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Atlanta Fed posts alarming new economic projection of Trump's first quarter

The Atlanta Federal Reserve on Monday produced a new projection that the American economy would shrink by nearly three percent in the first quarter of President Donald Trump's second term.Specifically, the Atlanta Fed now projects that the economy will shrink by 2.8 percent in Q1 2025, which...
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... And the economy was previously predicted to grow with like 2.5%, but then the madness started. When you start tariff wars, there are consequences. When you fire federal employees by the numbers, there are consequences. When you cancel contracts and policy, there are consequences.

Edit: Large retailer and consumer product layoffs too.
 
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Wästed The Great said:
Train. Wreck.
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But it's a beautiful wreck, gorgeous wreck, some might say the most beautiful wreck in the history of this country. I love that word, "wreck," I just came up with it. Aren't I a genius folks? The folks at Webster's called me to say I'm the smartlyest person they've ever met. And well my mother told me the same thing so it must be true.
 
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Onhell said:
But it's a beautiful wreck, gorgeous wreck, some might say the most beautiful wreck in the history of this country. I love that word, "wreck," I just came up with it. Aren't I a genius folks? The folks at Webster's called me to say I'm the smartlyest person they've ever met. And well my mother told me the same thing do it must be true.
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MWGA: Make that Wreck Great Again.
 
Canadian retaliation for Trump's illegal and stupid tariffs continue:

The sale of Canadian energy into US markets from Ontario to have a 25% export tax appended. This will generate $100 million in revenue for Ontario, which Doug Ford says will be used to support workers impacted by the illegal Trump tariffs. (Doug Ford can't be trusted but he's probably not lying here.) The primary markets for Ontarian energy are NY and Michigan, with a small amount being sold to Minnesota. Ford is pressuring other energy exporters, primarily BC and Quebec, to follow suit. If so, that would impact the Pacific Northwest and New England heavily.

Canadian gas exports which primarily impact Maine, NH, and VT have already gone up 10% due to the Trump tariffs, which directly impacts heating prices in those states. Maine energy prices are primarily driven by the cost of Canadian gas and went haywire for a few days before stabilizing.

This is what Trump wants, I guess. Things to be more expensive in the USA.
 
I'm boycotting, or cutting down my consumption of US products and companies when I have a reasonable ability to do so. I prefer my money going elsewhere if I can help it.
 
Yax said:
I'm boycotting, or cutting down my consumption of US products and companies when I have a reasonable ability to do so. I prefer my money going elsewhere if I can help it.
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The unorganized mass boycott of American goods in Canada is very real, I can tell you that. You can see people in supermarkets looking to see where something is made and putting back the US goods wherever they can.

That said, if you need something, you gotta get it. Or if they cut prices on some of this stuff and it's a household in need, as well. I'd never shame someone for buying US goods, especially if they're on sale or a household essential. But in general, Canadians are changing their buying habits as best as they can.

And let alone the impact to specific industries in the USA. Canada has pretty much stopped selling US liquor and wine, and we were a major export market for both. Get rid of the tariffs, go back to the Trump-negotiated CUSMA, and all of this stops happening and it's business as usual. Or closer to it, anyway.
 
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LooseCannon said:
The primary markets for Ontarian energy are NY and Michigan, with a small amount being sold to Minnesota. Ford is pressuring other energy exporters, primarily BC and Quebec, to follow suit. If so, that would impact the Pacific Northwest and New England heavily.
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Unfortunate that out of that list, only Michigan and a fraction of Maine actually contributed to Trump’s election in the electoral college.
 
Jer said:
Unfortunate that out of that list, only Michigan and a fraction of Maine actually contributed to Trump’s election in the electoral college.
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The Trump tariffs impact all of Canada. We don't get to pick and choose, we hit back where we can. My understanding is upstate NY is where most of the power goes for NY, and that is an extremely red area with a few blue pockets, but hitting Michigan alone is worth it.
 
LooseCannon said:
The Trump tariffs impact all of Canada. We don't get to pick and choose, we hit back where we can.
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Fair enough, though it feels more just to target red states where possible.

