USA Politics

Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

From what I have seen so far, seems like McCain is a solid lock.  Clinton and Obama are still neck in neck, but many are thinking he will come out victorious today.  I really am excited to see how it turns out!

@Onhell, I agree with you... it is really odd that he hasn't gotten more negative responses from his religion.  But, hey, maybe we aren't as backwards here in the states as we seem, sometimes.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Huckabee wins West Virginia!

He has won all 18 delegates for the state, giving him his second primary victory.

More as the day develops, here on LCNN!
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Well, it's all over for now, and nobody knows who won on the Democratic side.  Obama won more states and delegates, but Clinton won the biggies.

McCain is the clear frontrunner.  We'll have to see what happens in the next run of primaries and caucuses to see if Romney or Huckabee will drop out.

Saturday features three strong Obama states: Nebraska, Louisiana, and Washington.  He may be able to close the delegate gap between himself and Clinton.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

In the Democratic camp it's a match between characters, while the Republicans are torn apart between ideologies. An interesting strugle in both camps.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Romney pulls out!

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02 ... index.html

GOP sources: Romney to suspend campaign

(CNN) -- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will suspend his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, GOP sources tell CNN.

Generally, when a presidential candidate "suspends" a campaign, he may keep any delegates he has won up to that point. If the candidate "drops out," he may only keep district-level delegates he had won and he would forfeit any statewide delegates won.

art.romney.gi.jpg

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is expected to suspend his campaign Thursday, sources say.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

From the article Foro linked...

Suspending a campaign has a different meaning depending on the party.

On the Republican side, decisions on how to allocate delegates is left to the state parties.

On the Democratic side, a candidate who "suspends" is technically still a candidate, so he or she keeps both district and statewide delegates won through primaries and caucuses. Superdelegates are always free to support any candidate at any time, whether the candidate drops out, suspends or stays in.

National party rules say that a candidate who "drops out" keeps any district-level delegates he or she has won so far but loses any statewide delegates he or she has won.
Click to expand...

So consider my home state of Colorado, which Romney won on Tuesday. That gave him 43 delegates (zero for any other candidates). But the state-level Republicans could now throw those votes to McCain (or anyone else) at the convention. However, McCain is so far ahead that such a possibility is unlikely to change anything.

So McCain, Huckabee and Ron "my internet legions will bore you to tears" Paul remain. It will be interesting to see if Paul gets any more mainstream media coverage as the number of candidates decreases. If that happens, his fanboys will only  ... *groan* ... cheer louder.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

The Republican race is over.  McCain will be the nominee.  The only race now is Clinton v. Obama.  I predict Obama.  Here's why: I had lunch yesterday with a prominent Democratic contributor, who said that, "if that c#%@ wins the nomination, I just won't f#*%ing vote.  I won't vote for McCain, because I have never voted Republican in my life, but I refuse to vote for her.  I can't stand her."  He said that there are is a noteworthy percentage of Democrats who feel the same way.  Few people, if any, have such passionate negative feelings about Obama.  That doesn't necessarily mean Hillary won't get more votes, but Obama may have a better shot of beating McCain, so any delegates up for grabs may vote accordingly. 
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Please, let the Ron Paulinistas die.

We may see a resolution soon in the Democratic race.  If Obama can get a delegate lead over the next week (possible, since he will likely win all three states up on Saturday, and probably DC and Maryland and maybe Virginia on Tuesday), he and Hillary may cut a deal.  If the race drags out longer than that...it will start to hurt the Democratic party's cred.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

cornfedhick said:
He said that there are is a noteworthy percentage of Democrats who feel the same way.  Few people, if any, have such passionate negative feelings about Obama.  That doesn't necessarily mean Hillary won't get more votes, but Obama may have a better shot of beating McCain, so any delegates up for grabs may vote accordingly. 
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Firstly, I call bullshit on that. Show me data. Most Democrats would have no problem voting for Clinton in the general election. They may prefer Obama, but they'd rather vote for Clinton than let McCain win by default.

Every time I've met someone who hated Clinton that much, the person was a Republican. Every time. No exceptions. It's very rare, in my experience, to find Democrats who hate her. Dislike, sure ... but hate to that extent? Rare indeed.


Second, "delegates up for grabs" fall into 2 categories. Most are required by party rules to vote according to their state's primary results. Superdelegates are the only ones who can vote as they personally prefer. While many superdelegates have yet to endorse a candidate, the ones who have declared so far have gone almost 2-to-1 to Clinton (193 to 107 to be exact). However, I will note that most of those were early declarations, and lately Obama has been getting more superdelegates ... so he may close that gap in the end, especially if declared superdelegates change their mind (which is allowed).
LooseCannon said:
If the race drags out longer than that...it will start to hurt the Democratic party's cred.
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I disagree. Battles for the nomination have gone all the way to the convention before, and I'm not aware of any cases where that hurt the party. It's such a small issue - if a party is going to lose the general election, it's because they have much bigger problems than that.

Also, the Democrats have a tactical advantage now. Both Clinton and Obama now know they can direct all their attention to attacking McCain ... but McCain still has to fight on 2 fronts. (3 really - he still has to deal with Huckabee, who will pick up Romney's supporters.)

Less than half of the total Democrat delegates have been pledged to a candidate. There's no reason for either Clinton or Obama to give up this early. And there's very little chance of a "deal", if you mean a Clinton/Obama ticket in November. They should both keep going. It doesn't make sense for one to give up when the race is so close. That only happens when one gets way ahead.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

There have been media statements lately that a 'prolonged battle' between the Clinton and Obama will 'wear out' the voters, and will reduce the amount of voters that turn out for the presidential election.  I am not saying that will happen, but it is something that has been talked about-- I believe it was MSNBC that I had seen that on.

