European Politics

Black Wizard said:
This reminds me of the classic scene from Monty Python's Life of Brian, which I think was actually based on all the paramilitary organizations in Northern Ireland.
Click to expand...
If you look at the names of the paramilitary groups in parts of Africa you will find much more in the way of Popular Fronts and Peoples Fronts that you will in Ireland.

And aye, power sharing is part of the Good Friday Agreement and is done in a cross community fashion. The top 2 ministerial positions have to be filled by one nationalist and one unionist. Dont quote me but, I believe, in theory, non-sectarian parties could get 99% of the vote and still not be able to hold the top 2 roles. This would never happen but still.
 




Andrew Neil

@afneil

Varadkar’ s FG, campaigning on anti-British “small Country” ticket down 7 points.


This tweet seems to be generating a fair bit of laughter on twitter this morning as Fine Gael are losing ground to that well known pro-british party Sinn Fein
 
Very interesting election in Ireland at the moment, with it close to being a 3 way tie. Counts take ages here due to the transferable vote system so no real result expected for a few days. Sinn Fein made massive gains and if anything seem to have fucked up by not running 2 candidates in more constituencies.
 
srfc said:
This image is from before the last election but is a good illustration of Irish politics.
Click to expand...

You mean Irish parties are led by cartoon characters? For some reason, that's what I always imagined Irish politics to look like.

EDIT: I have a question though, for all Irish, Northern or Republic. I found this graphic on Wiki:

800px-Northern_Ireland_election_seats_1997-2019.svg.png


It tells me two things, first that Northern Ireland is getting increasingly polarised between two camps when there used to be a greater degree of plurality; and second, that territories once held by the UUP, which to my understanding is a Unionist party, got claimed by the Sinn Féin, which to my understanding is not the greatest fan of the UK. How on Earth did that happen? Is it because these districts have mixed Protestant and Catholic populations but aren't split like Belgrade Belfast?
 
Last edited:
srfc said:
You should see some of the people elected in some rural constituencies, calling them cartoon characters would be an insult to cartoon characters,
Click to expand...

Edited my post with a more serious question.
 
Perun said:
You mean Irish parties are led by cartoon characters? For some reason, that's what I always imagined Irish politics to look like.

EDIT: I have a question though, for all Irish, Northern or Republic. I found this graphic on Wiki:

800px-Northern_Ireland_election_seats_1997-2019.svg.png


It tells me two things, first that Northern Ireland is getting increasingly polarised between two camps when there used to be a greater degree of plurality; and second, that territories once held by the UUP, which to my understanding is a Unionist party, got claimed by the Sinn Féin, which to my understanding is not the greatest fan of the UK. How on Earth did that happen? Is it because these districts have mixed Protestant and Catholic populations but aren't split like Belgrade Belfast?
Click to expand...
Part of it might be due to the First Past the Post system in UK General Elections. Some parties stand down in marginal constituencies.
 
Perun said:
You mean Irish parties are led by cartoon characters? For some reason, that's what I always imagined Irish politics to look like.

EDIT: I have a question though, for all Irish, Northern or Republic. I found this graphic on Wiki:

800px-Northern_Ireland_election_seats_1997-2019.svg.png


It tells me two things, first that Northern Ireland is getting increasingly polarised between two camps when there used to be a greater degree of plurality; and second, that territories once held by the UUP, which to my understanding is a Unionist party, got claimed by the Sinn Féin, which to my understanding is not the greatest fan of the UK. How on Earth did that happen? Is it because these districts have mixed Protestant and Catholic populations but aren't split like Belgrade Belfast?
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be an expert by any means but a few things would jump out at me. 1997 would be a watershed year, ceasefires had been declared and the Good Friday Agreement was signed the following spring. Before the agreement, the SDLP where the main "catholic" party and UUP main "protestant" parties, Sinn Fein was the political wing of the IRA and the DUP were religious fundamentalists. Peace made SF less of a toxic brand for catholics. DUP were opposed to the peace process and as such drew protestant support away from the UUP. That's probably a very simplistic way of explaining how the various parties switched.