LooseCannon said:
My understanding is upstate NY is where most of the power goes for NY, and that is an extremely red area with a few blue pockets
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That’s true, and even the blue states have a ton of Trump voters in them, so you will still impact a lot of people who deserve it. But the entire situation is inherently shitty for all involved.
 
Jer said:
Fair enough, though it feels more just to target red states where possible.


That’s true, and even the blue states have a ton of Trump voters in them, so you will still impact a lot of people who deserve it. But the entire situation is inherently shitty for all involved.
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Yeah, the current counter-tariff plan is specifically targeting red state operations - liquor, oranges and other fruits from Florida/Georgia region, devices primarily manufactured in Ohio and Indiana, and a few luxury goods. It's obviously not a perfect thing, you're going to hit people everywhere, and even in red states people voted for Kamala and common sense.

If Trump lifts his illegal tariffs that violate the trade agreement he signed, that is based on the fiction of drugs and migrants coming into the USA in any level of notable numbers, then our tariffs and responses will stop and I can go buy Kentucky bourbon tomorrow. But given that the President's comments are truly around annexing Canada, well. I doubt it'll stop. So we have to make it clear: Canada isn't for sale.
 
On a practical level this makes the most sense:
LooseCannon said:
The Trump tariffs impact all of Canada. We don't get to pick and choose, we hit back where we can
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At the same time, a lot of what got us a second Trump term is also voter apathy and a general lack of interest in civics and participatory democracy. That is something that is a nationwide problem, red or blue states.

If people walked away from Trump's first term with the understanding that elections have consequences, we probably wouldn't have had a second Trump term. I think it's important for all Americans to feel the effects of Trump's presidency to ensure it doesn't happen again, even people who voted for Kamala.

Speaking of which, gas prices continue to creep up beyond what they were last year. Thanks Trump voters! On the same topic:
Mosh said:
Well at least you’re honest. I assume your gas and grocery bills have come down as well?
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Still waiting for a response to this btw @DJ James. Would love to know where I can go to avoid paying the Trump tax on gas and groceries.
 
LooseCannon said:
Eggs in my grocery store, as of last weekend, were $4.29 CAD. That's $2.97 a dozen USD. And that's large eggs, store brand. Nothing fancy, just regular eggs.

I'm being told by friends in Ohio that the price of eggs at their local is $5.99 for similar, but they never have any. Uh-oh! Now, I get there's a bird flu, it's just that DOGE fired everyone in charge of containing bird flu and then they can't rehire them all, and the ones who have been rehired, some of them can't work...gee.
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I paid $5.97 yesterday.
 
Eggs are around $6 IF I can find them.

I also understand the bird flu angle, and DOGE's "work" in making it more difficult to contain bird flu. But, most importantly, Trump was explicit throughout the campaign that he would bring the cost of eggs down immediately. He may have even said that he would get the price of eggs down before taking office.

The clock is ticking. I would like to pay $3 for eggs again sometime in the next four years.
 
Here, a dozen large free range eggs are £3.50 ($4.51) or I could buy 20 caged hen eggs (I wouldn't) for £2.99 ($3.85).

Feel like making an omelette or two now.
 
The White House and accomplices have other priorities.

Like defending claims they cut $80million on research on transgender mice. Or labeling a senator "traitor" for visiting Ukraine and even having the nerve to write that a peace deal must ensure Ukraine's security.

Congratulations again, America. You voted for crazy and you got it.
 
Yax said:
I'm boycotting, or cutting down my consumption of US products and companies when I have a reasonable ability to do so. I prefer my money going elsewhere if I can help it.
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Reading about Scandinavian boycott initiatives I wish German consumer groups would have those balls. Then again, what we really need is an EU-Canada free trade treaty that would show the US just how little they are needed.
 
Perun said:
Reading about Scandinavian boycott initiatives I wish German consumer groups would have those balls. Then again, what we really need is an EU-Canada free trade treaty that would show the US just how little they are needed.
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The Swedish Facebook group is currently at 75k, which isn't half bad with barely any media traction (around 0.7% of the population is in the group). Even at that number, it can make a relatively substantial finanical mark in the Swedish market, as long as they do it long term and with loads of products.
 
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