here is what we know:
I strongly believe Stardust is mafia. I think he should be our next kill (after RTC). Stardust unwisely nominated Travis after Travis self-identified as the doctor, then withdrew it after he realized he'd made a mistake. I wondered whether that could just be chalked up to inattentiveness. BUT, recall that RTC ( known mafia) immediately leapt to his defense, saying that it reads like a villager. Now that we know RTC is mafia, I infer that he was trying to save Stardust from his error.
Perun is highly suspect, given his "certainty" that NP was mafia. That could just be an error in judgment -- I pushed to kill Mosh, to my regret -- but his silence in the face of questions by me and mckindog is damning.
Brigs and mckindog act like villagers, but who knows, they could just be very smart. Knick seems to have identified Perun and Dusty too -- odd that he missed the RTC thing, but that seems genuine.
Could revisit Collin. Did RTC vote to kill or acquit Collin? Maybe @LooseCannon can remind us of the voting records, as they appear to have been overwritten.
Please post your thoughts BEFORE voting.
I absolutely can do this.
Vote 1: Collin
To kill: Knick, Perun, RTC
To save: Brigantium, Collin, Cornfed Hick, mckindog, Mosh, Night Prowler, Stardust
Vote 2: Mosh
To kill: Brigantium, Cornfed Hick, mckindog, Mosh, Night Prowler, RTC
To save: Collin, Knick, Stardust
Vote 3: NP
To kill: RTC
To save: everyone else.
Cornfed Hick
Ancient Mariner
Dusty voting to save in each round is interesting. Gives me some pause, but that could have just been a tactic cooked up by the mafia to deflect attention from the fact that he nominated Travis and immediately looked suspicious.
Perun's " defense" did not strike me as too persuasive. Plus, no explanation why he thought Brigs was mafia.
My preliminary guess is that the mafia are RTC (certain), Perun and Stardust. But I'm by no means certain about Perun and Stardust, and I have doubts and suspicions about all the rest of you too.
Perun's " defense" did not strike me as too persuasive. Plus, no explanation why he thought Brigs was mafia.
My preliminary guess is that the mafia are RTC (certain), Perun and Stardust. But I'm by no means certain about Perun and Stardust, and I have doubts and suspicions about all the rest of you too.
Cornfed Hick
Ancient Mariner
I'd like EVERYONE to post their suspicions, and reasons for those suspicions. (No hiding, mafia scum!). That will give the villagers the most info, and if you don't post, assume you will attract greater suspicion.
MrKnickerbocker
clap hands
This makes some serious sense and I feel like an idiot for having missed it. We're all keen to chalk Stardust's actions up to "Oh, he's Dusty," but after reading your theory, I believe it might hold some serious truth.
Agreed. If you're brandishing the word "certainty" around it seems to mean one of two things: you are the Cop, or you are Mafia. Since A is not true about Perun, I think we might have our answer.
Brigs and mckindog...have been very quiet throughout. Brigs has been more active, and I'll admit to a strange gut suspicion that she is Mafia, but I do not have any concrete theory. Mckindog is a complete wild card, I have no thoughts on his presence here one way or another, and that makes me nervous. Could be that such uncertainty is coloring my judgment.
Collin seems to be innocent by way of RTC and Perun's voting. Other than myself, who was just making a random stab in the dark during the first round, only two other people voted to lynch Collin and both of them are our prime suspects. Perun's lack of vote in Round 2 could be seen as a strategic move - waiting for everyone else's votes to come in before he made a move so as not to incriminate himself.
Given all the information, I agree that Perun seems the utmost suspicious.
My thoughts on the above:
I initially suspected Perun as I thought killing Ariana was tactical. After that, NP said he had carefully studied who had said what about whom, which led him to put Perun at No.2 on his list of suspects, following RTC. I'd be very surprised if NP didn't go on to ask LC about Perun on the night he was killed.
The Mafia have made a desperate move. RTC didn't have to jump the gun in the way he did. They could have ignored NP last night, allowing him to continue as a cop...a cop that nobody quite believed because the Mafia had spared him. They didn't. They chose to silence him, thus confirming the guilt of one of their number. I suspect that is because if he was alive they know he would be here today with the confirmed names of not one, but two, members of the Mafia. To me, this reinforces the case against Perun.
As for Mafia No.3, that's a lot more difficult. Stardust has mostly been noncommittal, which might just be his playing style, but it's also consistent with him being a member of the Mafia and not wanting to give anything much away. I'm really not sure, but in the absence of any other good leads, I'd tentatively suspect Stardust.
Collin was in part acquitted because next to nobody could see a good case against him, but also because it was his birthday!