Regarding how the constitucies in the west switched from blue to green, demographic change would be my guess, the protestant population is aging, in 1922 the ratio in Northern Ireland as a whole was probably something like 70:30 protestants:catholics, it's probably close to 50:50 at the moment. Also, the south west constituency on that map is usually very close. SF won it by 60 votes in the last election, that's out of a turnout of 50,000 votes! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermanagh_and_South_Tyrone_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

EDIT: they won it by 4! votes in 2010
 
Thanks! I tend to forget that most of these areas don't have very high populations at least compared to what I'm used to so that majorities can hinge on relatively few votes. Fermanagh and South Tyrone sounds pretty extreme nevertheless. Interesting to hear about the demographic development being unfavourable towards the Protestants, though.
 
First count from my constituency, there's 5 seats in this constituency

Mitchell (SF)-- 21,344 Elected
Bruton (FG)- 11,1156
O'Riordain (Lab)- 8,127
Haughey (FF)- 6,651
O'Callaghan (SD)- 6,229
Healy (GP)- 5,042

and then loads of no hopers

The quota is 11935. So if you get 11,935 you're elected, so SF got nearly enough for 2 quotas and really fucked up by not running a second candidate. What they do now is take the 10,000 extras votes Mitchell got and go through them and see who people put second and then transfer them votes to whoever that was. And they also elimate no hopers in further counts and then redistribute their votes in the same way until 5 candidates have the quota.

So Bruton is almost certain to get in as he only needs another 800 votes. The rest is interesting. I voted for O'Riordan, so he's got a chance. I'd also be happy enough with the Social Democrats and Greens getting in. Sean Haughey is the son of a corrupt former Taoiseach so if he can get kept out I'll be delighted. 3 left getting in and only 1 each for FF and FG would be a big result as far as I'm concerned.
 
srfc said:
I wouldn't be an expert by any means but a few things would jump out at me. 1997 would be a watershed year, ceasefires had been declared and the Good Friday Agreement was signed the following spring. Before the agreement, the SDLP where the main "catholic" party and UUP main "protestant" parties, Sinn Fein was the political wing of the IRA and the DUP were religious fundamentalists. Peace made SF less of a toxic brand for catholics. DUP were opposed to the peace process and as such drew protestant support away from the UUP. That's probably a very simplistic way of explaining how the various parties switched.

Regarding how the constitucies in the west switched from blue to green, demographic change would be my guess, the protestant population is aging, in 1922 the ratio in Northern Ireland as a whole was probably something like 70:30 protestants:catholics, it's probably close to 50:50 at the moment. Also, the south west constituency on that map is usually very close. SF won it by 60 votes in the last election, that's out of a turnout of 50,000 votes! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermanagh_and_South_Tyrone_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

EDIT: they won it by 4! votes in 2010
Click to expand...
I'm thinking of stereotypes regarding large Catholic families and birth control.

Could migration also play a part in the shifting voting patterns? More affluent Protestants moving to Belfast for better employment opportunities and perhaps England too, since I suspect Northern Ireland doesn't have a lot going for it. Less wealthy Catholic families were less able to move so stayed put and became the dominant demographic.
 
Black Wizard said:
I'm thinking of stereotypes regarding large Catholic families and birth control.

Could migration also play a part in the shifting voting patterns? More affluent Protestants moving to Belfast for better employment opportunities and perhaps England too, since I suspect Northern Ireland doesn't have a lot going for it. Less wealthy Catholic families were less able to move so stayed put and became the dominant demographic.
Click to expand...

Yeah you're spot on with both of them observations. Catholics go to college, ironically, in Queens or down south while more Prods go to England and some never come back.
 
srfc said:
Yeah you're spot on with both of them observations. Catholics go to college, ironically, in Queens or down south while more Prods go to England and some never come back.
Click to expand...
I knew many Irish people when I was an undergraduate - from both the Republic and the North. The way the tuition fees worked out with Scottish universities meant there was a loophole for anyone with an Irish passport to have no fees due to some EU thing. I don't know if that will still apply though!

Irish people are literally everywhere. There is even an Irish pub near me which is also a Celtic supporters club. I went there once to watch a Euro 2016 qualifier between Ireland and Scotland. Irish people of all ages came out offl the woodwork for it. One of my colleagues goes there to watch the wierd Irish sports too.
 
I wasn't even thinking of that! There's a family dynasty of independents in Kerry, the Healy Raes, the Da used to be a TD and now two of the sons are, and their main position is literally that people should be allowed drink drive home from the pub. Then there's a guy in Tipperary who used to be Fine Gael but got fucked out because he was bribed to give a national mobile phone contact to a billionaires company, and he now stands as an independent and tops the poll every time.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top