European Politics

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It's soon here, too. What I gather from Flash's posts is a presence of a viable alternative option.
Here there's none.
 
AKP dominated the election. They've got their majority back, they actually matched their record breaking 2011 election performance with %49. A %8 jump in votes. R.I.P. Republic of Turkey.
 
No. But he is the actual leader of AKP anyway. Whatever decision AKP makes, it's actually Erdoğan who decides over it.

AKP and Erdoğan did everything a party could do to lose votes in a sane nation. Made outrageous statements, insulted things people considers to be sacred (martyrdom), constant corruption, huge increase in inflation, crippling growth rates, the recent comeback of terrorist attacks that killed a total of 500 people including 300 citizens, police brutality, constant polarization and so on.

That's the thing though, Turkey is insane. In fact, it's bat shit crazy. There's no hope. Whatever hope we gained in the June 7 elections has disappeared. It'll be the same old story for 4 more years.

-----

Who's to blame for AKP's huge vote gain? MHP and PKK. MHP's delusional, inept leader kept refusing everything he was offered in the time between the elections. He refused to form a coalition with CHP and HDP, refused to support the CHP candidate that received support from HDP in the election of the head of the parliament leading to AKP candidate winning, so on and so forth. MHP voters reacted to his unreconciliatory attitude in a negative way, around %4-5 of MHP votes seem to have shifted to AKP. And PKK? I've explained before that they want to be the leading voice for the Kurdish cause. They want to eradicate HDP and as a result started to prepare terrorist attacks again right after HDP got elected to the parliament. Because of the misguided view conservatives and nationalists have that argues PKK and HDP are on the same page, any terrorist attack PKK prepares in turn hurts HDP's credibility. HDP lost about %3 of their conservative Kurdish vote to AKP. AKP wins, HDP becomes less relevant and PKK wins.

Turkey saw the light at the end of the tunnel on June 7. But it decided to go in the direction from where it came. I'm afraid a train is fast approaching.

AKP: %49.3
CHP: %25.4
MHP: %11.9
HDP: %10.5

Swing from the June 7 election:

AKP: +8.51
CHP: +0.48
MHP: -4.32
HDP: -2.62
 
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My condolences, Flash. There's speculation here that the AKP majority would be used to change the constitution and enhance Erdogans powers, is that realistic?
 
Perun said:
My condolences, Flash. There's speculation here that the AKP majority would be used to change the constitution and enhance Erdogans powers, is that realistic?
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Not happening. They need 330 MPs to change the constitution, they've got 316. It's a failure in that sense but it wasn't realistic anyway, jumping from 258 to 316 is incredible. Noone saw it coming.

Forostar said:
Terrible. AKP did everything "right" to fool the country.
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They did. Upped the chaos, blamed it on other people, blamed the lack of a government, asked for "consistency". They know the voter's mindset like they know their own name. And our people fall for it every single time. What a shame.
 
Another 'holiday of democracy' is done. The result;

SDP (Social Democratic Party, currently in power, left wing of League Of Communists Of Croatia) - 56 parliamentary mandates
HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union, was in power for most of 25 Croatian independent years, right wing of League Of Communists Of Croatia) - 56 parliamentary mandates
Most ('The Bridge', alliance of non-affiliated politicians) - 19

The rest is about 20 mandates spread over several minor parties, diaspora votes and registered national minorities.
SDP can probably count on 6 more (at least 3 from national minorities and 3 from Istria regional party)
HDZ can probably count on 3-6 more (3 diaspora votes, + someone from national minorities might ally with them)

The interesting thing about Most is that they didn't want to enter any coalitions. They are mostly made of people who were in the Parties, got various local positions but were unable to improve anything because they were just Party men expected to act on commands from the HQ. So right now the situation is repeated elections because neither Party can count on majority without Most. Most might enter coalitions with either of them, using the usual rhetoric how repeated elections are costly, how it's better to take a partner position to achieve goals of their voting body, etc. Bullshit because we don't need cosmetic savings, we need fundamental change. But alas, I don't think that Most has enough potential to make majority government by themselves, even after repeated elections. Right now the masks fell down, and people saw that independents can actually be a political power. Up until now, it was 'don't vote for small ones, you're just wasting your vote' type of story. However, in that case I predict that a lot of Party votes would just spill over to a number of minor parties, Most wouldn't achieve majority, and some people (a war criminal who loves Hitler and has his personal SA squad, for instance) would get more seats in the parliament, which isn't good.

