A small study of the topic and tour speculations in general. No offence to anyone, it's not like I haven't had anything to do with several themes mentioned below.
The Setlist Circle:
Phase 1
(starts right after the tour announcement, or even before if the rumours are strong enough, and goes on for several months)
*Setlist speculation varies from wildest dreams to rather realistic visions, based on current Maiden setlist structure trends.
*Tour announcement, artwork and whatnot may give certain clues that form the foundation for the speculated set, Flight of Icarus (confirmed) speculation 2017-18 being one very notable example of that.
*Recurring discussion considering the possibility of Alexander the Great being played, usual conclusions being:
- They will never play it live
- The odds aren't that promising, but there's a small chance that
this time it might actually get played...
- Not this time, but possibly on the last tour.
- ALL THE HINTS POINT TOWARDS IT (meaning, there's Edward
The Great in the early version of Nicko's kit or something similarly far-fetched and out of place, or just general trolling by Maiden-related social media accounts)
*Standard speculation around songs that might get played but are replaced after one or two shows for WRATHCHILD.
Phase 2
*Official sources (Steve & Bruce hint something in random interviews or Nicko slips out setlist spoilers "accidentally") confirm a couple of songs, so the speculated sets gain some consistency and shared structure
*The fiercest ATG talk may have calmed down, but is brought to play regularly, along with standard Wrathchild joke
*The roles for speculating fans are determined and can be divided - very roughly - into three groups:
- "
STOP DREAMING": No matter what the official sources say, you shouldn't be too hopeful! Promised surprises mean Wasted Years or Heaven Can Wait at the most
-
"ATG!!!!! CONFIRMED": Over-reacting to "hints" and even most doubtful rumors, often beefed up by poor translation or whatnot, to feed up the belief of something miraculous happening this time, because... well, "all the signs point towards it" or something like that. Not completely blind, but very optimistic belief for songs like Infinite Dreams, ATG, SIASL, Still Life etc. to be featured in the set.
-
Optimistc realist: Does not expect every rumoured/speculated deep cut to be played, but is optimistic enough to believe that as it has been with Maiden-trend, at least one or two highly anticipated gems will get played and some general "mixing things up" might be going on, as it has been with a couple of previous tours as well.
Phase 3
* The first gig of the tour draws near and everyone is anxiously waiting to see if their speculations are even near to what will eventually be played
*After the first gig or two, the Wrathchild (if the song is not played in the original set) joke takes another round or two
*Short speculation of songs that won't last the whole tour or are dropped for big festivals (actual song count: 0)
Phase 4
*The initial leg of the tour is over and the speculation for songs that will be dropped/replaced for the next leg starts taking rounds
*ATG speculation takes another round, this time almost entirely joke-based, but several serious thoughts about the song having a chance to be played in the future occur here and there
*Since the main set is more or less confirmed to remain as it was, the off-topic speculation, memes, jokes and almost paranoiac fears for the most interesting songs to be dropped for whatever reasons (band messing it up once or twice, poor crowd reaction etc.) take countless rounds
* "I wouldn't be surprised if they..." (do something that definitely
should surprise you if it happened, even if not TOO much)
*Long pauses in discussion may occur
*As the next leg draws closer, the discussion quickens up again, with Wrathchild joke(s) and song-dropping/replacement fears and speculations becoming very topical again; usually the suggested replacements don't even seem like a fit to the whatever speculated set is built around, or are a tad bit too random, meaning that there's no modern classic/cult/gem/fan- or band-favourite status or it has been just unrealistically too long since it was last played live to actually seem like something they'd rehearse between the legs, unless it's relatively simple song. Example: ATSS->NPFTD, The Clansman->The Longest Day or FTGGOG->The Legacy
*Sometimes the speculation of dropping/replacing songs ends up being correct, but that is usually already confirmed or strongly and clearly hinted by the official sources anyway and usually has something to do with band revisiting certain places they've already played during the previous leg.