Everyone else could go either way, except for Cornfed, who we know 100% is a villager.
I initially suspected Perun as I thought killing Ariana was tactical. After that, NP said he had carefully studied who had said what about whom, which led him to put Perun at No.2 on his list of suspects, following RTC. I'd be very surprised if NP didn't go on to ask LC about Perun on the night he was killed.
The Mafia have made a desperate move. RTC didn't have to jump the gun in the way he did. They could have ignored NP last night, allowing him to continue as a cop...a cop that nobody quite believed because the Mafia had spared him. They didn't. They chose to silence him, thus confirming the guilt of one of their number. I suspect that is because if he was alive they know he would be here today with the confirmed names of not one, but two, members of the Mafia. To me, this reinforces the case against Perun.
As for Mafia No.3, that's a lot more difficult. Stardust has mostly been noncommittal, which might just be his playing style, but it's also consistent with him being a member of the Mafia and not wanting to give anything much away. I'm really not sure, but in the absence of any other good leads, I'd tentatively suspect Stardust.
Collin was in part acquitted because next to nobody could see a good case against him, but also because it was his birthday!
Everyone else could go either way, except for Cornfed, who we know 100% is a villager.
I've just noticed the significance of one of Cornfed's comments. All villagers - if you're planning to share your thoughts, can you please do it before voting? We ideally need to pool our views on the next suspect before we move into the next night phase, when we could lose another villager. Hopefully Loosey will wait a while longer for comments and votes.
Cornfed Hick
Ancient Mariner
This isn't helpful, @Stardust. If you are a villager, you don't want us to be surprised if we accidentally kill you, as that would mean your team (the town) loses the game. Your post seems to confirm mafia. If you'd like the villagers to win, you need to give us as much info as you can. I encourage you to post a defense and your accusations, otherwise we will continue to assume you are mafia.
Stardust
Rainmaker
Well...all I really know is that RTC is up for a lynching. The rest...well, I don't know.
Sorry but I suck at this game. Maybe if we do this again at some point, I might be better at it.
But right now? Yeah...not good. I've been trying really hard to find out something but nope.
I'm just too stupid.
Sorry but I suck at this game. Maybe if we do this again at some point, I might be better at it.
But right now? Yeah...not good. I've been trying really hard to find out something but nope.
I'm just too stupid.
I made my cases for Stardust and Perun a few pages back.
With Stardust I'm probably guilty of equating his play style with his normal posting style, but there it is.
With Perun, I think the whole nominating NP, certainty on NP, no explanation on NP, NP dies when he targets Perun puts him in squarely as the prime suspect.
The rest of you...?
With Stardust I'm probably guilty of equating his play style with his normal posting style, but there it is.
With Perun, I think the whole nominating NP, certainty on NP, no explanation on NP, NP dies when he targets Perun puts him in squarely as the prime suspect.
The rest of you...?
You're assuming the game requires hard facts. It merely requires you to post your gut instincts.
Collin
Chasing Ponce De Leon's Phantoms
After rereading a lot of this. I'm starting to see a case for Perun as mafia. Because of this I'm not really suspecting Knick anymore, so he's in the clear for now. The other two mafia in my eyes are Stardust and RTC.
NP confirmed RTC as mafia, so he obviously needs to die tonight.
NP confirmed RTC as mafia, so he obviously needs to die tonight.
Cornfed Hick
Ancient Mariner
We are getting close to the sufficient number of votes to kill RTC, so before night falls, I wanted to weigh in with one last missive.
Another important fact I mined during my review of this long thread: during the first day, RTC asked Loosecannon whether the mafia could talk privately during the day. Loosecannon said no. That means the mafia were unable to coordinate their strategy during the first day. The three who voted to lynch Collin were RTC, Perun and Knick. It's possible that could be the mafia right there. This virtually rules out Collin as mafia.
Absent additional information I believe the kill queue should be:
1) RTC
2) Perun
3) Stardust
Thanks to Travis and SMX committing suicide, we don't have a lot of margin for error. So, contingency planning:
If Perun is killed and it turns out we were wrong and he is a villager, we may have only one more innocent lynch left. (I haven't done the math.) If Perun is not mafia, look to the folks who have been accusing him from the beginning - including Brigs. The following quote is either (1) exactly correct or (2) exactly what the mafia WANT us to think, i.e., misdirection.
I agree with this reasoning and am inclined to trust Brigs, and I would kill Perun next. Brigs has appeared more "villager" than anyone lately, which is either genuine or a ruse. If Perun turns out to be innocent tomorrow, and we need a Hail Mary, I think that means Brigs is probably mafia. And, if Brigs does turn out to be mafia, then I'd consider Knick and still wouldn't rule out Stardust.