So, electoral democracy in Croatia is very expensive and funny activity that doesn't do jack shit.
 
harrisdevot said:
They explicitely referred to the bombings in which France is taking part against ISIS.
France has fuelled extremism. A few years back, the islamic hijab and all the different kinds of veils where a rare phenomenon. Pres. Sarkozy, willing to please the extreme-right, launched a massive debate on this supposed problem, instead of addressing it intelligently, forged repressive laws, and now, those veils are viewed by a significant part of the muslims as an element of identity. Those people feel disciminated against, and in most cases, they are. In France, "muslim" is now one of the terms used to label the non-white people. Our political leaders are mostly irresponsible.
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Yes sir. Here's an excellent text. I urge people to read it, also the ones who especially seem to focus on negative impact of immigration (especially focusing on the "bad" immigrants only).
e.g. @bearfan @Travis The Dragon

"The riots involving many Muslim youths in Paris a decade ago were driven by socio-economic injustice and racial segregation, not a thirst for jihad, sharia or a global Islamic state. These uprisings were a call for the national ideals of freedom, equality and fraternity to apply to them, too."

- - - - - - -

Paris attacks: closing migration routes into France won’t stop terrorism – resisting xenophobia might
https://theconversation.com/paris-a...op-terrorism-resisting-xenophobia-might-50725

When Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks in Paris that have killed at least 129 people, it warned that more would follow. French president, François Hollande, has in turn vowed to show “no mercy” in his response.

This pledge is bound to have a profound effect on border controls and the treatment of Syrian refugees in the country. But France has the option to show the world that it will continue to stand for liberté, égalité and fraternité.

For some time, Europe has feared that IS could infiltrate its borders as a part of the huge influx of people fleeing Syria. And indeed, there are reports that at least one of the men who carried out the Paris attacks registered as a Syrian asylum seeker in Greece – one stop on a well-known refugee route.

France has not been enthusiastic about welcoming Syrian refugees. A few months ago, it had agreed to take only 24,000 refugees over two years – a tiny share of the millions of people seeking help.

France had already closed the border to migrants left stranded in Ventimigilia, an Italian town on the border with France – a move which caused significant tension between Rome and Paris. The mayor of one southern French city also had a blunt message for incoming Syrian refugees: “You’re not welcome here. You need to leave.”

There is a risk that France will now seek to further tighten its borders. So thousands of Syrians forced to flee their country because of IS are now in danger of finding the door closed when they arrive in Europe. They will have to cope with the knowledge that they could be mistaken for, and treated as, the very people they are trying to escape.

A field day for Islamophobes
The idea that refugee routes could have been exploited by terrorists is also a golden opportunity for Islamophobes. Across Europe, right-wing parties and their anti-immigration policies have become hugely popular in recent years. Several have successfully won places on national governments and many have influence in national parliaments. These groups have sought to further bolster their position as the migration crisis has worsened and are sure to try to capitalise on this latest incident to whip up anti-Muslim sentiment.

Others will suggest that France should simply keep calm and carry on, just like the British did after the London bombings in 2005. But the French should not simply maintain the status quo – they urgently need to work against the increasingly influential identity politics in the country that have partially contributed to the religious extremism they face today.

Even before the Charlie Hebdo shootings in January, the Council of Europe, a human rights group, had warned that France was becoming more intolerant towards minority groups, including Muslims. Despite advances in legislation and measures to combat intolerance and racism, discrimination and hate speech persist.

France has a strong political culture of laïcité according to which all citizens are in principle equal, regardless of their religion. We all stand with the French people for valuing freedom and equality, especially in the fight against IS barbarism. But there have also been concerns that France has become increasingly intolerant towards its religious minorities and their freedoms. The long-running dispute about being able to wear religious clothing in public is a particular example. Official opposition to such symbols is often seen as an attack on freedom .

The riots involving many Muslim youths in Paris a decade ago were driven by socio-economic injustice and racial segregation, not a thirst for jihad, sharia or a global Islamic state. These uprisings were a call for the national ideals of freedom, equality and fraternity to apply to them, too.

These problems have not been addressed in the past decade and the consequences are clear. More than a third of the Europeans fighting with IS in Syria are known to be coming from France. At least three of Friday’s attackers are understood to have been French.

Sending Syrians back, tightening the border controls and bringing in stricter immigration policies will not solve what have become very French problems. The route taken into France by one of these attackers is less of an issue than the route taken out by many more disillusioned citizens. France has marginalised its Muslim youth and some, as a result, have decided to join IS and return to kill.

Religious fanatics perhaps have to be answered with violence – and maybe France has every right to tighten its border controls and strongly resist the mass influx of refugees from Syria. Maybe Syrians will be sent back to countries such as Turkey, which are arguably safe. But none of these solutions addresses the fundamental and structural flaws that seem to be fanning the flames of terrorism.

The solution to terrorism is a more equitable distribution of dignity and opportunity, not the closing down of borders.
 
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Closing migration routes will not stop terrorism, but inspecting more closely who is in these routes and stripping citizenship of those who essentially join a foreign army and preventing their return will minimize it.
 
bearfan said:
Closing migration routes will not stop terrorism, but inspecting more closely who is in these routes and stripping citizenship of those who essentially join a foreign army and preventing their return will minimize it.
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True. It still outrages me how uncontrolled this wave of migration was. Strict inspection is the way to go, but the problem is it's almost impossible in practice.
 
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