This link is to a Slate report on MSN:

http://slate.com/blogs/blogs/trailhead/ ... ?gt1=10935

It states right at the top that there is some confusion in how many delegates are 'taken' so far, but they have the race fairly close for the Democrats.  What I found interesting was that after almost 14 Million votes, only a little over 131,000 votes seperate the two of them (Obama and Clinton).  I know that the 'popular vote' doesn't acutally mean anything to delegates exactly, but I think it is really interesting how closely the population in general see these two candidates.  And I am also impressed with how many voters have been turning out lately.  Anyway, there are some good stats that they have listed there.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

What is extremely interesting is that in the Southern states where Obama has had big wins (South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama), more Democrats have turned out for the primaries than Republicans.  That is a pretty good sign for November if Obama is the candidate.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

SinisterMinisterX said:
Firstly, I call bullshit on that. Show me data. Most Democrats would have no problem voting for Clinton in the general election. They may prefer Obama, but they'd rather vote for Clinton than let McCain win by default.

Every time I've met someone who hated Clinton that much, the person was a Republican. Every time. No exceptions. It's very rare, in my experience, to find Democrats who hate her. Dislike, sure ... but hate to that extent? Rare indeed.
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Obviously, data on that is hard to come by, though you can probably find a poll supporting anything.  (See the Winston Churchill thread I recently started.)  My point was simply anecdotal.  Most people I know in L.A. are Democrats, and while the vast majority of them would have no problem voting for H. Clinton, there are at least a couple who, at least in conversation, shared the view -- without the colorful language -- expressed by the person I quoted in my earlier post.  And while it is probably true that very few Democrats "hate" Clinton, even SMX concedes that there are plenty who "dislike" her.  Given that, and given Obama's gaining momentum (he appears to be raising more money these days), that's why I'm predicting Obama will beat Clinton.  Also, it wouldn't surprise me to learn that many of the "anti-Hillary" Democrats might be willing to live with McCain, who, if you listen to conservative Republicans, is not too distant politically from Clinton, anyway.  In contrast, if by chance Huckabee were the candidate, even the "anti-Hillary" Democrats would probably turn out in droves to vote for her.  Indeed, I'm a Republican, and I would probably vote for the Democratic candidate if Huckabee were the GOP nominee.  Thankfully, he won't be. 
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Don’t forget there’s also a number of Republicans who dislike McCain. If he will be the final Rep. candidate, they could choose for the Democratic opponent instead. And they might prefer Clinton instead of Obama.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Forostar said:
Don’t forget there’s also a number of Republicans who dislike McCain. If he will be the final Rep. candidate, they could choose for the Democratic opponent instead. And they might prefer Clinton instead of Obama.
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Wrong.

The Republicans who like McCain are the hard rightwingers - Coulter, Limbaugh, etc.  Some of them are saying that Hillary is more conservative than McCain, but the vast majority will not vote at all, instead of choosing John McCain as President.  There has even been some talk of a third Presidential candidate from the Evangelical right.  McCain may foster a lower turnout of voters in many states.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Depends what you call hard. In some ways Huckabee is harder.

When McCain talks about immigration the “hard ones” in the crowd start booing and want him to shut up about the subject. They rather vote for anyone else than for him, if he will be the last of the Republican candidates in the final battle. Huckabee is a hard one with his moral views.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

I meant to type "dislike McCain".  Coulter et al do not like him at all.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

I think the thing is, the 'hard' Democrats and the 'hard' Republicans are not the ones that are going to be determining this presidential election. This country has really become a 'middle' country, and the ones that are more centrally located in their ideals are the ones that are making a difference in the presidential election.  And I do think its correct that Hillary and McCain are very similar in their 'core', that would be an interesting election... however, I think, especially for McCain, the VP may be what means something to those 'Hilary-haters' with the election.  If he had one of the 'hard right' conservatives with him as a VP candidate, that may really turn off the Dems that might think about voting for a left-wing Republican like McCain.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

The other key thing to remember is John McCain's age and physical condition.  He is not exactly young and spry.  In fact, he is old, abused, has "more scars than Frankenstein" (his own words), and suffers from reoccurring melanoma.  It is entirely likely that McCain will die in office (the first president to die of natural causes since FDR), or that he will not see re-election due to his health.  In that case, a choice of a hard right wing VP (ie, Mike Huckabee) would make him instantly more viable in the eyes of many social conservatives, as their candidate of choice may easily accede to the Oval Office in only a few years.

Regarding Mike Huckabee, it has become quite obvious to me that he is no longer campaigning to be President in 2008, but in 2012 or 2016.  Huckabee is only 52, and he is currently increasing his "name recognition" by his campaign.  There is a chance, not a big one, that he will be the VP nominee under McCain, but if McCain fails to be a successful nominee or is unable to run in 2012 for the reasons stated above, Huckabee will be able to return as he left: a forerunner.  Remember, Huckabee spent the better part of a year trying to get recognition.  His appearance on shows like Late Night With Conan O'Brien, The Daily Show With Jon Stewart, and most notably, The Colbert Report (which he was on last night) has made him very appealing to the youth of today, and certainly his name will not be lost in 2012.  When he enters the race then, it will be as McCain was this year - someone who had already campaigned and was well known as a potential nominee.
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

I have read a number of times, including in Rolling Stone, that Huckabee is a Bible literalist who believes the earth is roughly 6000 years old.  Has anyone actually heard him say that or read a transcript in which he does? 
 
Re: USA Elections: Candidates Comparison

Yes.  He also doesn't believe in evolution, he believes homosexuality is sinful, and he believes that the Constitution must be re-written to follow God's laws.
 
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