Finally, assuming the math works out -- someone can confirm -- consider whether it makes sense for Stardust to quit/commit suicide (in the game, of course) at some point if he is innocent. Not now, but maybe tomorrow at the earliest. Better to rule him out and not waste a lynch on him. If we wrongly lynch him, then two villagers in a row die and we may lose. If he commits suicide, which would result in him being revealed as a villager, we would be able to turn our attention elsewhere. Just food for thought, and again, I haven't yet worked out the numbers. But under no circumstances should Stardust withdraw today before we kill RTC!
Another important fact I mined during my review of this long thread: during the first day, RTC asked Loosecannon whether the mafia could talk privately during the day. Loosecannon said no. That means the mafia were unable to coordinate their strategy during the first day. The three who voted to lynch Collin were RTC, Perun and Knick. It's possible that could be the mafia right there. This virtually rules out Collin as mafia.
Absent additional information I believe the kill queue should be:
1) RTC
2) Perun
3) Stardust
Thanks to Travis and SMX committing suicide, we don't have a lot of margin for error. So, contingency planning:
If Perun is killed and it turns out we were wrong and he is a villager, we may have only one more innocent lynch left. (I haven't done the math.) If Perun is not mafia, look to the folks who have been accusing him from the beginning - including Brigs. The following quote is either (1) exactly correct or (2) exactly what the mafia WANT us to think, i.e., misdirection.
I agree with this reasoning and am inclined to trust Brigs, and I would kill Perun next. Brigs has appeared more "villager" than anyone lately, which is either genuine or a ruse. If Perun turns out to be innocent tomorrow, and we need a Hail Mary, I think that means Brigs is probably mafia. And, if Brigs does turn out to be mafia, then I'd consider Knick and still wouldn't rule out Stardust.
Finally, assuming the math works out -- someone can confirm -- consider whether it makes sense for Stardust to quit/commit suicide (in the game, of course) at some point if he is innocent. Not now, but maybe tomorrow at the earliest. Better to rule him out and not waste a lynch on him. If we wrongly lynch him, then two villagers in a row die and we may lose. If he commits suicide, which would result in him being revealed as a villager, we would be able to turn our attention elsewhere. Just food for thought, and again, I haven't yet worked out the numbers. But under no circumstances should Stardust withdraw today before we kill RTC!
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Ariana wants me to note that she voted to kill Collin too. I must have missed it.
Cornfed Hick
Ancient Mariner
@LooseCannon (and others):
Now that I've done the math, it seems like the villagers can't afford to make any wrong guesses for the rest of the game. Once we lynch RTC and the mafia kills one of us tonight, there will be four villagers left and two mafia. Then, if we make a mistake in lynching Perun, then the mafia will kill another villager that night, leaving two and two, which means the villagers will have no way to get a majority to lynch a mafia. Do I have that right?
If that's right, then forget my contingency plan - there is no Plan B. We'll just have to roll the dice with Perun and go from there, with Stardust currently at the top of my list of candidates for the third mafioso.
EDIT: But I think the Stardust suicide gambit may still remain in play for the day after tomorrow (NOT TODAY), if in fact he knows he is innocent. Others should check my work.
Now that I've done the math, it seems like the villagers can't afford to make any wrong guesses for the rest of the game. Once we lynch RTC and the mafia kills one of us tonight, there will be four villagers left and two mafia. Then, if we make a mistake in lynching Perun, then the mafia will kill another villager that night, leaving two and two, which means the villagers will have no way to get a majority to lynch a mafia. Do I have that right?
If that's right, then forget my contingency plan - there is no Plan B. We'll just have to roll the dice with Perun and go from there, with Stardust currently at the top of my list of candidates for the third mafioso.
EDIT: But I think the Stardust suicide gambit may still remain in play for the day after tomorrow (NOT TODAY), if in fact he knows he is innocent. Others should check my work.
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Cornfed Hick
Ancient Mariner
Correction to my missive: RTC asked Loosey about daytime communications among Mafia on Day 2, when we lynched Mosh, not Day 1 as I originally said. Note that Perun didn't vote at all on Mosh. My conclusions/recommendations remain the same. Voting now - let's get on with it.
MrKnickerbocker
clap hands
I have voted. And I agree with everything Cornfed has said.
Take down RTC, take down Perun. If we're wrong about Perun, we're basically screwed anyway, but that puts Stardust or Brigs on the table.
Take down RTC, take down Perun. If we're wrong about Perun, we're basically screwed anyway, but that puts Stardust or Brigs on the table.