European Politics

[Black Wizard]

Ireland are doing very fine at the moment.

They were still in financial ruin a few years ago. It's not worth the risk.

 

[Forostar]

That has nothing to do with the statement you quoted.

It was an answer to one of your posts. Looks like we're busy at the same time, I hope you read this one as well, because it has to do with it:

What are your criteria to do well? I showed these figured to show that Scotland has stronger economical relations with Europe than with North America.
Of course export isn't everything to stand well on their own, but does the rest look bleak?

Now you again.

Also: independence, independence, independence. Someone just has to scream the word and it will have hopeless romantics come up with arguments of historical justice and spiritual liberty. I still have not heard a single rational argument from the SNP campaign. These are not times for dreamers, but for people who have a sober look at reality and a clue of what's best for the people.

Hey come on, LC also talks about historical bonds, there's a romantic touch there. Nothing wrong with that.

But there are some rational arguments: political and economical ones.

They were still in financial ruin a few years ago. It's not worth the risk.

Not anymore, they recovered very quickly, and now it's going well.

 

[Perun]

What are your criteria to do well? I showed these figured to show that Scotland has stronger economical relations with Europe than with North America.
Of course export isn't everything to stand well on their own, but does the rest look bleak?

My criteria to do well is that everybody has access to the labour market and outlook for a job that feeds them and their family. That people are not forced to have three jobs in labour leasing because that's the only way a company will produce inferior quality products to drown the world market in, eliminating any international competition unless said competition will employ people only in even worse conditions. That kids get a good education and don't have to wither away in classrooms with overworked teachers and no outlook for their future. That sick people don't die in front of closed pharmacies or because they can't pay for surgical treatment. That governments don't build ridiculous airports or needless underground lines, and don't pay the rest of the money they don't have to raptor banks because somebody once said they are needed to uphold an economy.

But as long as your country tops the world's export market, I guess that's all that matters.

 

[Forostar]

Thanks. These are important concerns but...

Does this apply to Scotland? Is it likely that this is going to happen?

 

[Perun]

Does this apply to Scotland?

I don't know, but if Scotland builds an economy based on export to challenge world competition, or one on credit taken from banks, that is what inevitably will happen. Independence is expensive, especially when the SNP doesn't get its will to leech off the financial system of the country it hates so much. So building a cheap economy fast will be necessary.

 

[Forostar]

Must confess I haven't thought of the costs of the independence. I was more thinking of the longer term.

 

[Black Wizard]

Not anymore, they recovered very quickly, and now it's going well.

I doubt the Irish economy is as strong as the British economy. Irish people flock over here to work/study.

My point with the Brussels/London comment is basically the devil you know.

And I don't think that an independent Scotland would be quite as bad as the bleak picture that Perun painted. I expect it wouldn't be hugely different from the way things are now but it's not worth the risk of things going really badly.

 

[Forostar]

but it's not worth the risk of things going really badly.

I am afraid you've been fear mongered?

@CriedWhenBrucieLeft are you also of this opinion?

I doubt the Irish economy is as strong as the British economy.

Here is a comparison I found.
http://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/united-kingdom.ireland/economy
Some info is not that recent but these figures were interesting I thought (check the whole thing as you wish; I have been selective with these copy-pastes, but this was to focus on numbers that might surprise you, in the light of your statement):


UK:

Ireland:​

GDP - real growth rate
0.2% (2012 est.)
0.9% (2011 est.)
1.8% (2010 est.)

GDP - real growth rate
0.9% (2012 est.)
1.4% (2011 est.)
-0.8% (2010 est.)​

GDP - per capita (PPP)
$37,500 (2012 est.)
$37,800 (2011 est.)
$37,700 (2010 est.)
note: data are in 2012 US dollars$42,600 (2012 est.)

GDP - per capita (PPP)
$42,300 (2011 est.)
$41,900 (2010 est.)
note: data are in 2012 US dollars​

GDP - composition by sector
agriculture: 0.7%
industry: 21%
services: 78.3% (2012 est.)

GDP - composition by sector
agriculture: 1.8%
industry: 26.3%
services: 72% (2012 est.)​

Population below poverty line
14% (2006 est.)

Population below poverty line
5.5% (2009)​

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold
$105.1 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
$94.54 billion (31 December 2011 est.)

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold
$1.707 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
$1.703 billion (31 December 2011 est.)​

Current Account Balance
-$57.7 billion (2012 est.)
-$46.04 billion (2011 est.)

Current Account Balance
$3.5 billion (2012 est.)
$2.484 billion (2011 est.)​

 

[Perun]

What I'm saying is basically, that the current political climate in Europe is one where an unnecessary radical change such as Scottish independence should be avoided for the sake of the Scottish people. If Britain should drown in a civil war and implode on its unsustainable capitalist disease then, yes, Scotland may be better off severing its ties. But since I see the EU on the same path, it should definitely not join the Eurozone. So we'll have a small independent country in the north Atlantic that will have no geopolitical significance except maybe disputes with Iceland and Norway.

 

[Crimson Idol]

I'm not exactly up on politics, current or otherwise, so if there are obvious answers to these things then please say... this is what entered my mind from reading this.

If Scotland became an independent country with it's own currency it would create an awful lot of extra hassle. Currently people freely cross the border between England/Scotland (and Wales, not that it's particularly relevant) every day - suddenly requiring currency exchanges to do that is hassle for the general public. Would you suddenly require a passport to do so? it's not like we have set points for crossing the border or anything that you could check such things at. In terms of the military, would it continue to be the British Army (Would Britain even continue to exist, with just England/Wales or would they follow suit?), or would there need to be the formation of a separate Scottish one too, then what happens to Scottish people in the existing one?

In many way's Scotland/England/Wales are one single country already - asides from the obvious (government, military, currency etc etc)... even just from the terms of the internet, I see every day "User connected from Germany, User connected from Poland, User connected from United Kingdom", there is no distinction between the individual countries. The only thing that really separate us are hundreds of years old.

It's probable that I'm being quite naive and am over simplifying (or complicating), I'm not overly knowledgeable on such things - hence not getting involved often!

 

[Forostar]

Well, I can understand the concern of hassle, and indeed, would independence touch the border crossing? I hadn't thought of it since both nations are in the EU (can't imagine Scotland can't be a member anymore).

Per, on the Eurozone, yes there have been problems and political decisions are important in this light (also national decisions), but there are countries, like Latvia, who recently joined and I haven't read about problems yet (but I could have missed that of course).

 

[Perun]

Per, on the Eurozone, yes there have been problems and political decisions are important in this light (also national decisions), but there are countries, like Latvia, who recently joined and I haven't read about problems yet (but I could have missed that of course).

Yeah, well Latvia joined very recently. Also, the smaller Central European countries aren't likely to have any problems because they have healthy economies. That says no word at all about the future of Greece or Spain, though. Just because there is a forced economic growth that inevitably happens after a recession doesn't mean the crisis is over. The crisis may be over for the banks, but not for the people.

 

[CriedWhenBrucieLeft]

You guys seem to be tragically ill-informed about the current political & economic situation in Scotland. Scotland already has independence in a great number of policy areas; independence really isn't that much of a leap. All this bollocks about passports & currency fails to recognise the current arrangement England/UK currently has with, as has been mentioned, its western neighbour Ireland, for example. I don't recall needing my passport the last time I travelled between Northern Ireland (UK) & Ireland. Different currency? Doesn't seem to matter that much. George Osborne says we can't have a formal currency arrangement. We'll have an informal one then. Yes, the SNP are unwilling to discuss this; but economists have --& there is no reason not proceed down the road of a currency board. This is a vote on Independence, not a vote for a SNP-controlled independent country. Personally, I think actions speak louder than words --& the SNP (whether in majority or coalition) have governed the country (in devolution) pretty well. I don't like the Tori-bashing either, but that is not going to affect how I vote.

 

[Perun]

This is a vote on Independence, not a vote for a SNP-controlled independent country.

Is it really? Are you really so sure of that?

 

[CriedWhenBrucieLeft]

Yes, I'm sure.

 

[Perun]

What makes you so sure?

 

[Crimson Idol]

My comment about passports/border crossing etc, just because it doesn't affect one country doesn't mean it wouldn't affect another etc. It depends on just how far it would go, it's an extreme case sure but it can still happen. Surely in terms of government the term "informal" is a very bad one in general? Creating a new currency is hardly going to be a simple task either.

As I stated before, I AM ill informed on such matters, so this is as much finding out facts for me as anything else.

 

[Brigantium]

Going back to what Cried said, Scottish law is quite distinct from English law - I believe solicitors have to be qualified both sides of the border if they want to work in both. So in that respect at least, Scotland is part of the way there, if you like.

But I do think it would get incredibly messy, regarding things such as citizenship, let alone EU membership, currency, armed forces and other shared aspects of the current state.

 

[Black Wizard]

Foro, I have no interest in looking at those stats you posted so I'm afraid you've wasted your time there. However, I saw a BBC news report on Ireland's economy recently and although they're no longer in the bail out phase a lot of people are still leaving the country to find work. This is not the case in the UK though. People come from Eastern Europe and Ireland to find work but I've not heard much about Brits leaving the country to find work. away I don't know if the economy in Scotland would become stronger or weaker away from the union but I'm worried that jobs in certain sectors would be lost. For example, a lot of the research that is conducted by universities and research centres is funded by the UK government and the EU. Nobody knows what would happen to that funding and that makes a lot of jobs potentially insecure. Those jobs aren't worth risking either.

On the topic of fear mongering, I wouldn't say I have been but I was already worried about what would happen to the economy and various other things if we broke away. Much of what the UK government has said recently has confirmed my suspicions and the nationalists have only raised more doubts. Nobody really knows what would happen with the currency now, or if we'll need border controls. How ridiculous would it be to have your car searched at Gretna by the way?

What makes you so sure?

I'm guessing it's because we could vote for a Labour government in 2016.

 

[Forostar]

Foro, I have no interest in looking at those stats you posted so I'm afraid you've wasted your time there.

A bit disappointing that you don't want to be informed, but that your choice. Anyway, GDP - per capita (PPP) is higher in Ireland and look at one stat then if you wish:

Population below poverty line UK
14% (2006 est.)
Population below poverty line Ireland
5.5% (2009)

However, I saw a BBC news report on Ireland's economy recently and although they're no longer in the bail out phase a lot of people are still leaving the country to find work. This is not the case in the UK though. People come from Eastern Europe and Ireland to find work but I've not heard much about Brits leaving the country to find work.

Lots of poor people have no will (or chance) to do that. And mind you, the UK is typically an immigration country. The Brits are very focused on their own islands, in bad or good times. They mistrust the EU.